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Invasion of Ukraine - A Systems Perspective

February 01, 2022 Initial Release. Last Modified: updated daily

We are each doing our part in this terrible time. Some do social media, some raise funds, some open their homes, some share their thoughts in conversations. I try to inform using the systems perspective. This systems analysis is constantly being updated. This web page is the most current.

By early February 2022, Russia placed a huge military presence on the Ukrainian border with an estimated 190,000 troops (USA assessment). On February 23, 2022 Russia began the invasion of Ukraine with missile strikes in Ukraine. At the heart of the Ukrainian and Russian conflict is the desire for Ukrainians to join NATO and western economies. Russia views this as an unacceptable situation and wants Ukraine to be under the Russian military and economic sphere of influence. As the war has unfolded it became clear that the war is about reconstituting the former Soviet Union as part of a new Russian Empire. The situation has escalated into a massive Russian military attack on the country of Ukraine. Prior to the invasion, there were statements from the west of war with the expectation that Russia would invade Ukraine. Japan, a distant country from the conflict, stated that it is siding with the Ukrainians in any possible armed conflict. Prior to the invasion the Ukrainians and Russians were claiming the west was over reacting. Ukrainians did not want internal panic.

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Table of Contents

  1. Ukrainian Invasion 02/01/22, 02/02/22, 02/25/22
    1. Preface 02/01/22, 04/22/22
    2. Background 02/01/22, 02/02/22, 03/01/22
      1. Overview of Ukraine 02/27/22, 02/28/22
      2. Ukrainian Constitution 11/19/22
      3. COVID-19 02/01/22
      4. Populations Affected 02/25/22
      5. Denuclearization for Guarantee of Territorial Integrity 02/01/22
      6. Ukraine Memorandum on Security Assurances 02/01/22
      7. Ukrainian Starvation 1932 - 1933 02/01/22
      8. Minimum Requirements for NATO Membership 02/01/22
      9. Ukrainian Citizens Embracing Russia 02/01/22
      10. Russian Interests 02/01/22
    3. Russian Empire Needs 03/03/22, 11/19/22
    4. Ukrainian Russian Borders and Internal Areas 11/25/22
      1. Lands Listed In Russian Constitution 11/19/22
      2. Maps Of Russian Lands 11/23/22
      3. Territorial Structure of Ukraine 11/19/22
      4. Maps Of Ukrainian Lands 11/23/22
    5. Key Speeches
      1. President Biden 02/18/22
        1. President Biden Announcing to the World Russia will Invade Ukraine 02/18/22
        2. President Biden's speech in Warsaw on Russia's invasion of Ukraine 03/28/22
      2. President Zelensky 02/19/22, 02/20/22
        1. President Zelensky - Day 2 Of Munich Security Conference 02/19/22
        2. Official Transcript from the Presidents Office 02/20/22
        3. President Zelensky Address to US Congress 03/16/22
      3. President Xi Jinping Video Call with US President Joe Biden 03/19/22
    6. Russia Invades Ukraine 02/23/22
      1. Military and Other Capabilities 02/23/22, 02/28/22
      2. Ukrainian History-1 02/23/22
      3. Ukrainian History 2 03/15/22
    7. Systems Assessment and Possible Scenarios 2/27/22, 03/04/22
    8. Policy Assessment 03/14/22, 03/26/22
    9. Gulf War versus Russian Invasion of Ukraine 04/09/22
    10. Ukrainian Refugees 04/10/22
    11. Ukrainian Values 04/10/22
    12. Ukrainian Food Production 04/10/22
    13. Russian Propaganda 04/10/22
    14. Peace 03/23/22
      1. Potential Russian Peace Demands 03/09/22
      2. Potential Ukrainian Peace Demands 03/09/22
    15. War Costs and Reparations 03/23/22
    16. Military Defense Systems 03/19/22
      1. Line of Site Close in Defense Systems
      2. Long Range Defense Systems 03/05/22, 10/11/22
      3. Counter Battery Weapon Tracking Radar (COBRA) 03/19/22
      4. Counter Rocket Artillery and Mortar (C-RAM) 03/05/22
      5. Air Defense Background 03/05/22
      6. Hughes Aircraft Ground Systems Group 03/27/22
    17. Equipment Provided To Ukraine 04/14/22
    18. Key Daily Events 02/25/22, daily update
      1. Events
      2. Daily Events and Systems Assessments

Research


Ukraine

Ukrainian Research Institute at Harvard University

Internet Encyclopedia of Ukraine

US Department of State - Ukraine

CIA World Factbook - Ukraine

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and Ukrainian Institute

President Zelensky

Servant of the People (political party)

Servant of the People


Systems Work

Systems Engineering For Peace

Systems Practices

Systems Design

Systems Perspective

Privatization

COVID-19


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Preface

Systems Perspective

This analysis is coming from a systems perspective. Governments around the world are now engaged in systems analysis of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Many associate the systems approach with engineering of large complex systems. Examples of large complex systems engineering from the previous century are the US Space Program, Air Defense, Air Traffic Control, etc. However, systems analysis is performed and used when addressing any complex problem that needs an effective solution. The following is offered as a definition of Systems Engineering: [1]

Discipline that concentrates on the design and application of the whole (system) as distinct from the parts. It involves looking at a problem in its entirety, taking into account all the facets and all the variables and relating the social to the technical aspect.

In a systems analysis effort for a problem of this magnitude all alternatives are examined that may be able to address the need and provide a viable solution. This requires massive resources and in the past the US government and a handful of systems companies performed this type of systems analysis. This is called large complex systems analysis.

For the specialists that are working their respective areas, in a systems effort they are represented and sit at the systems engineering table. As they present their analysis findings their work informs other specialists in completely different analysis areas. It is this cross fertilization that allows all specialists to broaden their perspectives and enables them to detect new patterns in their own body of work, especially if they are stuck. Systems analysis is the mechanism that allows specialists to quickly and effectively communicate their findings to completely different areas and significantly shift the overall results in a positive direction. This systems analysis is offered in that spirit of an effective systems activity.

One of the key challenges in systems analysis is to determine the key needs, key analysis, key requirements, and key system architecture approaches that will solve the problem. This is very difficult because there is the important consideration to filter out the noise (irrelevant) while not losing what may be the answer. There is an old saying that practitioners use to communicate this challenge: We don't care about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin and we can't throw out the baby with the bathwater.

One of the important elements that the systems perspective provides is that it includes the human condition in the system. The system solution must include the reality that people are part of the system and that they do not behave rationally. So the system must account for irrational human behavior otherwise it will fail or have very poor performance characteristics. Without the systems perspective this is always lost. The purpose of all the systems analysis is to enable the development of potential architectures and solutions. Eventually the architecture(s) and solution(s) must be selected.

Impact

We are all making a difference. This analysis had an impact with a website and formal media submissions. These are the areas where there was a direct correlation within 24 hours:

Would those items have surfaced anyway? The answer is no because toxic management talking points were starting in each of these areas. That is what motivated this systems analysis.

This is just like the claims in 2020 that Covid-19 was not airborne. A Covid-19 systems analysis was performed in 2020 that was impossible to deny or discredit, which clearly showed, using 5th grade math, that it is airborne and that the problem is massive in small indoor spaces, problematic in large indoor spaces, and extremely rare in outdoor spaces.

The Future

As the Ukrainians have said, there is a language of war that surfaces where all the vague statements disappear because there is no choice. There will be attempts to manage the story but the reality is too real in times of illness and war. Whole swaths of management are going to find their world views shattered and they will be replaced unless they adapt to this new world. If they are not replaced then get ready and hold on to you seats. A good example is what is about to happen to the Russian people.

At this point Russia went too far. I don’t know how all the worms can be put back in the can. Biden said a few weeks ago that Putin has to go. I can’t help but think that a signal has been sent. The signal is not from internal plans yet to unfold. The signal is from the fact that we all live in a natural system and the natural system will follow its path to achieve stability. This is a signal from our natural system that we call our world.

As far as this war going on for years, that is incorrect because this is full out war. Resources will be exhausted very soon. The question is which side will lose the capacity to fight first. NATO thinks it can supply Ukraine for years but the Ukrainians may not have anything left to defend. Unless an offensive begins, this will end soon and that is probably the Russian view.


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Background

Mother Russia - Renaissance (BBC site & Sound 1977) . Mother Russia - Renaissance (Live Carnegie Hall 1976)

Pays the price, works the seasons through
Frozen days, he thinks of you
Cold as ice but he burns for you
Mother Russia, can't you hear him too?

Mother's son, freedom's overdue
Lonely man, he thinks of you
He isn't done, only lives for you
Mother Russia, can't you hear him too?

Punished for his written thoughts
Starving for his fame
Working blindly, building blocks
Number for a name, his blood flows frozen to the snow

Red blood, white snow
He knows frozen rivers won't flow
So cold, so true
Mother Russia-he cries for you

Ooh ooh ...
Bah dah dah dah ...

Punished for his written thoughts
Starving for his fame
Working blindly, building blocks
Number for a name his blood flows frozen to the snow

Red blood, white snow
He knows frozen rivers won't flow
So cold, so true
Mother Russia-he cries for you


Songwriters: Betty Mary Thatcher / Michael Dunford
Singer: Annie Haslam

The song is a tribute to Russian writer Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, who had been forced by the Communist regime to leave the Soviet Union earlier in 1974. The lyrics are based on Solzhenitsyn's famous novel about Soviet repression, One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich. Because fans of the band were surprised at the move into topical songwriting, singer Annie Haslam has had often to point out to interviewers that "Mother Russia" really refers to Solzhenitsyn.

Musically, the full version of "Mother Russia" begins with a sparse, string-driven introduction marked by occasional piano crescendos. Around two minutes into the song, Haslam's voice enters, and the next three minutes of the song contain six verses in three pairs describing Solzhenitsyn's plight, in between which are short interludes of strings and acoustic guitar. The last five minutes of the full song consist of a three-minute instrumental interlude with the full band performing over wordless vocals by Haslam, followed by a repeat of the last two verses to finish. Recording engineer and co-producer Dick Plant stated: I think that the real thrust of the music came from John Tout's piano. I don't think Renaissance ever wanted to do anything that they couldn't reproduce on stage. The music to "Mother Russia" is credited to Michael Dunford, but the song is cited by Renaissance bassist Jon Camp as being a case where he made major composition contributions without being credited for them.

This song sums up the background of the current situation almost 40 years later. How sad.

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Overview of Ukraine

The following is from the CIA World Factbook for Ukraine. [11]

Ukraine was the center of the first eastern Slavic state, Kyivan Rus, which during the 10th and 11th centuries was the largest and most powerful state in Europe. Weakened by internecine quarrels and Mongol invasions, Kyivan Rus was incorporated into the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and eventually into the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. The cultural and religious legacy of Kyivan Rus laid the foundation for Ukrainian nationalism through subsequent centuries. A new Ukrainian state, the Cossack Hetmanate, was established during the mid-17th century after an uprising against the Poles. Despite continuous Muscovite pressure, the Hetmanate managed to remain autonomous for well over 100 years. During the latter part of the 18th century, most Ukrainian ethnographic territory was absorbed by the Russian Empire. Following the collapse of czarist Russia in 1917, Ukraine achieved a short-lived period of independence (1917-20), but was reconquered and endured a brutal Soviet rule that engineered two forced famines (1921-22 and 1932-33) in which over 8 million died. In World War II, German and Soviet armies were responsible for 7 to 8 million more deaths. Although Ukraine achieved independence in 1991 with the dissolution of the USSR, democracy and prosperity remained elusive as the legacy of state control and endemic corruption stalled efforts at economic reform, privatization, and civil liberties.

Absent from the CIA Factbook on Ukraine is the most significant event in human history. In 1994 the country of Ukraine had the world's third largest nuclear weapons stockpile. They gave up their nuclear weapons between 1994 and 1996 as part of an agreement that would ensure that its territorial integrity would be preserved. The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances is an agreement signed at the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Budapest, Hungary on December 5, 1994. The agreement was signed by three nuclear powers, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America. At the heart of this current war is the fact that this guarantee for security and territorial integrity was broken by Russia in 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine, annexed Crimea and occupied eastern Ukraine. It is unclear how such a significant event and agreement could be missing from the CIA Factbook on Ukraine. [1]

The Ukrainian climate is temperate continental; Mediterranean only on the southern Crimean coast; precipitation disproportionately distributed, highest in west and north, lesser in east and southeast; winters vary from cool along the Black Sea to cold farther inland; warm summers across the greater part of the country, hot in the south.

The terrain is mostly fertile plains (steppes) and plateaus, with mountains found only in the west (the Carpathians) or in the extreme south of the Crimean Peninsula. The Natural resources are iron ore, coal, manganese, natural gas, oil, salt, sulfur, graphite, titanium, magnesium, kaolin, nickel, mercury, timber, arable land. The land use is agricultural land: 71.2%, arable land: 56.1%, permanent crops: 1.5%, permanent pasture: 13.6% , forest: 16.8% , other: 12%.

The population is 44 million with Ethnic groups of Ukrainian 77.8%, Russian 17.3%, Belarusian 0.6%, Moldovan 0.5%, Crimean Tatar 0.5%, Bulgarian 0.4%, Hungarian 0.3%, Romanian 0.3%, Polish 0.3%, Jewish 0.2%, other 1.8%. The languages are Ukrainian (official) 67.5%, Russian (regional language) 29.6%, other (includes small Crimean Tatar, Moldovan/Romanian, and Hungarian speaking minorities) 2.9% (2001 est.); In February 2018, the Constitutional Court ruled that 2012 language legislation entitling a language spoken by at least 10% of an oblast's population to be given the status of regional language allowing for its use in courts, schools, and other government institutions was unconstitutional, thus making the law invalid; Ukrainian remains the country's only official nationwide language.

The religions are Orthodox (includes the Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU), Ukrainian Autocephalous Orthodox Church (UAOC), and the Ukrainian Orthodox - Moscow Patriarchate (UOC-MP)), Ukrainian Greek Catholic, Roman Catholic, Protestant, Muslim, Jewish. Ukraine's population is overwhelmingly Christian; the vast majority, up to two thirds, identify themselves as Orthodox, but many do not specify a particular branch; the OCU and the UOC-MP each represent less than a quarter of the country's population, the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church accounts for 8-10%, and the UAOC accounts for 1-2%; Muslim and Jewish adherents each compose less than 1% of the total population.

Major urban area population levels are 3.010 million KYIV (capital), 1.423 million Kharkiv, 1.008 million Odesa, 952,000 Dnipropetrovsk, 893,000 Donetsk (2022).The life expectancy at birth total population: 73.18 years, male: 68.51 years, female: 78.15 years (2021 est.)

After Russia, the Ukrainian Republic was the most important economic component of the former Soviet Union, producing about four times the output of the next ranking republic. Its fertile black soil accounted for more than one fourth of Soviet agricultural output, and its farms provided substantial quantities of meat, milk, grain, and vegetables to other republics. Likewise, its diversified heavy industry supplied unique equipment such as large diameter pipes and vertical drilling apparatus, and raw materials to industrial and mining sites in other regions of the former USSR.

After independence in August 1991, the Ukrainian Government liberalized most prices and erected a legal framework for privatization, but widespread resistance to reform within the government and the legislature soon stalled reform efforts and led to some backtracking. Output by 1999 had fallen to less than 40% of the 1991 level. Outside institutions, particularly the IMF encouraged Ukraine to quicken the pace and scope of reforms to foster economic growth. Ukrainian Government officials eliminated most tax and customs privileges in a March 2005 budget law, bringing more economic activity out of Ukraine's large shadow economy. From 2000 until mid-2008, Ukraine's economy was buoyant despite political turmoil between the prime minister and president. The economy contracted nearly 15% in 2009, among the worst economic performances in the world. In April 2010, Ukraine negotiated a price discount on Russian gas imports in exchange for extending Russia's lease on its naval base in Crimea.

Ukraine’s oligarch dominated economy grew slowly from 2010 to 2013 but remained behind peers in the region and among Europe’s poorest. After former President YANUKOVYCH fled the country during the Revolution of Dignity, Ukraine’s economy fell into crisis because of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, military conflict in the eastern part of the country, and a trade war with Russia, resulting in a 17% decline in GDP, inflation at nearly 60%, and dwindling foreign currency reserves. The international community began efforts to stabilize the Ukrainian economy, including a March 2014 IMF assistance package of $17.5 billion, of which Ukraine has received four disbursements, most recently in April 2017, bringing the total disbursed as of that date to approximately $8.4 billion. Ukraine has made progress on reforms designed to make the country prosperous, democratic, and transparent, including creation of a national anti-corruption agency, overhaul of the banking sector, establishment of a transparent VAT refund system, and increased transparency in government procurement. But more improvements are needed, including fighting corruption, developing capital markets, improving the business environment to attract foreign investment, privatizing state-owned enterprises, and land reform. The fifth tranche of the IMF program, valued at $1.9 billion, was delayed in mid-2017 due to lack of progress on outstanding reforms, including adjustment of gas tariffs to import parity levels and adoption of legislation establishing an independent anti-corruption court.

A peaceful mass protest referred to as the "Orange Revolution" in the closing months of 2004 forced the authorities to overturn a rigged presidential election and to allow a new internationally monitored vote that swept into power a reformist slate under Viktor YUSHCHENKO. Subsequent internal squabbles in the YUSHCHENKO camp allowed his rival Viktor YANUKOVYCH to stage a comeback in parliamentary (Rada) elections, become prime minister in August 2006, and be elected president in February 2010. In October 2012, Ukraine held Rada elections, widely criticized by Western observers as flawed due to use of government resources to favor ruling party candidates, interference with media access, and harassment of opposition candidates. President YANUKOVYCH's backtracking on a trade and cooperation agreement with the EU in November 2013 - in favor of closer economic ties with Russia - and subsequent use of force against students, civil society activists, and other civilians in favor of the agreement led to a three-month protest occupation of Kyiv's central square. The government's use of violence to break up the protest camp in February 2014 led to all out pitched battles, scores of deaths, international condemnation, a failed political deal, and the president's abrupt departure for Russia. New elections in the spring allowed pro-West president Petro POROSHENKO to assume office in June 2014; he was succeeded by Volodymyr ZELENSKY in May 2019. Pixabay Image [12]

After YANUKOVYCH's departure in late February 2014, Russian President PUTIN ordered the invasion of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula falsely claiming the action was to protect ethnic Russians living there. Two weeks later, a "referendum" was held regarding the integration of Crimea into the Russian Federation. The "referendum" was condemned as illegitimate by the Ukrainian Government, the EU, the US, and the UN General Assembly (UNGA). In response to Russia's illegal annexation of Crimea, 100 members of the UN passed UNGA resolution 68/262, rejecting the "referendum" as baseless and invalid and confirming the sovereignty, political independence, unity, and territorial integrity of Ukraine. In mid-2014, Russia began supplying proxies in two of Ukraine's eastern provinces with manpower, funding, and materiel driving an armed conflict with the Ukrainian Government that continues to this day. Representatives from Ukraine, Russia, and the unrecognized Russian proxy republics signed the Minsk Protocol and Memorandum in September 2014 to end the conflict. However, this agreement failed to stop the fighting or find a political solution. In a renewed attempt to alleviate ongoing clashes, leaders of Ukraine, Russia, France, and Germany negotiated a follow-on Package of Measures in February 2015 to implement the Minsk agreements. Representatives from Ukraine, Russia, the unrecognized Russian proxy republics, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe also meet regularly to facilitate implementation of the peace deal. More than 14,000 civilians have been killed or wounded as a result of the Russian intervention in eastern Ukraine.

Russia’s occupation of Crimea in March 2014 and ongoing Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine have hurt economic growth. With the loss of a major portion of Ukraine’s heavy industry in Donbas and ongoing violence, the economy contracted by 6.6% in 2014 and by 9.8% in 2015, but it returned to low growth in in 2016 and 2017, reaching 2.3% and 2.0%, respectively, as key reforms took hold. Ukraine also redirected trade activity towards the EU following the implementation of a bilateral Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement, displacing Russia as its largest trading partner. A prohibition on commercial trade with separatist-controlled territories in early 2017 has not impacted Ukraine’s key industrial sectors as much as expected, largely because of favorable external conditions. Ukraine returned to international debt markets in September 2017, issuing a $3 billion sovereign bond.

*** END CIA Factbook ***

The following map and text is from Nations Online https://www.nationsonline.org. [13]

Political Map of Ukraine
https://www.nationsonline.org

The map shows Ukraine and surrounding countries with international borders, major rivers and lakes, the highest mountains, the national capital Kyiv (Kiev), oblast centers, major cities, main roads, railroads, and major airports. The map also shows the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula and the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, the former occupied by Russia and the latter controlled by pro-Russian militants.

Ukraine is the largest country in Eastern Europe (including Crimea). It is the second-largest country in Europe after European Russia. It is twice the size of Italy and slightly smaller than the US state of Texas. Ukraine borders Belarus, Hungary, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Russia, and Slovakia.

Administrative Map of Ukraine
https://www.nationsonline.org

About 95% of the country is flat, because it is located on the territory of the East European Plain. Ukraine's fertile land was known as the breadbasket of the Soviet Union. It has become the breadbasket of Europe. There are only two regions in the country where there are mountains: in the western part of Ukraine are the Eastern Carpathians, part of the Carpathian Mountains, a mountain range that spans Central and Eastern Europe. There is the highest mountain in Ukraine, Mount Hoverla, at 2061 meters. In the southern part of the Crimean Peninsula are the Crimean Mountains, which stretch along the southeast coast of the Black Sea for a length of about 150 km. Roman-Kosh is the highest elevation of the Crimean Mountains with 1545 m. Ukraine's major rivers are the Dniester, the Southern Bug (Pivdennyi Buh), the Desna, the Donets, and the Dnieper (Dnipro), a vital waterway and the longest river in Ukraine with its large water reservoirs, the Kremenchuk Reservoir and the Kakhovka Reservoir.

The busiest airports in Ukraine are:

*** END Nations Online https://www.nationsonline.org ***

The Ukrainian flag is shown below. The colors represent the Blue sky and the color of the Wheat fields.

Ukrainian Flag

Ukraine consists of Oblasts known as Provinces in other other countries. The US Government does not recognize Russia's illegal annexation of Ukraine's Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the municipality of Sevastopol, nor their redesignation as the Republic of Crimea and the Federal City of Sevastopol. From the Ukranian constitution Article 133. The system of the administrative and territorial structure of Ukraine is composed of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, oblasts, districts, cities, city districts, settlements and villages. Ukraine is composed of:

  1. The Autonomous Republic of Crimea,
  2. Vinnytsia Oblast,
  3. Volyn Oblast,
  4. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast,
  5. Donetsk Oblast,
  6. Zhytomyr Oblast,
  7. Zakarpattia Oblast,
  8. Zaporizhia Oblast,
  9. Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, (region of Galicia)
  10. Kyiv Oblast,
  11. Kirovohrad Oblast,
  12. Luhansk Oblast,
  13. Lviv Oblast, (region of Galicia)
  14. Mykolayiv Oblast,
  15. Odesa Oblast,
  16. Poltava Oblast,
  17. Rivne Oblast,
  18. Sumy Oblast,
  19. Ternopil Oblast, (region of Galicia)
  20. Kharkiv Oblast,
  21. Kherson Oblast,
  22. Khmelnytskyi Oblast,
  23. Cherkasy Oblast,
  24. Chernivtsi Oblast,
  25. Chernihiv Oblast,
  26. and the Cities of Kyiv and Sevastopol.

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Ternopil - Harbuziw Village

Ternopil is a city in western Ukraine and serves as the administrative centre of Ternopil Oblast, it has the status of city of oblast significance. Located on the banks of the Seret. Ternopil is one of the major cities of Western Ukraine and the historical regions of Galicia and Podolia. It is served by Ternopil Airport.

The city was founded in 1540 by Polish commander and Hetman Jan Amor Tarnowski, as a military stronghold and castle. It passed bewteen what we know of as German, Polish, and Russian control for centuries and decades. Currently the National structure of Ternopil Oblast - 1,138.5 (100%) is:

Ther languages in Ternopil are:

The Soviet invasion of Poland began on September 17, 1939. The Red Army entered eastern Poland in furtherance of the secret Molotov - Ribbentrop Pact between Germany and Russia and contrary to the Soviet Polish Non Aggression Pact. Tarnopol was captured, renamed Ternopol (in Russian) or Ternopil (in Ukrainian), and incorporated into the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic under Ternopol Oblast. The Soviets made it their first priority to decimate the Polish intelligentsia and destroy Ukrainian political movements. Ukrainian nationalist leaders were imprisoned. Mass arrests, torture, and executions of Ukrainians, Poles and Jews followed. The Soviets also carried out mass deportations of enemies of the working class to Kazakhstan; They were former state administration, police, border service, and land and business owners, Christians and Jews alike.

On July 02, 1941, the city was occupied by the Nazis who immediately led a Jewish pogrom. Several thousand Jews were murdered until the Germans ordered the program stopped. Jews were murdered, sent to Belzec extermination camp, and to labor camps by Nazi Germans. During most of this time Jews lived in the Tarnopol Ghetto. Many Ukrainians were sent as forced labor to Germany.

In the years 1942 - 1943, the Polish Armia Krajowa was active opposing Nazi rule and performing operations to incorporate Ternopil into a future Polish state. Ukrainians, politically represented by Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN), fought for the creation of an independent state. In the years 1942 - 1949, the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) was active in Ternopil region and battled for independence of Ukraine opposing Nazis, the Soviets, and the Polish Armia Krajowa and People's Army of Poland.

During the Soviet offensive in March and April 1944, the city was encircled. In March 1944, the city was declared a fortified place (Gates to the Reich) by Adolf Hitler, to be defended until the last round was fired. The stiff German resistance caused extensive use of heavy artillery by the Red Army on March 7 - 8 resulting in the complete destruction of the city and killing of nearly all German occupants. Unlike many other occasions, where the Germans had practised a scorched earth policy during their withdrawal from territories of the Soviet Union, the devastation was caused directly by the hostilities. Finally, Ternopol was occupied by the Red Army on April 15 ,1944. After the second Soviet occupation, 85% of the city's living quarters were destroyed.

From 1944 to 1949 (active) and 1949 to 1956 (localized) the Ukrainian Insurgent Army resisted Soviet rule in the region and fought for Ukrainian independence.

Following the defeat of Nazi Germany, the ethnic Polish population of Ternopil and its region was forcibly deported to postwar Poland and settled in, and near Wroclaw (among other locations), as part of Stalinist ethnic cleansing in the Soviet Ukraine. In the following decades, Ternopil was rebuilt in a typical Soviet style and only a few buildings were reconstructed. Following the fall of the Soviet Union, Ternopil became part of the independent Ukraine.

[ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ternopil]

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Galicia - Oslavichi Village

Galicia lies within the modern regions of western Ukraine: the Lviv, Ternopil, and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts near Halych.

[ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galicia_(Eastern_Europe)]

back to TOC


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Ukrainian Constitution

This text was accessed from the Internet on December 28, 2005.

CONSTITUTION OF UKRAINE


Adopted at the Fifth Session
of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine
on 28 June 1996


PREAMBLE
CHAPTER I GENERAL PRINCIPLES
CHAPTER II THE RIGHTS, FREEDOMS, AND DUTIES OF INDIVIDUALS AND CITIZENS
CHAPTER III ELECTIONS; REFEREND
CHAPTER IV THE SUPREME RADA OF UKRAINE
CHAPTER V THE PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE
CHAPTER VI THE CABINET OF MINISTERS OF UKRAINE;OTHER ORGANS OF EXECUTIVE AUTHORITY
CHAPTER VII THE PROCURACY
CHAPTER VIII THE JUSTICE SYSTEM
CHAPTER IX TERRITORIAL STRUCTURE OF UKRAINE
CHAPTER X THE AUTONOMOUS REPUBLIC OF CRIMEA
CHAPTER XI LOCAL SELF-GOVERNMENT
CHAPTER XII THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT OF UKRAINE
CHAPTER XIII AMENDING THE CONSTITUTION OF UKRAINE
CHAPTER XIV FINAL PROVISIONS
CHAPTER XV TRANSITIONAL PROVISIONS


Chapter I
General Principles

Article 1

Article 2

Article 3

Article 4

Article 5

Article 6

Article 7

Article 8

Article 9

Article 10

Article 11

Article 12

Article 13

Article 14

Article 15

Article 16

Article 17

Article 18

Article 19

Article 20


Chapter II
Human and Citizens' Rights, Freedoms and Duties

Article 21

Article 22

Article 23

Article 24

Article 25

Article 26

Article 27

Article 28

Article 29

Article 30

Article 31

Article 32

Article 33

Article 34

Article 35

Article 36

Article 37

Article 38

Article 39

Article 40

Article 41

Article 42

Article 43

Article 44

Article 45

Article 46

Article 47

Article 48

Article 49

Article 50

Article 51

Article 52

Article 53

Article 54

Article 55

Article 56

Article 57

Article 58

Article 59

Article 60

Article 61

Article 62

Article 63

Article 64

Article 65

Article 66

Article 67

Article 68


Chapter III
Elections. Referendum

Article 69

Article 70

Article 71

Article 72

Article 73

Article 74


Chapter IV
Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine

Article 75

Article 76

Article 77

Article 78

Article 79

Article 80

Article 81

Article 82

Article 83

Article 84

Article 85

Article 86

Article 87

Article 88

Article 89

Article 90

Article 91

Article 92

Article 93

Article 94

Article 95

Article 96

Article 97

Article 98

Article 99

Article 100

Article 101


Chapter V
President of Ukraine

Article 102

Article 103

Article 104

Article 105

Article 106

Article 107

Article 108

Article 109

Article 110

Article 111

Article 112


Chapter VI
Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine. Other Bodies of Executive Power

Article 113

Article 114

Article 115

Article 116

Article 117

Article 118

Article 119

Article 120


Chapter VII
Procuracy

Article 121

Article 122

Article 123


Chapter VIII
Justice

Article 124

Article 125

Article 126

Article 127

Article 128

Article 129

Article 130

Article 131


Chapter IX
Territorial Structure of Ukraine

Article 132

Article 133


Chapter X
Autonomous Republic of Crimea

Article 134

Article 135

Article 136

Article 137

Article 138

Article 139


Chapter XI
Local Self-Government

Article 140

Article 141

Article 142

Article 143

Article 144

Article 145

Article 146


Chapter XII
Constitutional Court of Ukraine

Article 147

Article 148

Article 149

Article 150

Article 151

Article 152

Article 153


Chapter XIII
Introducing Amendments to the Constitution of Ukraine

Article 154

Article 155

Article 156

Article 157

Article 158

Article 159


Chapter XIV
Final Provisions

Article 160

Article 161


Chapter XV
Transitional Provisions


Official English translation.
The only authentic text is the text in the state language of Ukraine.

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COVID-19

It is clear that Russia is using the COVID-19 disaster to its advantage to further its internal goals, while the world has been dealing with the COVID-19 disaster. COVID-19 is a massive destabilization event with massive international and internal consequences yet to be felt and understood. Putin clearly concluded that now was the time to strike and invade Ukraine as part of a long term policy goal going back decades.

There is COVID-19 Research From A Systems Perspective but it is not related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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Populations Affected

The following table shows the countries affected by Russian invasions and the population levels. It also shows countries that were admitted into NATO and their population levels.

Country

NATO Entry

Russian Invasions

Population (million)

Comments

Russia

NA

144

Belarus

NA

9.4

Russian Ally. Stated that they would use Nuclear weapons.

Ukraine

Rejected by NATO

2014 part 2022 full

44

Ukraine Memorandum on Security Assurances was not honored by the USA and UK. Russia also signed the agreement but they broke the agreement with the first invasion in 2014, which resulted in Ukrainian territories being conquered by Russia.

Bulgaria

2004

7

Estonia

2004

1

Latvia

2004

2

Lithuania

2004

2.8

Romania

2004

19

Slovakia

2004

5.5

Slovenia

2004

2

Albania

2009

2.8

Croatia

2009

4

Montenegro

2017

0.6

North Macedonia

2020

2

Georgia

2008

10.6

Syria

2015

17.5

NOTES: NATO alliance exists to protect against possible Russian invasion. Ukraine Memorandum on Security Assurances existed to protect Ukraine from invasion from any source.

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Denuclearization for Guarantee of Territorial Integrity

The root cause goes back to when the country of Ukraine gave away their nuclear weapons for a guarantee of territorial integrity signed by the US, Russia, and UK, etc. When the revolution happened in Ukraine, Russia claimed that original agreement no longer applied because that government collapsed and an illegal government was established. [1]

At the heart of the Trump impeachment is the country of Ukraine and its struggle with the invasion from Russia, loss of its territorial integrity, and a commitment made by the USA. When Trump left office, the US policy towards Russia returned to its previous approach. [1]

In 1994 the country of Ukraine had the world's third largest nuclear weapons stockpile. They gave up their nuclear weapons between 1994 and 1996 as part of an agreement that would ensure that its territorial integrity would be preserved. The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances is an agreement signed at the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Budapest, Hungary on December 5, 1994. The agreement was signed by three nuclear powers, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America. [1]

By the start of the new century the US started to make business deals and investments in Russia especially for the development of its oil resources. The same was happening in Ukraine on a smaller scale. The people of Ukraine had a strong distaste of the Russian communists who were brutal to them and they wanted to align themselves more with Western Europe and perhaps become part of NATO. This eventually led to an internal revolution where the Russian friendly Ukraine president was removed from power. Russia panicked and invaded Ukraine and gained control of Crimea. [1]

The countries that signed the treaty to protect Ukraine responded with economic sanctions on Russia. This caused all the business deals in Russia to come to a standstill. Meanwhile Russia acting in its own interest wanted to shift the political landscape in the USA so that the sanctions would be removed. [1]

Unexpectedly the US people elected President Trump who himself and his key backers had significant business interests in Russia. These business interests were fully known and disclosed in the popular media before and after the election. When Trump entered office, his policies were friendly towards Russia. [1]

President Trump with little knowledge or respect for the government that he found himself leading made a serious mistake and betrayed his public trust by trying to force the Ukrainian President to make public statements about a political rival, Vice President Biden’s son, in exchange for arms previously agreed to be provided to Ukraine to defend themselves against the Russian attack and Crimean territorial annexation in Ukraine. It is obvious that President Trump was trying to restart business interests in Russia but he may have given aid and comfort to an enemy country. Aiding the enemy in time of war is the only way someone can be charged for treason under the US constitution. The attack on Ukraine was an attack on the US because of the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances and the enormous sacrifice and trust the Ukrainians had when giving away their nuclear arms. [1]

Lost in all of this is the fact that Ukraine gave up their nuclear missiles and when the time came to protect them nothing happened. The message to powers seeking nuclear capability like North Korea and Iran is clear and the precedent has been set for a generation. As the US struggled with short term impeachment of Trump, the long-term policy impacts on nuclear weapons are huge and will last decades. The situation is very serious. Cause and effect and balance of power move history. [1]

The roots of this tragedy may be traceable to government privatization. Privatization is a worldwide trend that included Russia. Unfortunately, Russian defense conversion and privatization did not go well. They did not have 100 years of history to tune the system and protect against extremes as nation state assets were being claimed. This affected their internal policies and ultimately their approach to the country of Ukraine. [1]

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Ukraine Memorandum on Security Assurances

There was great hope when the Berlin Wall came down and then great joy that the world had one less nuclear annihilation threat on our small blue plant. Below is the document that was supposed to protect the country of Ukraine from invasion in exchange for Ukraine eliminating all its nuclear weapons. The following is the Ukraine Memorandum on Security Assurances: [1]

Ukraine Memorandum on Security Assurances

Memorandum on Security Assurances in connection with Ukraine's accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, December 5, 1994.

The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland,

Welcoming the accession of Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear-weapon State,

Taking into account the commitment of Ukraine to eliminate all nuclear weapons from its territory within a specified period of time,

Noting the changes in the world-wide security situation, including the end of the Cold War, which have brought about conditions for deep reductions in nuclear forces.

Confirm the following:

1. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.

2. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.

3. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to refrain from economic coercion designed to subordinate to their own interest the exercise by Ukraine of the rights inherent in its sovereignty and thus to secure advantages of any kind.

4. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, as a non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.

5. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm, in the case of the Ukraine, their commitment not to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon State Party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of an attack on themselves, their territories or dependent territories, their armed forces, or their allies, by such a state in association or alliance with a nuclear weapon state.

6. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will consult in the event a situation arises which raises a question concerning these commitments.

This Memorandum will become applicable upon signature.

Signed in four copies having equal validity in the English, Russian and Ukrainian languages.

In 1991 the doomsday clock was set to 17 minutes before midnight. The dream of a nation state sacrificing its nuclear weapons did not set the clock back further in 1994 when the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances was signed. Instead by 1998 the clock moved to 14 minutes before midnight. The sacrifice of the Ukrainians was ignored. The clock as of 2018 is at 2 minutes before midnight. [1]

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Ukrainian Starvation 1932 - 1933

The Holodomor also known as the Terror Famine or the Great Famine, was a famine in Soviet Ukraine from 1932 to 1933 that killed millions of Ukrainians. It was a large part of the wider Soviet famine of 1932 to 1933. The term Holodomor emphasises the famine's man made aspects such as rejection of outside aid, confiscation of all household foodstuffs, and restriction of population movement. The Spanish, French, British, and Dutch had their colonies to access food. Since 2006, the Holodomor has been recognized by Ukraine and 15 other countries as a genocide of the Ukrainian people carried out by the Soviet government. The world may ignore that sad history but the Russians and Ukrainians never forgot it. [2]

The Russians know the importance of Ukrainian food and the Ukrainians know the brutality of the Russians toward the Ukrainians.

There are key questions that are lost to history but are important to understand the current situation:

  1. It is unclear why the Ukrainians were not made part of NATO as part of the deal to denuclearize the country of Ukraine.
  2. It is unclear why Russia was not invited to join NATO as part of the deal to denuclearize the country of Ukraine.

So perhaps an invite to Russia and Ukraine by NATO plus a guarantee of access to food was step A in any Russian negotiation? The reality is NATO was created to protect Eastern Europe from the Russian Empire. It behaved like an empire for centuries and it was unclear if its internal culture had changed. Give what has happened with the invasion of Ukraine it is obvious that having Russia join NATO would have been disastrous.

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Minimum Requirements for NATO Membership

There are requirements that must be met if a country requests to join NATO [3]. They are as follows:

Minimum Requirements for NATO Membership

Fact sheet prepared by the Bureau of European and Canadian Affairs, June 30, 1997.

NATO membership is potentially open to all of Europe's emerging democracies that share the alliance's values and are ready to meet the obligations of membership.

There is no checklist for membership.

We have made clear that, at a minimum, candidates for membership must meet the following five requirements:

--New members must uphold democracy, including tolerating diversity.

--New members must be making progress toward a market economy.

--Their military forces must be under firm civilian control.

--They must be good neighbors and respect sovereignty outside their borders.

--They must be working toward compatibility with NATO forces.

Again, while these criteria are essential, they do not constitute a checklist leading automatically to NATO membership.

New members must be invited by a consensus of current members.

Decisions to invite new members must take into account the required ratification process in the member states. In the case of the United States, decisions are made in consultation with Congress.

The key determinant for any invitation to new members is whether their admission to NATO will strengthen the alliance and further the basic objective of NATO enlargement, which is to increase security and stability across Europe.

It is important to understand that there are cultural differences between Russians and Ukrainians. Russians have historically been ruled by Czars and totalitarian forms of government. Ukrainians while tolerant of Czar forms of government hate totalitarian forms of government because of their experiences in the last century.

Some scholars have classified the famine in Ukraine and Kazakhstan as genocides, which were committed by Stalin's government, targeting ethnic Ukrainians and Kazakhs, while others focus on the class dynamics between the land owning peasants (kulaks) with strong political interest in private property, freedom, and liberty versus the ruling Soviet Communist party's fundamental tenets which oppose those interests. In other words Ukrainians are oriented more towards democratic ideas and ways of life that naturally surface in self sufficient agrarian settings. [2]

The following table is an analysis of the feasibility of Russia or Ukraine joining NATO.

NATO Membership Minimum Requirements Ukraine Russia Comments
1. New members must uphold democracy, including tolerating diversity.

Yes

Democracy no, diversity yes Show Stopper for Russia. Russia is on record of rejecting Democracy.
2. New members must be making progress toward a market economy.

Yes

Oligarchy is desired approach
3. Their military forces must be under firm civilian control.

Yes

Unclear
4. They must be good neighbors and respect sovereignty outside their borders.

Yes

No Massive Show Stopper for Russia, massive military with recent history of invasions of other countries.
5. They must be working toward compatibility with NATO forces.

Desired

Possible

While Ukraine can meet all 5 of the NATO membership minimum requirements, Russia unfortunately cannot meet 2 critical requirements for NATO Membership. They are rejecting Democracy (Req 1) and they keep invading other countries (Red 4). Even though Russia is not a NATO member it is a NATO partner country and has worked with NATO to deal with issues around the world.

Author Comment: This is so sad for the Russian leaders and people. This is why government officials need to be voted out of office frequently before they do massive damage.

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Ukrainian Citizens Embracing Russia

There is no question that there are Ukrainian citizens exchanging their citizenship for Russia. This is part of a Russian program where incentives such as Russian retirement benefits that are larger than Ukrainian retirement benefits require rejection of Ukrainian citizenship. An alternative would be to permit dual citizenship so that people could claim the benefits that they earned both in Russia and Ukraine. This is just one of many policy choices being made by Russia in an attempt to dismantle the country of Ukraine and bring it into a new emerging Russian sphere of influence. It is unclear what the final end state condition is from the Russian perspective. Is the goal to keep Ukraine a standalone country in close alliance with Russia, convert it to a brutally subjugated satellite country, or make it a state as part of a new Russian country with multiple states?

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Russian Interests

In February 2022 Russia formally responded to diplomatic requests that NATO roll back its encroachment on Russia and that Ukraine never be permitted to join NATO. The Ukrainian element shows how closely Russia feels its interests are related to Ukraine. The following illustrates Russian concerns. [4]

Since 1999 multiple countries have been added to NATO. All the while Russia is still a NATO partner country and does participate.

NATO Member States [5]

The member states of NATO are: Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States.

In the order of joining NATO:

NATO partner countries are: Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Finland, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Georgia, Ireland, Kazakhstan, Kyrghyz Republic, Malta, The Republic of Moldova, Russia, Serbia, Sweden, Switzerland, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan.

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Russian Empire Needs

It is time (March 3, 2022) to start the systems analysis that has not been performed for decades. This systems analysis is associated with empires.

Empires need natural resources, water, food, workers, and to satisfy the rich (oligarchs). Empires are needed to maintain a leisure class at the top of the empire social structure.

Empires are also driven by threats. The threats include internal cultural trends and external country or other empire threats.

In the end, a country will prevail based on its population level. It is rare when population is not a factor. There needs to be other limiting factors and in the past the limiting factors for empires were distance and oceans. In this century distance and oceans have become irrelevant. Today the limiting factor to a potential threat of invasion is the ultimate threat of the use of nuclear weapons, which Ukraine gave away as part of the Ukraine Memorandum on Security Assurances agreement.

A fundamental question is: Which is more important, the NATO agreement or the Ukraine Memorandum on Security Assurances? History will clearly show that the Ukraine Memorandum on Security Assurances was the most important agreement in all history. It is the ultimate sacrifice and promise. No one can walk away from this, and no management talking points or selective memory will change this fact. What does this suggest for small NATO countries is a key question. Confidence is clearly shaken.

Other possible reasons (needs) for why Russia may have decided to rebuild the Russian empire:

  1. Chernobyl: The liability associated with the Chernobyl disaster is gone.
  2. Oligarchs Sucked out Wealth: There is no place for the rich and beautiful to live except Moscow. The oligarchs sucked out all the wealth, so the small cities and towns are undesirable locations.
  3. Land Locked: Russia is too land locked, it is too hard to fly into the EU and other desirable locations.
  4. Global Warming: Russia has concluded something about global warming and they need to expand Russian territory.
  5. Russians Not Welcomed: Russians are not welcomed in other countries. The rich like living in those nice locations rather than Moscow or the poor neglected Russian cities and towns.

The following table shows the affected countries and why Russia may want to conquer a country. It shows the risk phase to suggest the level of risk and an order of possible invasion and conquest.

Country

NATO Entry

Russian Invasion

Population (million)

Russian Empire Needs

Russia

NA

NA

144

Belarus

NA

NA

9.4

Ukraine

Rejected by NATO

2014 part 2022 full

44

2014: Seaport, factories, workers.
2022: Food, land, workers, comfortable cities and living spaces, remove cultural threat, take Ukranian oligarchs wealth

Georgia

No

2008

10.6

Syria

No

2015

17.5

Bulgaria

2004

Risk Phase 1

7

Estonia

2004

Baltic State Risk Phase 1

1

High income state workers

Latvia

2004

Baltic State Risk Phase 1

2

High income state workers

Lithuania

2004

Baltic State Risk Phase 1

2.8

High income state workers

Romania

2004

Risk Phase 1

19

Slovakia

2004

Risk Phase 1

5.5

Slovenia

2004

Risk Phase 1

2

Albania

2009

Risk Phase 1

2.8

Croatia

2009

Risk Phase 1

4

Montenegro

2017

Risk Phase 1

0.6

North Macedonia

2020

Risk Phase 1

2

Poland

Yes

Risk Phase 2

38

East Germany

Yes

Risk Phase 3

16 (2016)

EU

Yes

None

447

remove external country or other empire threats

UK

Yes

None

62

remove external country or other empire threats

USA

Yes

None

330

remove external country or other empire threats

of Moldova, Russia, Serbia, Sweden, Switzerland, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan.

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Ukrainian Russian Borders and Internal Areas

Examining the external borders and internal areas of Russia and Ukraine is critical in understanding the Russian - Ukrainian war. These borders are encoded in their constitutions. When this systems analysis was started there were no observations or conclusions. There was only the desire to understand the borders and internal areas of each country. Examining the borders and internal areas has resulted in some significant system observations and recommendations.

  1. Lands Listed In Russian Constitution
  2. Maps Of Russian Lands
  3. Territorial Structure of Ukraine
  4. Maps Of Ukrainian Lands

System Observations and Recommendations

The system observations are offered at the start of this section rather than at the end. You can jump to the various sections and come back and read the system observations or just keep reading.

When we in the United States think of a country, we have a mental model based on the structure of the Continental United Starts (CONUS). There is the external country boundary and then there are states with the states further subdivided into counties, cities, and towns. We also tend to think in terms of regions like: New England, Mid-Atlantic, South, Midwest, Southwest, Pacific West Coast and somtimes the Rocky Mountains. However, the CONUS United States is more or less homogeneous in terms of peoples, culture, and political operations. The United States includes non-CONUS regions like the state of Hawaii and Puerto Rico. Then there are the United States Protectorates (Territories) American Samoa, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands and 9 uninhabited areas. However, the primary mental model is CONUS based. It is a non-empire based mental model. It is a united states model.

Russia is different and a different mental model needs to be used to attempt to understand Russia. Russia itself exists and it is also a federation of multiple Republics. The term federation is a polite word that essentially is an empire when the Republics are subjugated. Russia itself consists of Oblasts, which are similar to states in the United States. Examining the Republics within Russia is important because they exist within Russia and Russia is fragmented by the Republics. This situation is analogous to what existed in the very distant past in the United States where the South and Texas did not want to join the union when the United States was forming. The founders knew the situation that existed in Europe during their time. They knew that they needed a United States. Those forces in the South and Texas still exist but they are not in the main stream, instead they are a lunatic fringe from people lost in some nostalgic distant past that did not exist. In Russia it is different. The Union never happened. There is fragmentation and division in Russia and it uses force to keep the Republics in line.

Russia - Republics 1 to 21 [1]

Russia - Oblasts 1-49 [2]

Russia - Territories 1-9 [3]

Ukraine is a different story. Ukraine, unlike the current Russian republics, is not embedded within a fragmented Russia. Instead it is a distinct contiguous land of people that share the same culture, language, history, and world view. It is a separate nation state with logical borders. Like the United States, Ukraine has other peoples within its borders including large numbers of Russian people with cultural ties to Russia. However, from a nation state perspective, they are a minority in the country, but may form a majority is some Ukrainian areas. Unfortunately, like in the United States hundreds of years ago, where the South and Texas dreamed of not being part of the United States, there were Russians that had that dream. However, as part of this war which started in 2014 that dream is gone and these people now view themselves as Ukrainians. They do not share the world view that Russia has of itself as an empire or federation. Instead they have a modern Ukrainian world view. They are a new people similar to people in the United States that came from different parts of the world. They may remember their roots, but fundamentally like in the United States, they are now Ukrainians with possible families in Russia.

Ukraine with 1 Republic Crimea [5]
Includes the hash marked areas

Russia with Republics 1 to 21 [1]

This is the map of modern Ukraine. There is no reason to go back hundreds of years and make references to long lost kingdoms, tribes, and lands. They are long gone. It has Oblasts (states) that are grouped into regions. It has one republic, Crimea. These are the official borders established decades ago and guaranteed by the Ukraine Memorandum on Security Assurances when Ukraine gave up their Nuclear weapons. No amount of Russian propaganda will change this fact. However, war does redraw geographic boundaries. Ukraine is at war with Russia and is currently engaged in a defensive war.

Ukraine Regions, Oblasts, and Republic of Crimea [4] [5]
Copyright: This map is released by Cassbeth in full for any purpose.

Since the fall of the Berlin wall Russia has maintained a massive propaganda machine to discredit Ukrainian ways and put in place puppet rulers that the Ukrainians rejected. The Ukrainians first removed the Russian puppets and then they constantly reached out to the West. What the Ukrainians did not do is push back on the Russian propaganda that attempted to discredit Ukraine and its people.

So what are the Ukrainian ways?

They have stated them repeatedly during this horrible Russian attack on Ukraine - True Democracy and the implication of Freedom and Liberty and not only in words but as a way of life.

This is not rocket science, Russia wants an empire because Russia benefits from the empire and they use extreme force to ensure that the empire is maintained. However, they are living in a delusional past from hundreds of years ago. Russia fears that if Ukraine joins the west, its' internal Republics will break away. All these Republics have their own stories just like Ukraine. They may remain with Russia or they may break away in the future. The Russian internal Republics may have many common interests with Russia. Russia may not have mistreated them in the same way that Russia mistreated the Ukrainians. However, the Ukrainians had no choice but to reach out to the west because of Russian actions since the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Because Russia has a different mental model of a nation state, Russian propaganda targets the United States Southern and Texas lunatic fringe using social media and unregulated talk radio and Cable TV stations as it attempts to disrupt the United States. They do not understand that people in the United States find this as silly. The United States has not been fragmented in hundreds of years and will never fragment because the ties are too tight to break. It is the same in Ukraine. They are united against Russia, and Ukraine will never break and be subjugated again now that Russia launched its horrible war against its' people.

On November 24, 2022 Olena Zelenska told the BBC that Ukraine will endure this coming winter despite the cold and the blackouts caused by Russian missiles, and they will keep fighting what she describes as a war of world views, because "without victory there can be no peace". "We've had so many terrible challenges, seen so many victims, so much destruction, that blackouts are not the worst thing to happen to us." She cites a recent poll where 90% of Ukrainians said they were ready to live with electricity shortages for two to three years if they could see the prospect of joining the European Union. Olena Zelenska basically stated that they are prepared to fight this war for 2-3 years if it means eventual entry into the European Union. They have had it with Russia. Even if they never join the European Union they will never accept Russian subjugation.

A key question to ask is why now? Russia has been suppressing Ukrainians for generations, why have the Ukrainians decided to now reject Russia .

Many claim that the Soviet Union collapsed because of the massive arms race and Russia could no longer sustain that spending. Others claim the Chernobyl disaster caused Russia to dump the massive liability and they decided to release the satellite countries washing their hands of the Chernobyl disaster. Estimates for the Chernobyl cleanup provided by Canadian TV at the time exceeded $10 trillion dollars. A number that would consume an entire generation of Russian Gross Domestic Product (GDP). There was even a popular science fiction Star Trek movie made about a similar scenario. Gorbachev in April 2006 wrote "The nuclear meltdown at Chernobyl 20 years ago this month, even more than my launch of perestroika, was perhaps the real cause of the collapse of the Soviet Union." I claim that the camcorders and fax machines from Japan caused the collapse as people being attacked by their childhood friends were being video taped and threatened that the video tapes would be sent to their mothers. The collapse of the Soviet Union was probably due to all these causes and others yet to be identified.

Again, why has Russia started this war without fear and why has Ukraine decided to fight? In the case of Russia, apparently they feel that they are in full control of their internal media and messaging. In the case of Ukraine they had access to Newspapers, TV, Radio, Books, and Music but the Newspapers, TV and Radio were tightly controlled. The Books and Music would leak in, and with video tape machines the movies would leak into the country and show a different world view. The video tape machines may have inspired the Ukrainians to expel the Russian puppets as part of the Orange Revolution in 2004 and the Maidan Revolution / Ukrainian Revolution of 2014.

So why is Ukraine fighting now after generations of Russian subjugation?

First, the Ukrainians did not think that Russia would invade, and if they did invade it would not be brutal, massive, and long lasting. The brutal invasion is seen as a massive betrayal. Second is the Internet. The Internet is something that the new generation embraced and the world view that is offered via the Internet is something that the new generation wants for themselves and their children. They want to live in that world that they also equate with the European Union or the west. They have rejected Russia and their old ways. The Internet succeeded at inspiring an entire new generation where Newspapers, TV, Radio, and the video tape machines could not.

Russia lost this war before it even started. The reality is the Russian leaders failed miserably and there is no recovery at this point in time. They are old and do not understand that the world has shifted. Even if they remove the current Ukrainian leaders, the Ukrainians will never surrender because too much has happened to them as a direct result of Russia. The Ukrainian world view is modern while the Russian world view fell into the trash heap of history long ago.

This is a multigenerational problem for the Russian people to solve. The sooner they solve it the better their children may live. They need a new world view of what is Russia and fast. It is not a dead empire. It is not the dead Soviet Union. It must be a new Russia that peacefully exists with the rest of the peoples of the world. Eventually all the Russian leaders that caused this horrible war will be dead, but the Russian people will still exist. The question is will they live as a free and happy people or as a sick isolated dying culture with no future lost in the trash heap of history.

Take a look at the structure of each country and examine the maps. The pictures and words offer enormous insight into this war.

.

Lands Listed In Russian Constitution

With each invasion of countries the Russian constitution has been amended to add the new territories.

1993

Chapter 3. Russian Federation

Article 65

1 The Russian Federation shall consist of the subjects of the Federation:

Republics

Territories

Regions / Oblasts

Areas

Federal Cities

  1. Republic of Adygeya (Adygeya),
  2. Republic of Altai,
  3. Republic of Bashkor tostan,
  4. Republic of Buryatia,
  5. Republic of Dagestan,
  6. Ingush Republic, K
  7. abardin-Balkar Republic,
  8. Republic of Kalmykia-Khalmg Tangch,
  9. Karachayevo-Cherkess Republic,
  10. Republic ofKarelia,
  11. Republic of Komi,
  12. Republic of Mari El,
  13. Republic of Mordovia,
  14. Republic of Sakha (Yakutia),
  15. Republic of North Ossetia,
  16. Republic of Tatarstan (Tatarstan),
  17. Republic of Tuva,
  18. Udmurt Republic,
  19. Republic of Khakasia,
  20. Chechen Republic,
  21. Chuvash Republic-Chavash Republics;

  1. Altai Territory,
  2. Krasnodar Territory,
  3. Krasnoyarsk Territory,
  4. Maritime Territory,
  5. Stavropol Territory,
  6. Khabarovsk Territory;

count = 6

  1. Amur Region,
  2. Arkhangelsk Region,
  3. Astrakhan Region,
  4. Belgorod Region,
  5. Bryansk Region,
  6. Vladimir Region,
  7. Volgograd Region,
  8. Vologda Region,
  9. Voronezh Region,
  10. Ivanovo Region,
  11. Irkutsk Region,
  12. Kaliningrad Region,
  13. Ka luga Region,
  14. Kamchatka Region,
  15. Kemerovo Region,
  16. Kirov Region,
  17. Kostroma Region,
  18. Kurgan Region,
  19. Kursk Region,
  20. Leningrad Region,
  21. Lipetsk Region, M
  22. agadan Region,
  23. Moscow Region,
  24. Murmansk Region,
  25. Nizhny Novgorod Region,
  26. Novgorod Region,
  27. Novosibirsk Region,
  28. Omsk Region,
  29. Orenburg Region,
  30. Oryol Region,
  31. Penza Region,
  32. Perm Region,
  33. Pskov Region ,
  34. Rostov Region,
  35. Ryazan Region,
  36. Samara Region,
  37. Saratov Region,
  38. Sakhalin Region,
  39. Sverdlovsk Region,
  40. Smolensk Region,
  41. Tambov Region,
  42. Tver Region,
  43. Tomsk Region,
  44. Tula Relation,
  45. Tyu men Region,
  46. Ulyanovsk Region,
  47. Chelyabinsk Region,
  48. Chita Region,
  49. Yaroslavl Region;

count = 49

  1. Jewish Autonomous Region;

count = 1

  1. Aginsky Buryat Autonomous Area,
  2. Komi-Permyak Autonomous Area ,
  3. Koryak Autonomous Area, N
  4. Nenets Autonomous Area,
  5. Taimyr (Dolgan-Nenets) Autonomous Area,
  6. Ust-Ordynsky Buryat Autonomous Area,
  7. Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area,
  8. Chukchi Autonomous Area,
  9. Evenk Autonomous Area,
  10. Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Area.

count = 10

  1. Moscow,
  2. St. Petersburg

- federal cities;

count = 2

2. Accession to the Russian Federation and formation of a new subject of the Russian Federation within it shall be carried out as envisaged by the federal constitutional law.

2008

CHAPTER 3. THE FEDERAL STRUCTURE

Article 65

Size of second chamber, Subsidiary unit government

The Russian Federation shall be composed of the following constituent entities of the Russian Federation:

Republics

Territories

Oblasts

Areas

Federal Cities

  1. Republic of Adygeya (Adygeya),
  2. Republic of Altai,
  3. Republic of Bashkortostan,
  4. Republic of Buryatia,
  5. Republic of Daghestan,
  6. Republic of Ingushetia,
  7. Kabardino-Balkarian Republic,
  8. Republic of Kalmykia,
  9. Karachayevo-Cherkessian Republic,
  10. Republic of Karelia,
  11. Komi Republic,
  12. Republic of Marij El,
  13. Republic of Mordovia,
  14. Republic of Sakha(Yakutia),
  15. Republic of North Osetia -Alania,
  16. Republic of Tatarstan (Tatarstan),
  17. Republic of Tuva,
  18. Udmurtian Republic,
  19. Republic of Khakasia,
  20. Chechen Republic,
  21. Chuvashi Republic - Chuvashia;
  1. Altai kray,
  2. Krasnodar kray,
  3. Krasnoyarsk kray,
  4. Perm kray,
  5. Primorie kray, S
  6. tavropol kray,
  7. Khabarovsk kray;

count = 7

  1. Amur oblast,
  2. Arkhangelsk oblast,
  3. Astrakhan oblast,
  4. Belgorod oblast,
  5. Bryansk oblast,
  6. Vladimir oblast,
  7. Volgograd oblast,
  8. Vologda oblast,
  9. Voronezh oblast,
  10. Ivanovo oblast,
  11. Irkutsk oblast,
  12. Kaliningrad oblast,
  13. Kaluga oblast,
  14. Kamchatka oblast,
  15. Kemerovo oblast,
  16. Kirov oblast,
  17. Kostroma oblast,
  18. Kurgan oblast,
  19. Kursk oblast,
  20. Leningrad oblast,
  21. Lipetskoblast,
  22. Magadan oblast,
  23. Moscow oblast,
  24. Murmansk oblast,
  25. Nizhni Novgorod oblast,
  26. Novgorod oblast,
  27. Novosibirsk oblast,
  28. Omsk oblast,
  29. Orenburg oblast,
  30. Oryol oblast,
  31. Penzaoblast,
  32. Pskov oblast,
  33. Rostov oblast,
  34. Ryazan oblast,
  35. Samara oblast,
  36. Saratov oblast,
  37. Sakhalin oblast,
  38. Sverdlovsk oblast,
  39. Smolensk oblast,
  40. Tambov oblast,
  41. Tver oblast,
  42. Tomskoblast,
  43. Tula oblast,
  44. Tyumen oblast,
  45. Ulyanovsk oblast,
  46. Chelyabinsk oblast,
  47. Chita oblast,
  48. Yaroslavl oblast;

count = 48

  1. the Jewish autonomous oblast;

count = 1

  1. Aginsk Buryat autonomous okrug,
  2. Koryak autonomous okrug,
  3. Nenets autonomousokrug,
  4. Taimyr (Dolgano-Nenets) autonomous okrug,
  5. Ust-Ordyn Buryat autonomousokrug,
  6. Khanty-Mansijsk autonomous okrug -Yugra,
  7. Chukotka autonomous okrug,
  8. Evenk autonomous okrug,
  9. Yamalo-Nenets autonomous okrug.

count = 10.

  1. Moscow,
  2. St. Petersburg

- cities of federal significance;

count = 2

Accession of territory, Colonies

Admission into the Russian Federation and creation of a new constituent entity shall take place in accordance with the procedure established by federal constitutional law.

2014

CHAPTER 3. THE FEDERAL STRUCTURE

Article 65

Municipal government, Subsidiary unit government, Size of second chamber

The Russian Federation shall be composed of the following constituent entities of the Russian Federation:

Republics

Territories

Oblasts

Areas

Federal Cities

  1. Republic of Adygeya (Adygeya),
  2. Republic of Altai,
  3. Republic of Bashkortostan,
  4. Republic of Buryatia,
  5. Republic of Crimea,
  6. Republic of Daghestan,
  7. Republic of Ingushetia,
  8. Kabardino-Balkarian Republic,
  9. Republic of Kalmykia,
  10. Karachayevo-Cherkessian Republic,
  11. Republic of Karelia,
  12. Komi Republic,
  13. Republic of Marij El,
  14. Republic of Mordovia,
  15. Republic of Sakha(Yakutia),
  16. Republic of North Osetia - Alania,
  17. Republic of Tatarstan (Tatarstan),
  18. Republic of Tuva,
  19. Udmurtian Republic,
  20. Republic of Khakasia,
  21. Chechen Republic,
  22. Chuvashi Republic - Chuvashia;
  1. Altai kray,
  2. Krasnodar kray,
  3. Krasnoyarsk kray,
  4. Perm kray,
  5. Primorie kray,
  6. Stavropol kray,
  7. Khabarovsk kray;

count = 7

  1. Amur oblast, Arkhangelsk oblast,
  2. Astrakhan oblast, Belgorod oblast,
  3. Bryansk oblast, Vladimir oblast,
  4. Volgograd oblast, Vologda oblast,
  5. Voronezh oblast, Ivanovo oblast,
  6. Irkutsk oblast, Kaliningrad oblast,
  7. Kaluga oblast, Kamchatka oblast,
  8. Kemerovo oblast, Kirov oblast,
  9. Kostroma oblast, Kurgan oblast,
  10. Kursk oblast, Leningrad oblast,
  11. Lipets oblast, Magadan oblast,
  12. Moscow oblast, Murmansk oblast,
  13. Nizhni Novgorod oblast,
  14. Novgorod oblast,
  15. Novosibirsk oblast,
  16. Omsk oblast,
  17. Orenburg oblast,
  18. Oryol oblast,
  19. Penza oblast,
  20. Pskov oblast,
  21. Rostov oblast,
  22. Ryazan oblast,
  23. Samara oblast,
  24. Saratov oblast,
  25. Sakhalin oblast,
  26. Sverdlovsk oblast,
  27. Smolensk oblast,
  28. Tambov oblast,
  29. Tver oblast,
  30. Tomsk oblast,
  31. Tula oblast,
  32. Tyumen oblast,
  33. Ulyanovsk oblast,
  34. Chelyabinsk oblast,
  35. Chita oblast,
  36. Yaroslavl oblast;

count = 48

  1. the Jewish autonomous oblast;

count = 1

  1. Nenets autonomous okrug,
  2. Khanty-Mansijsk autonomous okrug - Yugra,
  3. Chukotka autonomous okrug,
  4. Yamalo-Nenets autonomous okrug.

count = 4

  1. Moscow,
  2. St. Petersburg,
  3. Sevastopol

- cities of federal significance;

count = 3

Accession of territory, Colonies

Admission into the Russian Federation and creation of a new constituent entity shall take place in accordance with the procedure established by federal constitutional law.

The following table shows the Republic additions.

1993

2008 2014

Republic of Adygeya (Adygeya),

Republic of Adygeya (Adygeya), Republic of Adygeya (Adygeya),
Republic of Altai, Republic of Altai, Republic of Altai,
Republic of Bashkortostan, Republic of Bashkortostan, Republic of Bashkortostan,
Republic of Buryatia, Republic of Buryatia, Republic of Buryatia,
- - Republic of Crimea,
Republic of Daghestan, Republic of Daghestan, Republic of Daghestan,
Republic of Ingushetia, Republic of Ingushetia, Republic of Ingushetia,
Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, Kabardino-Balkarian Republic,
Republic of Kalmykia, Republic of Kalmykia, Republic of Kalmykia,
Karachayevo-Cherkessian Republic, Karachayevo-Cherkessian Republic, Karachayevo-Cherkessian Republic,
Republic of Karelia, Republic of Karelia, Republic of Karelia,
Komi Republic, Komi Republic, Komi Republic,
Republic of Marij El, Republic of Marij El, Republic of Marij El,
Republic of Mordovia, Republic of Mordovia, Republic of Mordovia,
Republic of Sakha(Yakutia), Republic of Sakha(Yakutia), Republic of Sakha(Yakutia),
Republic of North Osetia - Alania, Republic of North Osetia - Alania, Republic of North Osetia - Alania,
Republic of Tatarstan (Tatarstan), Republic of Tatarstan (Tatarstan), Republic of Tatarstan (Tatarstan),
Republic of Tuva, Republic of Tuva, Republic of Tuva,
Udmurtian Republic, Udmurtian Republic, Udmurtian Republic,
Republic of Khakasia, Republic of Khakasia, Republic of Khakasia,
Chechen Republic, Chechen Republic, Chechen Republic,
Chuvashi Republic - Chuvashia; Chuvashi Republic - Chuvashia; Chuvashi Republic - Chuvashia;

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.

Maps of Russian Lands

Russian Republics

The republics of Russia are territories in the Russian Federation that each constitute a federal subject, the highest-level administrative division of Russian territory. They are one of several types of federal subjects in Russia. The republics were originally created as nation states for ethnic minorities. The indigenous ethnic group that gives its name to the republic is referred to as the titular nationality. However, due to centuries of Russian migration, each nationality is not necessarily a majority of a republic's population.

Russia - Republics [1]

  1. Adygea
  2. Altai
  3. Bashkortostan
  4. Buryatia
  5. Dagestan
  6. Ingushetia
  7. Kabardino-Balkaria
  8. Kalmykia
  9. Karachay-Cherkessia
  10. Karelia
  11. Komi
  12. Mari El
  13. Mordovia
  14. Sakha
  15. North Ossetia–Alania
  16. Tatarstan
  17. Tuva
  18. Udmurtia
  19. Khakassia
  20. Chechnya
  21. Chuvashia

Formed in the early 20th century by Vladimir Lenin and the Bolsheviks after the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917, republics were meant to be nominally independent regions of Soviet Russia with the right to self-determination. Lenin's conciliatory stance towards Russia's minorities made them allies in the Russian Civil War and with the creation of the Soviet Union in 1922 the regions became Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republics (ASSR), a third order of autonomy, subordinate to a union republic. While officially autonomous, ASSRs were in practice hypercentralized and largely under the control of the Soviet Union and its leadership. Throughout their history the ASSRs experienced varying periods of Russification and cultural revival depending on who led the country. The 1980s saw an increase in the demand of autonomy as the Soviet Union began large scale reforms of its centralized system. In 1990 the ASSRs declared their sovereignty and renounced their status as autonomous republics. The Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 and Russia became independent. The current day republics were established with the signing of the Federation Treaty in 1992, which gave them substantial rights and autonomy.

Republics differ from other subjects in that they have more powers. Republics have their own constitutions, official languages, and national anthems. Due to this, Russia is an asymmetrical federation as the other subjects do not have these rights. Powers vary between republics and largely depend on their economic power. Through the signing of bilateral treaties with the federal government, republics had extensive authority over their economies, internal policies, and even foreign relations in the 1990s. However, at the turn of the century, Vladimir Putin's centralization reforms steadily eradicated all autonomy the republics had with the exception of Chechnya. The bilateral agreements were abolished and in practice all power rests with the federal government. With the termination of the final bilateral treaty in 2017, some commentators expressed that Russia ceased to be a federation.

In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea from Ukraine and established the Republic of Crimea, however, it remains internationally recognized as Ukraine's Autonomous Republic of Crimea. During the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia declared the annexation of four partially-occupied Ukrainian regions, claiming the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as republics. These also remain internationally recognized as part of Ukraine.

Krai or Territory

A Krai is a federal subject of the Russian Federation. Russia is divided into 89 federal subjects, of which nine are Krais or Territories. Oblasts, another type of federal subject, are legally identical to Krais and the difference between a political entity with the name Krai or Oblast is traditional, similar to the commonwealths in the United States; both are constituent entities equivalent in legal status in Russia with representation in the Federation Council.

During the Soviet era, the autonomous Oblasts could be subordinated to Republics or Krais, but not to Oblasts. Outside of political terminology, both words have very similar general meaning (region or area in English) and can often be used interchangeably. When a distinction is desirable, Krai is sometimes translated into English as Territory, while Oblast can be translated to Province or Region, but both of these translations are also reasonable interpretations of Krai. The term Krai or Kray is derived from the Russian word for an edge, and can be translated into English as frontier or territory.

Russia - Krais or Territories [3]

  1. Altai Krai
  2. Kamchatka Krai
  3. Khabarovsk Krai
  4. Krasnodar Krai
  5. Krasnoyarsk Krai
  6. Perm Krai
  7. Primorsky Krai
  8. Stavropol Krai
  9. Zabaykalsky Krai

Each Krai features a state government holding authority over a defined geographic territory, with a state legislature, the Legislative Assembly, that is democratically elected. The Governor is the highest executive position of the state government in a Krai, and is elected by people. Krais can be divided into raions (districts), cities/towns of Krai significance, and okrugs. Krais previously featured autonomous okrugs until the formation of Zabaykalsky Krai on March 1, 2008, when the last remaining autonomous okrug of a Krai was abolished.

The largest Krai by geographic size is Krasnoyarsk Krai at 2,339,700 square kilometers (903,400 sq mi) and the smallest is Stavropol Krai at 66,500 square kilometers (25,700 sq mi). The most populous Krai is Krasnodar Krai at 5,404,300 (2010 Census) and the least populous is Kamchatka Krai at 322,079 (2010).

Historically, Krais were massive first-level administrative divisions in the Russian Empire, divided into large guberniyas (governorates). Following the numerous administration reforms during the Soviet era, the guberniyas were abolished and Krais were reshaped into smaller, more numerous divisions. Eventually, Krais and Oblasts became almost totally equal as the top-level administrative division of the Soviet Socialist Republics (SSRs), the constituent political entities of the Soviet Union, with the only difference being autonomous Oblasts could be subordinated to Krais. The Krais were unique to the Russian SFSR, and held very little autonomy or power, but when the Soviet Union dissolved into sovereign states along the lines of the SSRs, they became first-level administrative divisions of the Russian Federation and received much greater devolved power.

Oblasts

Oblasts are political entities in a federal union with representation in the Federation Council, and serve as a first-level administrative division. Each Oblast features a state government holding authority over a defined geographic territory, with a state legislature, the Oblast Duma, that is democratically elected. The governor is the highest executive position of the state government in an Oblast, and is elected by people. Oblasts are divided into raions (districts), cities of Oblast significance (district-equivalent independent cities), and autonomous okrugs, which are legally federal subjects equal to an Oblast but are administratively subservient to one. Two Oblasts have autonomous okrugs: Arkhangelsk Oblast (Nenets Autonomous Okrug) and Tyumen Oblast (Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug).

Russia - Oblasts [2]

  1. Amur Oblast
  2. Arkhangelsk Oblast
  3. Astrakhan Oblast
  4. Belgorod Oblast
  5. Bryansk Oblast
  6. Chelyabinsk Oblast
  7. Irkutsk Oblast
  8. Ivanovo Oblast
  9. Kaliningrad Oblast
  10. Kaluga Oblast
  11. Kemerovo Oblast
  12. Kirov Oblast
  1. Kostroma Oblast
  2. Kurgan Oblast
  3. Kursk Oblast
  4. Leningrad Oblast
  5. Lipetsk Oblast
  6. Magadan Oblast
  7. Moscow Oblast
  8. Murmansk Oblast
  9. Nizhny Novgorod Oblast
  10. Novgorod Oblast
  11. Novosibirsk Oblast
  12. Omsk Oblast
  1. Orenburg Oblast
  2. Oryol Oblast
  3. Penza Oblast
  4. Pskov Oblast
  5. Rostov Oblast
  6. Ryazan Oblast
  7. Sakhalin Oblast
  8. Samara Oblast
  9. Saratov Oblast
  10. Smolensk Oblast
  11. Sverdlovsk Oblast
  12. Tambov Oblast
  1. Tomsk Oblast
  2. Tver Oblast
  3. Tula Oblast
  4. Tyumen Oblast
  5. Ulyanovsk Oblast
  6. Vladimir Oblast
  7. Volgograd Oblast
  8. Vologda Oblast
  9. Voronezh Oblast
  10. Yaroslavl Oblast

The term oblast can be translated into English as province or region, and there are currently 46 oblasts, the most common type of the 85 federal subjects in Russia. The majority of oblasts are named after their administrative center, the official term for a capital city in an oblast, which is generally the largest city. Exceptions to this include Leningrad Oblast and Moscow Oblast, which have no official capital, and Sakhalin Oblast, which is named after a geographic location. Leningrad Oblast and Sverdlovsk Oblast retain the previous names of Saint Petersburg and Yekaterinburg, respectively.

Oblasts are typically areas that are predominantly populated by ethnic Russians and native Russian language speakers, and are mostly located in European Russia. The largest oblast by geographic size is Tyumen Oblast at 1,435,200 square-km (excluding autonomous okrugs Irkutsk Oblast is the largest at 767,900 square-km) and the smallest is Kaliningrad Oblast at 15,100 square-km. The most populous oblast is Moscow Oblast at 7,095,120 and the least populous is Magadan Oblast at 156,996.

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.

Territorial Structure of Ukraine

The Ukrainian Constitution defines Ukrainian territory as follows.

Chapter IX

Territorial Structure of Ukraine

Article 132

The territorial structure of Ukraine is based on the principles of unity and indivisibility of the state territory, the combination of centralisation and decentralisation in the exercise of state power, and the balanced socio-economic development of regions that takes into account their historical, economic, ecological, geographical and demographic characteristics, and ethnic and cultural traditions.

Article 133

The system of the administrative and territorial structure of Ukraine is composed of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, oblasts, districts, cities, city districts, settlements and villages.

Ukraine is composed of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Vinnytsia Oblast, Volyn Oblast, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, Donetsk Oblast, Zhytomyr Oblast, Zakarpattia Oblast, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, Kyiv Oblast, Kirovohrad Oblast, Luhansk Ob last, Lviv Oblast, Mykolaiv Oblast, Odesa Oblast, Poltava Oblast, Rivne Oblast, Sumy Oblast, Ternopil Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, Kherson Oblast, Khmelnytskyi Oblast, Cherkasy Oblast, Chernivtsi Oblast and Chernihiv Oblast, and the Cities of Kyiv and Sevastop ol.

The Cities of Kyiv and Sevastopol have special status that is determined by the laws of Ukraine.

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.

Maps Of Ukrainian Lands

Ukraine's territory is divided into Oblasts, one autonomous republic of Crimea, and two cities with special status, Kyiv and Sevastopol.

Ukraine with Russian Occupation [4]

  1. Cherkasy Oblast
  2. Chernihiv Oblast
  3. Chernivtsi Oblast
  4. Dnipropetrovsk Oblast
  5. Donetsk Oblast
  6. Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast
  7. Kharkiv Oblast
  8. Kherson Oblast
  9. Khmelnytskyi Oblast
  10. Kyiv Oblast
  11. Kirovohrad Oblast
  12. Luhansk Oblast
  13. Lviv Oblast
  14. Mykolaiv Oblast
  15. Odesa Oblast
  16. Poltava Oblast
  17. Rivne Oblast
  18. Sumy Oblast
  19. Ternopil Oblast
  20. Vinnytsia Oblast
  21. Volyn Oblast
  22. Zakarpattia Oblast
  23. Zaporizhzhia Oblast
  24. Zhytomyr Oblast

Russia invaded Ukrainian territory as part of a massive Russian war on a sovereign nation state and annexed Crimea and southeastern Ukraine, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, portions of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts. Russia claims them as the Republic of Crimea and the federal city of Sevastopol as well as the Donetsk People's Republic, Kherson Oblast, the Luhansk People's Republic and Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Internationally, states have not recognised the Russian claims.

Ukrainian Republics

Ukraine's territory includes one autonomous republic, Crimea.

Oblast

Ukraine has 24 Oblasts and is often called a region or province and is the main type of first-level administrative division of the country. Ukraine is a unitary state, thus the oblasts do not have much legal scope of competence other than that which is established in the Ukrainian Constitution and by law. Articles 140–146 of Chapter XI of the constitution deal directly with local authorities and their competency.

Oblasts are subdivided into raions (districts), each oblast having from 3 to 10 raions following the July 2020 reform. Most of Ukraine's oblasts are named after their respective administrative centers, which are also the largest and most developed cities in the region. Oblast populations range from 904,000 in Chernivtsi Oblast to 4.4 million in the eastern oblast of Donetsk. Each oblast is generally subdivided into about 20 raions (mean average, can range anywhere from 11 in Chernivtsi to 27 in Kharkiv and Vinnytsia Oblasts).

Regions

Like many other countries, Ukraine has modern regional designations. The semi-official regions are typically refered to as Central Ukraine, Eastern Ukraine, Southern Ukraine, and Western Ukraine. There is no clear definition of the boundaries of the regions, but rather a general reference.

The regions generally include:

  1. Central Ukraine: denotes what is not included in Western or South-Eastern definitions.
  2. Eastern Ukraine: includes the Don basin, Sloboda Ukraine, continental Taurida regions etc.
  3. Southern Ukraine: includes Taurida, the Kryvyi Rih basin, and the regions of Mykolayiv and Odessa oblasts. Alternatively it may include the Don basin, in particular the adjacent land to the Azov Sea.
  4. Western Ukraine: includes either the historic region of Galicia, or may also include Volhynia, Podolia, Transcarpathia, Bukovina.

Ukraine Regions [5]
Copyright: This map is released by Cassbeth in full for any purpose.

Ukraine Regions, Oblasts, and Republic of Crimea [4] [5]
Copyright: This map is released by Cassbeth in full for any purpose.

Other regional references that are rarely used are South-Western Ukraine, can denote either Transcarpathia, or Budjak. Sometimes the term South-Eastern Ukraine is used to define both regions of the Southern and Eastern Ukraine. Due to the shape of the country, in narrow terms, Northern Ukraine is often used to denote either the bulge of Chernihiv / Sumy oblasts or, in broader terms, the whole of Polesia. North-Western Ukraine almost exclusively refers to the historic region of Volhynia. This makes the term North-Eastern Ukraine rarest of them all - it is either used as synonym for the narrow definition of Northern Ukraine, or as synonym for Sloboda Ukraine (particularly Sumy Oblast). This is similar to the United States where the regions and the suggested boundaries vary. For example New England, Mid-Atlantic, South, Midwest, Southwest, Pacific West Coast and sometimes the Rocky Mountains also may be Northeast, Southwest, West, Southeast, and Midwest or Alaska, Midwest, Northwest, North Central, Northeast, Pacific Islands, Southwest, South Central, and Southeast. [5]

References

[1] Republics of Russia, wikipedia, website access November 19, 2022. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republics_of_Russia

[2] Oblasts of Russia, wikipedia, website access November 19, 2022. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oblasts_of_Russia

[3] Krais of Russia, wikipedia, website access November 19, 2022.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Krais_of_Russia

[4] Oblasts of Ukraine, wikipedia, website access November 19, 2022. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oblasts_of_Ukraine

[5] Historical regions in present-day Ukraine, wikipedia, website access November 19, 2022. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_regions_in_present-day_Ukraine

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.

Key Speeches

.

President Biden Announcing to the World Russia will Invade Ukraine

Transcript of speech automatically generated. [6]

*** START ***

February 18, 2022

We have reason to believe the Russian forces are planning to and intend to attack Ukraine in the coming week in the coming days. We believe that they will target Ukraine's capital Kyiv (Kiev) a city of 2.8 million innocent people.

We're calling out Russia's plans loudly repeatedly not because we want a conflict but because we're doing everything in our power to remove any reason that Russia may give to justify invading Ukraine and prevent them from moving.

Make no mistake if Russia pursues its plans, it will be responsible for a catastrophic and needless war of choice.

The United States and our allies are prepared to defend every inch of NATO territory from any threat to our collective security as well. We also will not send troops in to fight in Ukraine but we will continue to support the Ukrainian people. This past year the United States provided a record amount of security assistance to Ukraine to bolster its defensive,  $650 million dollars from Javelin missiles to ammunition. We also previously provided $500 million dollars in Ukraine and humanitarian aid and economic support for Ukraine and earlier this week we also announced an additional sovereign loan guarantee of up to $1 billion dollars to strengthen Ukraine's economic resilience but the bottom line is this, the United States and our allies and partners will support the Ukrainian people.

We will hold Russia accountable for its actions. The west is united and resolved. We're ready to impose severe sanctions on Russia if it further invades Ukraine but I say again Russia can still choose diplomacy.

It is not too late to de-escalate and return to the negotiating table. Last night Russia agreed that secretary of state Blinken and foreign minister Lavrov should meet on on February 24th in Europe, but if Russia takes military action before that date it will be clear that they have slammed the door shut on diplomacy. They will have chosen war and they will pay a steep price for doing so not only from the sanctions that we and our allies will impose on Russia but the moral outraged the rest of the world will visit upon them.

You know of the many issues that divide our nation and our world but standing up to Russian aggression is not one of them. The American people are united, Europe is united, the Transatlantic community's  are united, our political parties in this country are united, the entire free world is united. Russia has a choice between war and all the suffering it will bring or diplomacy that will make a future safer for everyone.

*** END ***

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President Biden's speech in Warsaw on Russia's invasion of Ukraine

Full Transcript [President Biden's speech in Warsaw on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, ABC News, March 26, 2022. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/full-transcript-president-bidens-speech-warsaw-russias-invasion/story?id=83690301]

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March 26, 2022

"Be not afraid." These were the first words that the first public address of the first Polish pope after his election in October of 1978, they were the words who would come to define Pope John Paul II. Words that would change the world.

John Paul brought the message here to Warsaw in his first trip back home as pope in June of 1979. It was a message about the power, the power of faith, the power of resilience, the power of the people. In the face of a cruel and brutal system of government, it was a message that helped end the Soviet repression in the central land in Eastern Europe 30 years ago.

It was a message that we'll overcome the cruelty and brutality of this unjust war. When Pope John Paul brought that message in 1979, the Soviet Union ruled with an iron fist behind an Iron Curtain. Then a year later, the solidarity movement took hold in Poland. While I know he couldn't be here tonight, we're all grateful in America and around the world for Lech Walesa. [Applause] It reminds me of that phrase from the philosopher Kierkegaard, "Faith sees best in the dark." And they were dark moments.

Ten years later, the Soviet Union collapsed and Poland and Central and Eastern Europe would soon be free. Nothing about that battle for freedom was simple or easy. It was a long, painful slog. Fought over not days and months but years and decades. But we emerged anew in the great battle for freedom. A battle between democracy and autocracy. Between liberty and repression. Between a rules-based order and one governed by brute force. In this battle, we need to be clear-eyed. This battle will not be won in days or months either. We need to steel ourselves of a long fight ahead.

Mr. President, Mr. Prime Minister, Mr. Mayor, members of the parliament, distinguished guests, and the people of Poland, and I suspect some people of Ukraine that are here. We are [applause], we are gathered here at the royal castle in this city that holds the sacred place in the history of not only of Europe but human kind's unending search for freedom.

For generations, Warsaw has stood where liberty has been challenged and liberty has prevailed. In fact, it was here in Warsaw when a young refugee who fled her home country from Czechoslovakia was under Soviet domination, came back to speak and stand in solidarity with dissidence. Her name was Madeleine Korbel Albright. She became one of the most ardent supporters of democracy in the world. She was a friend with whom I served. America's first woman Secretary of State.

She passed away three days ago. She fought her whole life for central democratic principles. And now in the perennial struggle for democracy and freedom, Ukraine and its people are in the front lines.

Fighting to save their nation and their brave resistance is part of a larger fight for essential democratic principles that unite all free people. The rule of law, fair and free elections, the freedom to speak, to write and to assemble. The freedom to worship as one chooses. The freedom of the press. These principles are essential in a free society. [Applause]

But they have always, they have always been under siege. They have always been embattled. Every generation has had to defeat democracy's moral foes. That's the way of the world, for the world is imperfect, as we know. Where the appetites and ambitions of a few forever seek to dominate the lives and liberty of many.

My message to the people of Ukraine is a message I delivered today to Ukraine's foreign minister and defense minister, who I believe are here tonight. We stand with you. Period! [Applause]

Today's fighting in Kyiv and Mariupol and Kharkiv are the latest battle in a long struggle. Hungary, 1956. Poland, 1956, and then again, 1981. Czechoslovakia,1968. Soviet tanks crushed democratic uprisings, but the resistance continued until finally in 1989, the Berlin Wall and all the walls of Soviet domination, they fell. They fell! And the people prevailed.

But the battle for democracy could not conclude, and did not conclude with the end of the Cold War. Over the last 30 years, the forces of autocracy have revived all across the globe. Its hallmarks are familiar ones -- contempt for the rule of law, contempt for democratic freedom, contempt for the truth itself.

Today, Russia has strangled democracy and sought to do so elsewhere, not only in his homeland. Under false claims of ethnic solidarity, there's invalidated neighboring nations. Putin has the gall to say he's 'denazifying' Ukraine. It's a lie. It's just cynical, he knows that and it's also obscene.

President Zelenskyy was democratically elected. He's Jewish. His father's family was wiped out in the Nazi Holocaust. And Putin has the audacity, like all autocrats before him, to believe that might will make right.

In my own country, a former president named Abraham Lincoln voiced the opposing spirit to save our union in the midst of the Civil War. He said let us have faith that right makes might. Right makes might. Today, let us have that faith again. [Applause] Let us resolve to put the strength of democracies into action to thwart the designs of autocracy.

Let us remember that the test of this moment is the test of all time. A criminal wants to portray NATO enlargement as an imperial project aimed at destabilizing Russia. Nothing is further from the truth. NATO is a defensive alliance. It has never sought the demise of Russia. In the lead up to the current crisis, the United States and NATO worked for months to engage Russia to avert war. I met with him in person, talked to him many times on the phone.

Time and again, we offered real diplomacy and concrete proposals to strengthen European security, enhance transparency, build confidence on all sides. But Putin and Russia met each of the proposals with disinterest in any negotiation, with lies and ultimatums.

Russia was bent on violence from the start. I know not all of you believed me and us when we kept saying, they are going to cross the border, they are going to attack. Repeatedly he asserted we had no interest in war, guaranteed he would not move. Repeatedly saying he would not invade Ukraine. Repeatedly saying Russian troops along the border were there for training. All 180,000 of them.

There's simply no justification or provocation for Russia's choice of war. It's an example, one of the oldest human impulses, using brute force and disinformation to satisfy a craving for absolute power and control. It's nothing less than a direct challenge to the rule-based international order established since the end of World War II. And it threatens to return to decades of war that ravaged Europe before the international rule-based order was put in place.

We cannot go back to that. We cannot. The gravity of the threat is why the response of the West has been so swift and so powerful and so unified, unprecedented and overwhelming. Swift and punishing costs are the only thing that are going to get Russia to change its course.

Within days of his invasion, the West has moved jointly with sanctions to damage Russia's economy. Russia's Central Bank is now blocked from global financial systems, denying Kremlin's access to the war fund that's stashed around the globe. We have aimed at the heart of Russia's economy by stopping the imports of Russian energy to the United States.

To date, the United States has sanctioned 140 Russian oligarchs and their family members, seizing their ill-begotten gains, their yachts, their luxury apartments, their mansions. We've sanctioned more than 400 Russian government officials, including key architects of this war. These officials and oligarchs have reaped enormous benefit from the corruption connected to the Kremlin. And now they have to share in the pain.

The private sector has acted as well. Over 400 private multinational companies have pulled out of doing business in Russia. Left Russia completely. From oil companies to McDonald's. As a result of these unprecedented sanctions, the ruble almost is immediately reduced to rubble. The Russian economy -- that's true, by the way, it takes about 200 rubles to equal $1.

The economy is on track to be cut in half in the coming years. It was ranked, Russia's economy was ranked the 11th biggest economy in the world before this invasion. It will soon not even rank among the top 20 in the world.

Taken together [applause] these economic sanctions, a new kind of economic statecraft with the power to inflict damage that rivals military might. These international sanctions are sapping Russian strength, its ability to replenish its military, and its ability to project power. And it's Putin, it is Vladimir Putin who is to blame. Period.

At the same time, alongside these economic sanctions, the Western world has come together to provide for the people of Ukraine with incredible levels of military, economic, humanitarian assistance.

In the years before the invasion, we, America, had sent over $650 million, before they crossed the border, in weapons to Ukraine, including anti-air and anti-armor equipment. Since the invasion, America has committed another $1.35 billion in weapons and ammunition. And thanks to the courage and bravery of the Ukrainian people, the equipment we've sent and our colleagues have sent have been used to devastating effect to defend Ukrainian land and air space.

Our allies and partners have stepped up as well. But as I've made clear, American forces are in Europe -- not in Europe to engage in conflict with Russian forces. American forces are here to defend NATO allies. Yesterday I met with the troops that are serving alongside our Polish allies to bolster NATO's front line defenses. The reason we want to make clear is their movement on Ukraine -- don't even think about moving on one single inch of NATO territory. We have sacred obligation. We have a sacred obligation under Article 5 to defend each and every inch of NATO territory with the full force of our collective power.

And earlier today I visited your national stadium, where thousands of Ukrainian refugees are now trying to answer the toughest questions a human can ask. My God, what is going to happen to me? What is going to happen to my family? I saw tears in many of the mothers' eyes as I embraced them. Their young children, their young children, not sure whether to smile or cry.

One little girl said, Mr. President -- she spoke a little English -- is my brother and my daddy, are they going to be okay? Will I see them again? Without their husbands, their fathers. In many cases, their brothers and sisters have stayed back to fight for their country.

I didn't have to speak the language or understand the language to feel the emotion in their eyes, the way they gripped my hand, little kids hung on to my leg, praying with a desperate hope that all this is temporary. Apprehension that they may be perhaps forever away from their homes. Almost a debilitating sadness that this is happening all over again.

But I was also struck by the generosity of the people of Warsaw -- for that matter, all the Polish people -- for the depths of their compassion, their willingness to reach out [applause], for opening their hearts. I was saying to the mayor, they were opening their hearts and their homes simply to help.

I also want to thank my friend, the great American chef Jose Andres, and his team for help feeding those who are yearning to be free. But helping these refugees is not something Poland or any other nation should carry alone. All the world's democracies have a responsibility to help. All of them. And the people of Ukraine can count on the United States to meet its responsibility. I have announced two days ago, we will welcome 100,000 Ukrainian refugees. We already have 8,000 a week coming to the United States of other nationalities. We will provide nearly $300 million of humanitarian assistance, providing tens of thousands of tons of food, water, medicine and other basic supplies.

In Brussels, I announced the United States is prepared to provide more than $1 billion in additional humanitarian aid. The World Food Programme told us that despite significant obstacles, at least some relief is getting to major cities in Ukraine. But not Metripol -- no, excuse me -- not Mariupol because Russian forces are blocking relief supplies.

But we'll not cease our efforts to get humanitarian relief wherever it is needed in Ukraine and for the people who've made it out of Ukraine. Notwithstanding the brutality of Vladimir Putin, let there be no doubt that this war has already been a strategic failure for Russia already. Having lost children myself, I know that's no solace to the people who've lost family but he, Putin, thought Ukrainians would roll over and not fight. Not much of a student of history. Instead Russian forces have met their match with brave and stiff Ukrainian resistance. Rather than breaking Ukrainian resolve, Russia's brutal tactics have strengthened the resolve. Rather than driving NATO apart, the West is now stronger and more united than it's ever been.

Russia wanted less of a NATO presence on its border but now he has a stronger presence, a larger presence with over 100,000 American troops here along with all the other members of NATO. In fact, Russia has managed to cause something I'm sure he never intended. The democracies of the world are revitalized with purpose and unity found in months that we've once taken years to accomplish.

It's not only Russia's actions in Ukraine that are reminding us of democracy's blessing. It's our own country, his own country, the Kremlin, it's jailing protesters. Two hundred thousand people who have allegedly already left. There's a brain drain leaving Russia. Shutting down independent news. State media is all propaganda. Blocking the image of civilian targets, mass graves, starvation tactics of the Russian forces in Ukraine.

Is it any wonder as I said that 200,000 Russians have all left their country in one month. A remarkable brain drain in such a short period of time. Which brings me to my message to the Russian people. I worked with Russian leaders for decades. I sat across the negotiating table going all the way back to Soviet Alexei Kosygin to talk arms control at the height of the Cold War. I've always spoken directly and honestly to you, the Russian people. Let me say this, if you're able to listen. You, the Russian people, are not our enemy. I refuse to believe that you welcome the killing of innocent children and grandparents, or that you accept hospitals, schools, maternity wards and for God sake's being pummeled with Russian missiles and bombs. Or cities being surrounded so that civilians cannot flee. Supplies cut off and attempting to starve Ukrainians into submission.

Millions of families are being driven from their homes, including half of all Ukraine's children. These are not the actions of a great nation. Of all people, you, the Russian people, as well as all people across Europe still have the memory of being in a similar situation in the late '30s and '40s. Situation in World War II still fresh in the minds of many grandparents in the region. Whatever your generation experienced, whether it experienced the siege of Leningrad or heard about it from your parents and grandparents. Train stations overflowing with terrified families fleeing their homes. Nights sheltering in basements and cellars. Mornings sifting through the rubble in your homes. These are not memories of the past. Not anymore. Because it's exactly what the Russian army is doing in Ukraine right now.

March 26, 2022, just days before we're at the 21 -- you were a 21st century nation, with hopes and dreams that people all over the world have for themselves and their family. Now, Vladimir Putin's aggression have cut you, the Russian people, off from the rest of the world, and it's taking Russia back to the 19th century. This is not who you are. This is not the future you deserve for your families and your children. I'm telling you the truth, this war is not worthy of you, the Russian people. Putin can and must end this war. The American people will stand with you, and the brave citizens of Ukraine who want peace.

My message to the rest of Europe, this new battle for freedom has already made a few things crystal clear. First, Europe must end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels. And we, the United States will help. [Applause] That's why just yesterday in Brussels I announced the plan with the president of the European Commission to get Europe through the immediate energy crisis. Over the long-term, as a matter of economic security and national security and for the survivability of the planet, we all need to move as quickly as possible to clean, renewable energy. And we'll work together to help to get that done so that the days of any nation being subject to the whims of a tyrant for its energy needs are over. They must end. They must end.

And second, we have to fight the corruption coming from the Kremlin to give the Russian people a fair chance. And finally, most urgently, we maintain absolute unity, we must, among the world's democracies. It's not enough to speak with rhetorical flourish of ennobling words of democracy, of freedom, of quality, and liberty. All of us, including here in Poland, must do the hard work of democracy each and every day -- my country as well. That's why [applause], that's why I came to Europe again this week with a clear and determined message for NATO, for the G7, for the European Union, for all freedom-loving nations -- we must commit now to be in this fight for the long haul. We must remain unified today and tomorrow and the day after. And for the years and decades to come. It will not be easy. There will be costs. But it is a price we have to pay because the darkness that drives autocracy is ultimately no match for the flame of liberty that lights the souls of free people everywhere.

Time and again history shows that. It's from the darkness moments that the greatest progress follows. And history shows this is the task of our time, the task of this generation. Let's remember the hammer blow that brought down the Berlin Wall, the might that lifted the Iron Curtain were not the words of a single leader, it was the people of Europe, who for decades fought to free themselves. Their sheer bravery opened the border between Austria and Hungary for the Pan-European Picnic. They joined hands for the Baltic Way. They stood for solidarity here in Poland. And together it was an unmistakable and undeniable force of the people that the Soviet Union could not withstand. And we're seeing it once again today for the brave Ukrainian people showing that their power of many is greater than the will of any one dictator.

So in this hour, let the words of Pope John Paul burn as brightly today. Never ever give up hope. Never doubt. Never tire. Never become discouraged. Be not afraid! [Applause]

A dictator bent on rebuilding an empire will never erase a people's love for liberty. Brutality will never grind down their will to be free. Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia, for free people refuse to live in a world of hopelessness and darkness. We will have a different future, a brighter future, rooted in democracy and principle, hope and light. Of decency and dignity and freedom and possibilities. For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power. God bless you all. And may God defend our freedom, and may God protect our troops. [Applause] Thank you for your patience. Thank you. Thank you.

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President Zelensky - Day 2 Of Munich Security Conference

Transcript of speech manually generated. [7]

There is another transcript after this one that was officially released by the Presidents Office in Ukraine.

*** START ***

February 19, 2022

Ukraine wants peace. Europe is longing for peace. The World is saying it doesn't want any war while Russia is claiming she doesn't want to intervene. Someone here is lying. This is not an axiom but by far not only a hypothesis too.

I visited the separation line in the Donbass just a couple of days ago. In legal terms this is [the] line separating Ukraine and [the] temporary occupied territory, but in real terms this is the line separating peace and the war. The line with a kindergarten on the one hand and the shell flying into it.

On the one hand the school and on the other hand the shell flying into the school playground with 30 children nearby.

On the other hand the children who are not heading towards NATO they're heading towards their classrooms.

Some of them might be having their physics classes and with their elementary knowledge of physics even these children will know that alleging that it was Ukraine to have shelled these objects is just silly.

Other children might [as well] be having their math classes. They don't need a calculator to figure out the difference between the total number of shelling the last two days and the number of times Ukraine is mentioned in the Munich security report.

Yet some children might be having their history class and so when they see the shell crater in their playground instead of their school playground they might start asking questions. Has our world completely forgotten the mistakes of the 20th century?

Where does the appeasement policy usually lead to? How did we get from the question what's the point of dying for Donestk to dozens or millions having to die [and] give away their lives for Duncan as well as dozens of other European cities?

These are horrific history lessons.

With this I'm simply trying to make sure we have been reading the same textbook so that we are all on the same page about one main question: how did we get to this point in the 21st century where the war is being raged and people are dying in Europe? How come that time wise it's already longer that World War II? How did we end up in the biggest security crisis since the end of the cold war? To me as a president of the country, which lost part of its territory, thousands of people [in] the country, [that is] surrounded by a hundred fifty thousand army with heavy armament and machinery on our borders.

To me this answer [is] obvious, the security architecture of our world is brittle. It is obsolete. The rules that have been agreed upon by the world dozens of years ago are no longer working. They are neither [not] catching up with the new threats [and] not being effective in overcoming them just like a cough a syrup instead of a good COVID vaccine. This security system is slow and failing us time and time again because of different things egotism, arrogance, and irresponsibility of countries on the global level. As a result some countries are committing crimes while others resort to indifference. The indifference that [has] turned them into accomplices. It is symbolic that I am saying this here. Fifteen years ago it was [the] Russian federation who made the statement here and put the challenge to the global security. How did the world respond? Appeasement. What do we have as a result? The annexation of the Crimean aggression against my country at the very least.

The U.N. which was initially called to safeguard peace's security cannot protect itself when its own charter [is] being violated as one the security council members annexing the territory of another founding member. While the U.N. itself is ignoring the Crimean platform established to de-occupy the Crimea and advocate for the rights of the Crimean Tatars.

It was here three years ago when Angela Merkel said who can pick up the pieces of the worlds puzzle only all of us together she said. To rush to a rash audible excitement in the room which stood out to applaud. Unfortunately the collective ovation failed to transform into collective action so now that the world is talking about the threat of a big war it begs the question is there anything left to pick up the security architecture of Europe and beyond is almost destroyed it's too late now to talk about fixing it. It's high time for a new one. [The] Mankind did so on two occasions having paid and [an] extensively high price. It has [had] the two world wars. We do have a chance to break that trend before it becomes a [permanent] trend and build a new system before we pay [with] millions of casualties [with] based on the experience of two world wars without a third one to come.

In [here in U.N. and in] the U.N. already mentioned there [there] is no such thing as it is not my war in the 21st 6:08 century. That annexation of the Crimea and the war in the Donbass is a blow to the whole world. That this is not about war in the Ukraine. This is about the war in Europe. I mentioned [it in] 2019, 2020, 2021. Will the world be able to hear me in 2022.

This is no longer hypothesis but not yet an axiom. Why not because it requires proof. It requires something more than just tweets and statements in mass media. Action is needed. The world needs this action not Ukraine.

We are going to protect our country with or without support of our partners. Be it hundreds of pieces of contemporary armament or 5,000 helmets, we equally appreciate the support. But, everyone needs to understand that this is not some kind of donation Ukraine should be reminded [ing] of begging for. This is not just a broad gesture that Ukraine should be bowing down. For this is your contribution into the European and International security for which Ukraine has been serving as a shield for eight years now. A reliable shield holding back one of the largest armies in the world. That same army which is now poised on the Ukrainian not EU Member states borders.

And the 7:31 the missiles are flying into Mariupol 7:35 not the European cities [and thanks].

And after the fights and the destroyed airport in Donetsk not in Frankfurt.

And it is always blazing in the Avdiivka  industrial zone which is being shelled.

There it was very hard and not in Montmartre.

And none of the countries of Europe know what the military funerals are around the country in all regions.

And none of the European leaders know what is it to regularly meet with the families of the dead soldiers.

No matter what, we're going to protect our beautiful land. Either we have 150,000 or 1 million soldiers of any army. In order to help Ukraine indeed we don't need to hear how many of them are there how many armaments they have. We need to hear how many are there of us together to help Ukraine. We don't need to be reminded of the dates of the plausible intervention. We're going to protect our land on the 16th of June or February or the 1st of March and the 31st December. We need other dates much more than these dates and everyone understands what kind of date tomorrow is - the day of commemoration of the heavenly hundred.

Eight years ago Ukrainians [have] made their choice and many of them have sacrificed their lives for that. Do you [r] think that eight years later Ukraine should keep calling for acknowledgement of our European perspective. Since 2014 Russia is convincing everyone that this was an erroneous past part for Ukraine, that no one is waiting for us in Europe. Isn't Europe that should be saying and proving them wrong. Isn't it Europe who should be saying today that our citizens have a positive attitude towards Ukraine joining the union. Why are we avoiding this question. Doesn't Ukraine deserve to have direct and frank answers. The same is true about NATO. We are told the doors are open but [but] so far the strangers are not allowed. If not all the members are willing to see us there or all members don't want to see us there, be honest about it. Open doors are good but we need open answers [but] not the years and years of closed questions. Is isn't the right for truth part of our opportunities and the sooner the better. The soonest summit in Madrid for example, the Russian federation is saying that the Ukraine [is] wants to join NATO to bring the Crimean back by force. It's good to hear that bring back the Crimea is something that they mentioned in their rhetoric but they didn't read carefully article 5 of the NATO charter, the collective actions are for protection, not for attacking. The Crimean [and] the occupied lands of Donbass will come back to the Ukraine but only through peaceful process.

Ukraine is consistent about [the] Normandy and Minsk agreement. The foundation is the recognition of the territorial integrity and independence of our state. We want to have diplomatic resolution over the military conflict. Exclusively I would like to emphasize based on [their] international law.

So what in reality is happening now in Minsk in the peaceful process. Two years ago with the presidents of France and Russian Federation and German chancellor we agreed about a full fledged ceasefire and Ukraine is committed to these agreements and we're observing them. We are we keep uh 11:29 not responding to the provocations we're submitting proposals to the Normandy foreign trilateral content groups and we see instead shelling and bullets. Our soldiers are dying, our peaceful population is dying, civil infrastructure is being destroyed. The last two days have become very symbolic. Massive shelling  from the armament prohibited by the Minsk agreement. It's important to allow for the observers of the OSCE to visit. They are being threatened, they're being scared [terrorized], all humanitarian questions are being blocked. Two years ago I signed into law the unconditional access of humanitarian organizations into the detainees but on the temporary occupied territories they're simply not allowed. After two exchanges of prisoners this process has been stalled [although] and blocked. Although Ukraine has been sharing the approved lists torches 12:35 until the death in the notorious Islazia prison isolation prison. Donetsk now is the symbol of human rights violation. In November the two new crossing points that we opened in Luhansk Oblast have not been put into operation and we see this as an obstruction under false pretext. [And] Ukraine is doing its best to push this discussion to  push discussion for political questions as well. In the TCG 13:08 in the Minsk process we have submitted the proposals and the drafts of law but everything is blocked and no one is talking about them.

Ukraine demands urgently to unblock the negotiation process at the same time this does not mean that looking for peace is limited and restricted only by that. We are prepared to look for the keys to end the war in all possible formats and all possible platforms. Paris, Minsk, Istanbul, Beijing, Barcelona, it doesn't matter where in the world [we'll ]we will agree about the peace in Ukraine. Four countries will be there, seven countries will be, 100 countries, it doesn't matter, the most important - Russia and Ukraine to be there. What is important is the understanding that we need not only us who need peace the world needs peace. We need to restore uh 14:09 peace and integrity in the internationally acknowledged borders.

[And] I hope no one is thinking Ukraine as a permanent buffer between Russian Federation and the west. This will never happen. No one allow this to happen. Otherwise there will be a question [of ]who is [are] the next NATO countries will have to protect each other.

I would I want to believe that [the] North Atlantic Treaty and article 5 will be more effective than the Budapest Memorandum. [The fact is we were the third biggest nuclear power in the world and we gave them away in return for security guarantees, but we have no security guarantee.] --- For the refusal the fact the we refuse for from the third biggest nuclear power we receive the security guarantees we are no longer we don't we no longer have that weapon neither do we have the security. - -- We have lost parts of our territory which is bigger in territory than Switzerland, Netherlands, or Belgium. Millions of citizens have been lost. All of that has been lost but we still have something we have the right to demand, to move from the appeasement policy to ensuring the guarantees of security.

Since 2014 three times Ukraine has tried to call for consultations for the guarantors of the countries who guaranteed the Budapest Memorandum. Three times no success. This will be the fourth time today that we're going to do this. As a president for the first time but both Ukraine and me is [are going to] will do this the last time. We are initiating the Budapest Memorandum and call for the [uh 15:57 and ask] the foreign minister to have this meeting, and if as the result of this, we're not going to guarantee of defense after this summit, we will think [officially conclude] that [the] Budapest Memorandum is not working. It's and all the package decisions of 1994 have been put in question and compromised.

In the nearest weeks I propose to call the  [a] summit of the countries of the security council with the participation of Europe, Germany and Turkey to resolve security challenges in Europe and come up with a new effective guarantees of security guarantees for Ukraine the guarantees that we need before we become the members of the defense council, being in this gray zone in a security vacuum so to speak.

What else can we do now:

We can continue the effective support of Ukraine and its defense capabilities,

Provide the European perspective,

Provide the support as are provided to the candidate countries,

and providing specific timelines for Ukraine possible membership in their alliance.

We need support for the transformation in our country to create the stability and [the] restoration fund, the land lease 17:15 program uh

supplying new armament and equipment to our army the army, which is protecting the whole Europe.

An effective preventative sanctions package is what we need to restrain the aggression

and the energy integration of the Ukraine into European Union in the times when Nord Stream 2 17:38 is being used as a weapon.

All these questions require answers. Instead there is silence and while this silence persists there will be no silence in the East of Ukraine. In the East of Europe and in the whole world. I do hope finally the whole world will understand this and Europe will understand.

Ladies and Gentlemen I'm very grateful to the countries who have supported Ukraine with their words [and] with their declarations and specific support - those who are on our side, on the side of truth, on the side of international law. I'm not calling my friends out by names. I don't want some countries to be ashamed, but this is their business, this is their matter, these are their countries, their karma, and this is their conscience they have to look into. I [although I] don't know how they will be able to explain these actions to the two people who were killed and three wounded Ukrainian soldiers today and three girls from Kyiv [Kiev] ten six and one years old who don't have a father any longer. At six o'clock in the morning East European time when Ukrainian scout officer was killed from the artillery shell prohibited by Minsk. I don't know what he thought about at the last second of his life. He didn't really for sure understand what kind of agenda we need for the meeting to stop the war in the East but what he knew is the answer to the question that I asked at the very beginning. He very well knows [knew] who is lying here. Rest in peace to him and to all those who have died for [the] enduring these years of all in the eastern back country.

Thank You.

*** END ***

The following are some images taken from the speech video.

The title of the video in the reference is highly inappropriate. Next to the Biden speech announcing to the world that he believes Russia will invade Ukraine and go all the way into the capital, this speech also will go down in history. If Russia invades, both of these speeches will be the most important speeches of the last 100 years on par with speeches from Winston Churchill and Franklin D. Roosevelt entering into World War II.

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Official Transcript from the Presidents Office

The following is the full translated transcript of the speech delivered by President Volodymyr Zelensky at the 58th Munich Security Conference on February 19, 2022. It was published by the President's Office and is republished here without changes. Zelensky delivered the speech in Ukrainian. [8]

Ladies and Gentlemen!

Two days ago I was in Donbas, on the delimitation line. Legally - between Ukraine and the temporarily occupied territories. In fact, the delimitation line between peace and war. Where on the one side there is a kindergarten, and on the other side there is a projectile that hit it. On the one side there is a school, on the other side there is a projectile hitting the school yard.

And next to it there are 30 children who go... no, not to NATO, but to school. Someone has physics classes. Knowing its basic laws, even children understand how absurd the statements that the shelling is carried out by Ukraine sound.

Someone has math classes. Children can calculate the difference between the number of shelling occasions in these three days and the occasions of mentioning Ukraine in this year's Munich Security Report without a calculator.

And someone has history classes. And when a bomb crater appears in the school yard, children have a question: has the world forgotten its mistakes of the XX century?

What do attempts at appeasement lead to? As the question "Why die for Danzig?" turned into the need to die for Dunkirk and dozens of other cities in Europe and the world. At the cost of tens of millions of lives.

These are terrible lessons of history. I just want to make sure you and I read the same books. Hence, we have the same understanding of the answer to the main question: how did it happen that in the XXI century, Europe is at war again and people are dying? Why does it last longer than World War II? How did we get to the biggest security crisis since the Cold War? For me, as the President of a country that has lost part of the territory, thousands of people and on whose borders there are now 150,000 Russian troops, equipment and heavy weapons, the answer is obvious.

The architecture of world security is fragile and needs to be updated. The rules that the world agreed on decades ago no longer work. They do not keep up with new threats. They are not effective for overcoming them. This is a cough syrup when you need a coronavirus vaccine. The security system is slow. It crashes again. Because of different things: selfishness, self-confidence, irresponsibility of states at the global level. As a result, we have crimes of some and indifference of others. Indifference that makes you an accomplice. It is symbolic that I am talking about this right here. It was here 15 years ago that Russia announced its intention to challenge global security. What did the world say? Appeasement. Result? At least - the annexation of Crimea and aggression against my state.

The UN, which is supposed to defend peace and world security, cannot defend itself. When its Charter is violated. When one of the members of the UN Security Council annexes the territory of one of the founding members of the UN. And the UN itself ignores the Crimea Platform, the goal of which is to de-occupy Crimea peacefully and protect the rights of Crimeans.

Three years ago, it was here that Angela Merkel said: "Who will pick up the wreckage of the world order? Only all of us, together." The audience gave a standing ovation. But, unfortunately, the collective applause did not grow into collective action. And now, when the world is talking about the threat of a great war, the question arises: is there anything left to pick up? The security architecture in Europe and the world is almost destroyed. It's too late to think about repairs, it's time to build a new system. Mankind has done this twice, paying too high a price - two world wars. We have a chance to break this trend until it becomes a consistent pattern. And start building a new system before millions of victims. Having the old lessons of the First and Second World Wars, not our own experience of the possible third, God forbid.

I talked about it here. And on the rostrum of the UN. That in the XXI century there are no more foreign wars. That the annexation of Crimea and the war in Donbas affects the whole world. And this is not a war in Ukraine, but a war in Europe. I said this at summits and forums. In 2019, 2020, 2021. Will the world be able to hear me in 2022?

This is no longer a hypothesis, but not an axiom yet. Why? Evidence is needed. More important than words on Twitter or statements in the media. Action is required. It is the world that needs it, not just us.

We will defend our land with or without the support of partners. Whether they give us hundreds of modern weapons or five thousand helmets. We appreciate any help, but everyone should understand that these are not charitable contributions that Ukraine should ask for or remind of.

These are not noble gestures for which Ukraine should bow low. This is your contribution to the security of Europe and the world. Where Ukraine has been a reliable shield for eight years. And for eight years it has been rebuffing one of the world's biggest armies. Which stands along our borders, not the borders of the EU.

And Grad rockets hit Mariupol, not European cities. And after almost six months of fighting, the airport in Donetsk was destroyed, not in Frankfurt. And it's always hot in the Avdiivka industrial zone - it was hot there in the last days, not in Montmartre. And no European country knows what military burials every day in all regions are. And no European leader knows what regular meetings with the families of the deceased are.

Be that as it may, we will defend our beautiful land no matter if we have 50,000, 150 or one million soldiers of any army on the border. To really help Ukraine, it is not necessary to say how many servicemen and military equipment are on the border. Say what numbers we have.

To really help Ukraine, it is not necessary to constantly talk only about the dates of the probable invasion. We will defend our land on February 16, March 1 and December 31. We need other dates much more. And everyone understands perfectly well which ones.

Tomorrow in Ukraine is the Day of the Heroes of the Heavenly Hundred. Eight years ago, Ukrainians made their choice, and many gave their lives for that choice. Eight years later, should Ukraine constantly call for recognition of the European perspective? Since 2014, Russia has been convincing that we have chosen the wrong path, that no one is waiting for us in Europe. Shouldn't Europe constantly say and prove by action that this is not true? Shouldn't the EU say today that its citizens are positive about Ukraine's accession to the Union? Why do we avoid this question? Doesn't Ukraine deserve direct and honest answers?

This also applies to NATO. We are told: the door is open. But so far authorized access only. If not all members of the Alliance want to see us or all members of the Alliance do not want to see us, be honest. Open doors are good, but we need open answers, not open questions for years. Isn't the right to the truth one of our enhanced opportunities? The best time for it is the next summit in Madrid.

Russia says Ukraine seeks to join the Alliance to return Crimea by force. It is gratifying that the words "return Crimea" appear in their rhetoric. But they inattentively read Article 5 of the NATO Charter: collective action is for protection, not offensive. Crimea and the occupied regions of Donbas will certainly return to Ukraine, but only peacefully.

Ukraine consistently implements the Normandy agreements and the Minsk agreements. Their foundation is the unquestionable recognition of the territorial integrity and independence of our state. We seek a diplomatic settlement of the armed conflict. Note: solely on the basis of international law.

So what is really going on in the peace process? Two years ago, we agreed with the Presidents of France, the Russian Federation, the Chancellor of Germany on a full-scale ceasefire. And Ukraine is scrupulously adhering to these agreements. We are as restrained as possible against the background of constant provocations. We are constantly making proposals in the framework of the Normandy Four and the Trilateral Contact Group. And what do we see? Shells and bullets from the other side. Our soldiers and civilians are being killed and wounded, and civilian infrastructure is being destroyed.

The last days have become especially illustrative. Hundreds of massive shelling occasions with weapons prohibited by the Minsk agreements. It is also important to stop restricting the admission of OSCE observers to Ukraine's TOT. They are threatened. They are intimidated. All humanitarian issues are blocked.

Two years ago, I signed a law on the unconditional admission of representatives of humanitarian organizations to detainees. But they are simply not admitted to the temporarily occupied territories. After two exchanges of captives, the process was blocked, although Ukraine provided agreed lists. Inhuman torture at the infamous Isolation Prison in Donetsk has become a symbol of human rights abuses.

The two new checkpoints we opened in November 2020 in the Luhansk region still do not function - and here we see outright obstruction under contrived pretexts.

Ukraine is doing everything possible to reach progress in discussions and political issues. In the TCG, in the Minsk process, we've put forward proposals - draft laws, but everything is blocked - no one talks about them. Ukraine demands to unblock the negotiation process immediately. But this does not mean that the search for peace is limited to it alone.

We are ready to look for the key to the end of the war in all possible formats and platforms: Paris, Berlin, Minsk. Istanbul, Geneva, Brussels, New York, Beijing - I don't care where in the world to negotiate peace in Ukraine.

It does not matter if four countries, seven or a hundred participate, the main thing is that Ukraine and Russia are among them. What is really important is the understanding that peace is needed not only by us, the world needs peace in Ukraine. Peace and restoration of territorial integrity within internationally recognized borders. This is the only way. And I hope no one thinks of Ukraine as a convenient and eternal buffer zone between the West and Russia. This will never happen. Nobody will allow that.

Otherwise - who's next? Will NATO countries have to defend each other? I want to believe that the North Atlantic Treaty and Article 5 will be more effective than the Budapest Memorandum.

Ukraine has received security guarantees for abandoning the world's third nuclear capability. We don't have that weapon. We also have no security. We also do not have part of the territory of our state that is larger in area than Switzerland, the Netherlands or Belgium. And most importantly - we don't have millions of our citizens. We don't have all this.

Therefore, we have something. The right to demand a shift from a policy of appeasement to ensuring security and peace guarantees.

Since 2014, Ukraine has tried three times to convene consultations with the guarantor states of the Budapest Memorandum. Three times without success. Today Ukraine will do it for the fourth time. I, as President, will do this for the first time. But both Ukraine and I are doing this for the last time. I am initiating consultations in the framework of the Budapest Memorandum. The Minister of Foreign Affairs was commissioned to convene them. If they do not happen again or their results do not guarantee security for our country, Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum is not working and all the package decisions of 1994 are in doubt.

I also propose to convene a summit of permanent members of the UN Security Council in the coming weeks with the participation of Ukraine, Germany and Turkey in order to address security challenges in Europe. And elaborate new, effective security guarantees for Ukraine. Guarantees today, as long as we are not a member of the Alliance and in fact are in the gray zone - in a security vacuum.

What else can we do now? Continue to effectively support Ukraine and its defense capabilities. Provide Ukraine with a clear European perspective, the tools of support available to candidate countries, and clear and comprehensive timeframes for joining the Alliance.

Support the transformation in our country. Establish a Stability and Reconstruction Fund for Ukraine, a land-lease program, the supply of the latest weapons, machinery and equipment for our army - an army that protects the whole of Europe.

Develop an effective package of preventive sanctions to deter aggression. Guarantee Ukraine's energy security, ensure its integration into the EU energy market when Nord Stream 2 is used as a weapon.

All these questions need answers.

So far we have silence instead of them. And as long as there is silence, there will be no silence in the east of our state. That is - in Europe. That is - in the whole world. I hope the whole world finally understands this, Europe understands.

Ladies and Gentlemen!

I thank all the states that supported Ukraine today.

In words, in declarations, in concrete help. Those who are on our side today. On the side of truth and international law. I'm not calling you by name - I don't want some other countries to be ashamed. But this is their business, this is their karma. And this is on their conscience. However, I do not know how they will be able to explain their actions to the two soldiers killed and three wounded in Ukraine today.

And most importantly - to three girls from Kyiv. One is ten years old, the second is six, and the third is only one. Today they were left without a father. At 6 o'clock in the morning Central European Time. When the Ukrainian intelligence officer, Captain Anton Sydorov was killed as a result of artillery fire prohibited by the Minsk agreements. I don't know what he thought at the last moment of his life. He definitely didn't know what agenda someone needs to meet to end the war.

But he knows exactly the answer to the question I asked at the beginning. He knows exactly who of us is lying.

May his memory live forever. May the memory of all those who died today and during the war in the east of our state live forever.

Thank you.

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President Zelensky Address to US Congress

Auto generated transcript from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UjDw4FWbRw.

Thank you.

Good morning.

Good morning, Mr. President.

Good morning, madam ambassador who is with us this morning.

Who is with us this morning.

Madam ambassador.

[ applause ] [ applause ] ambassador Makarova.

Mr.

President, it is my honor to present to you the congress of the united states, which has great respect and admiration and appreciation for your courageous leadership.

Members of congress, I have the high privilege and distinct honor of presenting to you the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky.

[ speaking foreign language ] [ applause ] >> my colleagues -- [ speaking foreign language ] >> translator: glory to heroes.

Thank you very much.

Madam speaker, members of the congress, ladies and gentlemen, Americans, friends, I'm proud to greet you from Ukraine, former capital city of Kyiv, a city that is under missile and air strikes from Russian troops every day, but it doesn't give up.

And we have not even thought about it for a second, just like many other cities and communities in our beautiful country which found themselves in the worst war since world war ii.

I have the honor to greet you on behalf of the Ukrainian people, brave, and freedom loving people who for eight years have been resisting the Russian aggression.

Those who give their best sons and daughters to stop this full-scale Russian invasion.

Right now the destiny of our country is being decided.

The destiny of our people, whether Ukrainians will be free, whether they will be able to preserve their democracy, Russia has attacked not just us, not just our land, not just our cities, it went on a brutal offensive against our values, basic human values.

It threw tanks and planes against our freedom, against our right to live freely in our own country, choosing our own future.

Against our desire for happiness, against our national dreams, just like the same dreams you have, you, Americans, just like anyone else in the united states, I remember your national memorial in Rushmore.

The faces of your prominent presidents, those who laid the foundation of the united states of America as it is today, democracy, independence, freedom and care for everyone, for every person, for everyone who works diligently, who lives honestly, Ukraine want the same for our people.

All that is normal part of your own life.

Ladies and gentlemen, friends, Americans, in your great history you have things that would have allowed you to understand Ukrainians.

Understand us now when you need it right now -- when we need you right now, remember pearl harbor, terrible morning of December 7, 1941 when your sky was black from the planes attacking you, just remember it.

Remember September the 11th, a terrible day in 2001 when evil tried to turn your cities, independent territories in battlefields, when innocent people were attacked, attacked from air, yes, just like nobody else expected it, you could not stop it.

Our country experiences the same every day, right now at this moment, every night for three weeks now, various Ukrainian cities Odesa and Sumy, Mariupol, Russia has turned the Ukrainian sky into a source of death for thousands of people.

Russian troops have already fired nearly 1,000 missiles at Ukraine, countless bombs, they use drones to kill us with precision.

This is a terror that Europe has not seen, has not seen for 80 years and we are asking for a reply, for an answer to this terror from the whole world.

Is this a lot to ask for? To create a no-fly zone over Ukraine to save people, is this too much to ask? Humanitarian no-fly zone, something that Ukraine -- that Russia would not be able to terrorize our free cities.

If this is too much to ask, we offer an alternative.

You know what kind of defense systems we need, s-300 and other similar systems.

You know how much depends on the battlefield on the ability to use aircraft, powerful, strong aviation to protect our people, our freedom, our land.

Aircraft that can help Ukraine, help Europe and, you know that they exist, and you have them but they are on earth, not in the Ukrainian sky.

They do not defend our people.

I have a dream, these words are known to each of you today, I can say, I have a need.

I need to protect our sky.

I need your decision, your help which means exactly the same, the same you feel when you hear the words, I have a dream.

Ladies and gentlemen, friends, Ukraine is grateful to the united states for its overwhelming support, for everything that your government and your people have done for us for weapons and ammunition, for training, for finances, for leadership in the free world which helps us to pressure the aggressor economically.

I'm grateful to president Biden for his personal involvement, for his sincere commitment to the defense of Ukraine and democracy all over the world.

I am grateful to you for the resolution which recognizes all those who commit crimes against Ukraine, against the Ukrainian people as war criminals.

However, now it is true in the darkest time for our country, for the whole Europe, I call on you to do more.

New packages of sanctions are needed constantly, every week until the Russian military machine stops.

Restrictions are needed for everyone on whom this unjust regime is based.

We've proposed that the united states sanction all politicians in the Russian federation who remain in their offices and to not cut ties with those who are responsible for the aggression against Ukraine, from state duma members to the last official who has lack of morale to break the state terror, all American companies must leave Russia from their market, leave their market immediately because it is flooded with our blood.

Ladies and gentlemen, members of congress, please take the lead if you have companies in your districts who finance the Russian military machine leaving business in Russia, you should put pressure.

I am asking to make sure that the Russians do not receive a single penny that they use to destroy people in Ukraine.

The destruction of our country, the destruction of Europe, all American ports should be closed for Russian goods.

Peace is more important than income and we have to defend this principle in the whole world.

We already became part of the anti-war -- big anti-war collision that unites many countries, dozens of countries, those who reacted in principle to president Putin's decision to invade our country but we need to move on and do more.

We need to create new tools to respond quickly and stop the war -- the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine which began on February 24th.

And it would be fair if it ended in a day, in 24 hours that evil would be punished immediately.

Today the world does not have such tools.

The war of the past have prompted our predecessors to create institutions that should protect us from war, but they unfortunately don't work.

We see it, you see it.

So we need new ones, new institutions, new alliances and we offer them.

We propose to create an association, you-24, united for peace, a union of responsible countries that have the strength and consciousness to stop conflicts immediately, provide all the necessary assistance in 24 hours if necessary even weapons if necessary sanctions, humanitarian support, political support, finances, everything you need to keep the peace and quickly, save the world -- to save lives.

In addition, such association, such union could provide assistance to those who are experiencing natural disasters, man-made disasters who fell victim to humanitarian crisis or epidemics, remember how difficult it was for the world to do the simplest thing, just to give vaccines, vaccines against covid to save lives to prevent new strains, the world spent months, years doing things like that, much faster to make sure there are no human losses, no victims.

Ladies and gentlemen, Americans, if such alliance would exist today that is u-24, we would be able to save thousands of lives in our country.

In many countries of the world, those who need peace.

Those who suffer inhumane destruction.

I ask you to watch one video, video of what the Russian troops did in our country, in our land.

We have to stop it.

We must prevent it, preventively destroy every single aggressor who seeks to subjugate other nations.

Nations.

Please watch the video.

And today, today it's not enough to be the leader, it takes to be the leader of the world, being the leader of the world means to be the leader of peace.

Peace in your country doesn't depend anymore only on you and your people.

It depends on those next to you and those who are strong, strong doesn't mean weak.

Strong is brave and ready to fight for the life of its citizens and citizens of the world.

Human rights, for freedom, for the right to live peacefully and to die when your time comes and not when it's wanted by someone else, by your neighbor.

Today the Ukrainian people are defending not only Ukraine, we are fighting for the values of your and the world in the name of the future.

That's why today the American people are helping not just Ukraine, but Europe and the world to keep the planet alive, world to keep the planet alive, to keep justice in history.

Now I'm almost 45 years old.

Today my age stopped when the hearts of more than 100 children stopped beating, I see no sense in life if it cannot stop the deaths and this is my main mission as a leader of my people, great Ukrainians and as the leader of my nation, I am addressing the president Biden, you are the leader of the nation, of your great nation, I wish you to be the leader of the world, being the leader of the world means to be the leader of peace.

Thank You

Love Ukraine

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President Xi Jinping Video Call with US President Joe Biden

Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the People's Republic of China, Contact us Address: No. 2, Chaoyangmen Nandajie, Chaoyang District, Beijing, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202203/t20220319_10653207.html.

President Xi Jinping Has a Video Call with US President Joe Biden

2022-03-19 00:21

On the evening of 18 March, President Xi Jinping had a video call with US President Joe Biden at the request of the latter. The two Presidents had a candid and in-depth exchange of views on China-US relations, the situation in Ukraine, and other issues of mutual interest.

President Biden said that 50 years ago, the US and China made the important choice of issuing the Shanghai Communiqué. Fifty years on, the US-China relationship has once again come to a critical time. How this relationship develops will shape the world in the 21st century. Biden reiterated that the US does not seek a new Cold War with China; it does not aim to change China’s system; the revitalization of its alliances is not targeted at China; the US does not support “Taiwan independence”; and it has no intention to seek a conflict with China. The US is ready to have candid dialogue and closer cooperation with China, stay committed to the one-China policy, and effectively manage competition and disagreements to ensure the steady growth of the relationship. President Biden expressed readiness to stay in close touch with President Xi to set the direction for the US-China relationship.

President Xi noted the new major developments in the international landscape since their first virtual meeting last November. The prevailing trend of peace and development is facing serious challenges. The world is neither tranquil nor stable. As permanent members of the UN Security Council and the world’s two leading economies, China and the US must not only guide their relations forward along the right track, but also shoulder their share of international responsibilities and work for world peace and tranquility.

President Xi stressed that he and President Biden share the view that China and the US need to respect each other, coexist in peace and avoid confrontation, and that the two sides should increase communication and dialogue at all levels and in all fields. President Biden has just reiterated that the US does not seek to have a new Cold War with China, to change China’s system, or to revitalize alliances against China, and that the US does not support “Taiwan independence” or intend to seek a conflict with China. “I take these remarks very seriously,” said President Xi.

President Xi pointed out that the China-US relationship, instead of getting out of the predicament created by the previous US administration, has encountered a growing number of challenges. What’s worth noting in particular is that some people in the US have sent a wrong signal to “Taiwan independence” forces. This is very dangerous. Mishandling of the Taiwan question will have a disruptive impact on the bilateral ties. China hopes that the US will give due attention to this issue. The direct cause for the current situation in the China-US relationship is that some people on the US side have not followed through on the important common understanding reached by the two Presidents and have not acted on President Biden’s positive statements. The US has misperceived and miscalculated China’s strategic intention.

President Xi underscored that there have been and will continue to be differences between China and the US. What matters is to keep such differences under control. A steadily growing relationship is in the interest of both sides.

The two sides exchanged views on the situation in Ukraine.

President Biden expounded on the US position, and expressed readiness for communication with China to prevent the situation from exacerbating.

President Xi pointed out that China does not want to see the situation in Ukraine to come to this. China stands for peace and opposes war. This is embedded in China’s history and culture. China makes a conclusion independently based on the merits of each matter. China advocates upholding international law and universally recognized norms governing international relations. China adheres to the UN Charter and promotes the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security. These are the major principles that underpin China’s approach to the Ukraine crisis. China has put forward a six-point initiative on the humanitarian situation in Ukraine, and is ready to provide further humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and other affected countries. All sides need to jointly support Russia and Ukraine in having dialogue and negotiation that will produce results and lead to peace. The US and NATO should also have dialogue with Russia to address the crux of the Ukraine crisis and ease the security concerns of both Russia and Ukraine.

President Xi stressed that with the need to fight COVID-19 on the one hand and protect the economy and people’s livelihood on the other, things are already very difficult for countries around the world. As leaders of major countries, we need to think about how to properly address global hotspot issues and, more importantly, keep in mind global stability and the work and life of billions of people. Sweeping and indiscriminate sanctions would only make the people suffer. If further escalated, they could trigger serious crises in global economy and trade, finance, energy, food, and industrial and supply chains, crippling the already languishing world economy and causing irrevocable losses. The more complex the situation, the greater the need to remain cool-headed and rational. Whatever the circumstances, there is always a need for political courage to create space for peace and leave room for political settlement. As two Chinese sayings go, “It takes two hands to clap.” “He who tied the bell to the tiger must take it off.” It is imperative that the parties involved demonstrate political will and find a proper settlement in view of both immediate and long-term needs. Other parties can and should create conditions to that end. The pressing priority is to keep the dialogue and negotiation going, avoid civilian casualties, prevent a humanitarian crisis, and cease hostilities as soon as possible. An enduring solution would be for major countries to respect each other, reject the Cold War mentality, refrain from bloc confrontation, and build step by step a balanced, effective and sustainable security architecture for the region and for the world. China has been doing its best for peace and will continue to play a constructive role.

The two Presidents agreed that the video call is constructive. They directed their teams to promptly follow up and take concrete actions to put China-US relations back on the track of steady development, and make respective efforts for the proper settlement of the Ukraine crisis.

Ding Xuexiang, Liu He and Wang Yi were present at the call.

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Russia Invades Ukraine

On February 23, 2022 at 10:00 PM Russia began the invasion of Ukraine with missile strikes in the heart of Ukraine. At an emergency UN meeting the Ukrainian representative stated that Russia declared war on Ukraine and offered to play the speech from Putin announcing the invasion. The Ukrainian representative then stated that Russia violated its UN membership suggesting that Russian membership was no longer valid and that a special meeting be convened immediately to stop this war.

The western media are clearly stating that Putin is no longer acting rationally and that we are the point in history like 1939 when like Germany, Russia invaded a country for no reason other than empire building.

It is unclear what the Russian army will do and it is unclear how the Ukrainians will deal with the invading army. Everyone assumes a terrible fight but that may not be the case.

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Military and Other Capabilities

The following is an assessment of miltary capabilities as of February 2022. [9]

The military challenge is higher than in previous wars Russia has fought since the Soviet Union's collapse, including in breakaway Chechnya (1.4 million people) in the 1990s and against Georgia (10.6 million people) in 2008.

Name Role Birth Date Age
Volodymyr Oleksandrovych Zelenskyy Democratically Elected President of Ukraine January 25, 1978 44
Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin President of Russia since 2012 October 7, 1952 69

Comparing Ukraine And Russia's Military Might. This is a report by Global Firepower that shows the disparities in military power between Ukraine and Russia. Helicopters includes all such aircraft, including attack helicopters. Published on January 21, 2022. Data as of January 2022. [14]

Military Capability

Ukraine

Russia

NATO

Population (million)

44

144

947

Defense budget (billion)

$11.9

$154

$1,200

Active manpower

200,000

850,000

3,366,000

Armored vehicles

12,303

30,122

115,855

Attack aircraft

98

1,511

3,527

Airforce

4,173

20,700

Naval Fleet strength

38

605

2,049

Helicopters

146

2,087

8,485

Mobile rocket launchers

490

3,391

2,803

Paramilitary manpower

50,000

250,000

738,700

Reserve manpower

250,000

250,000

1,301,000

Self-propelled artillery

1,067

6,574

5,040

Special-mission aircraft

5

132

1,014

Tanks

2,596

12,420

14,682

Towed artillery

2,040

7,571

5,495

Trainer aircraft

71

522

-

Transports aircraft

32

445

1,543

Naval Forces

605

2,049

Nuclear Weapons

0000

6,065

6,255

[Ref: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-nato-military-strength-comparison-goes-viral-amid-rising-tension-1683269, April 21, 2022.]
[Ref: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/this-is-how-much-nato-countries-spend-on-defense, April 21, 2022.]

The following is a comparison of the military capabilities of NATO and Russia as of March 03, 2022 and March 16, 2022.

Military Capability

NATO
03/03/22

Russia
03/03/22

Ukraine
03/16/22

Personnel

-

-

-

Total military personnel

5,405,700

1,350,000

500,000

Active soldiers

3,366,000

850,000

200,000

Reserve forces

1,301,000

250,000

250,000

Paramilitary units

738,700

250,000

50,000

Air Force

-

-

-

Total aircraft

20,723

4,173

318

Fighters / interceptors

3,527

772

69

Ground attack aircraft

1,048

739

29

Transport aircraft

1,543

445

32

Special aircraft (e.g reconnaissance)

1,014

132

Tanker aircraft

678

20

Total helicopters

8,485

1,543

112

Combat helicopters

1,359

544

34

Trainers

522

71

Ground combat vehicles

-

-

-

Main battle tanks

14,682

12,420

Armored vehicles

115,855

30,122

Self-propelled artillery

5,040

6,574

Tower artillery

5,495

7,571

Self-propelled rocket launchers

2,803

3,391

Naval forces

-

-

-

Total military ships

2,049

605

Destroyers

112

15

Frigates

135

11

Corvettes

56

86

Aircraft carriers

17

1

Submarines

144

70

Patrol boats

298

59

Minesweepers

153

49

Nuclear Weapons

-

-

-

Nuclear warheads

6,065

6,255

[Ref: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1293174/nato-russia-military-comparison, April 21, 2022.]
[Ref: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1296573/russia-ukraine-military-comparison, April 21, 2022]

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Ukrainian History 1

The following are selected extracts from The Atlantic. [10]

They got most of it right except for one small detail that is actually the massive reason why we are watching this massive human disaster unfold. That detail is provided at the end of this section in bold text.

Calamity Again
by Taras Shevchenko 1859
Ukrainian Poet

Dear God, calamity again!
It was so peaceful, so serene;
We had just begun to break the chains
That bind our folk in slavery
When halt! Once again the people’s blood
Is streaming …

The poem Calamity Again was written in Ukrainian, in 1859. Taras Shevchenko, was not speaking metaphorically when he wrote about slavery. Shevchenko was born into a family of serfs and slaves on an estate in central Ukraine. At the time it was controlled by the Russian empire. Taken away from his family as a child, he followed his master to St. Petersburg, where he was trained as a painter and also began to write poetry. Impressed by his talent, a group of other artists and writers helped him purchase his freedom. [10]

Shevchenko is recognized as one of Ukraine’s most prominent poets. His words define the particular set of memories and emotions that describes Ukrainian national identity. Much has been written about Russian views of Ukraine. On February 21, 2022, in an hour long rant, Putin the president of Russia thinks Ukraine shouldn’t exist at all. Ukrainians have a different view as they fight for their national identity and resist cultural genocide.

The Ukrainians, Russians and Belarusians, came from the medieval state of Kyivan Rus. Like the Irish and the Slovaks, Ukrainians became a land based colony of other empires. In the 16th and 17th centuries Ukrainian noblemen learned to speak Polish and participated in Polish court life. Later some Ukrainians learned Russian to seek positions of power in the Russian empire and then in the Soviet Union.

During those same centuries, a sense of Ukraine identity developed that was linked to the peasantry, serfs, and farmers who would not assimilate. They are not the noblemen, they are not the elites, they are the majority of the people that form a culture and make a country. The Ukrainian language, as well as Ukrainian art and music were all preserved in the countryside, while in the Ukrainian cities Polish or Russian was spoken. Ukrainian identity was once a statement about status and social position as well as ethnicity. Being Ukrainian meant defining oneself against the nobility, against the ruling class, against the merchant class, against the urbanites. Later, it meant being against the Soviet Union. Ukrainian partisans fought against the Red Army in 1918, the Second World War, and the early years of the Cold War. The Ukrainian identity was and is anti elitist.

In the 19th century Ukrainian culture was expressed in voluntary, religious, and charitable organizations, civil society self help, and study groups that published periodicals and newspapers. They founded schools, Sunday schools, and promoted literacy among the peasants. As they gained strength and numbers, Moscow saw these grassroots Ukrainian organizations as a threat to the unity of imperial Russia. In 1863 and 1876, the empire banned Ukrainian books and persecuted Ukrainians who wrote and published the books. Shevchenko spent years in exile.

Ukrainian culture survived in the villages and grew stronger among intellectuals and writers. Ukrainians attempted to establish a nation state (country) during the Bolshevik revolution in 1917. They lost that chance in the civil war, but the Bolsheviks allowed a Ukraine republic within the Soviet Union that was run by Ukrainian Communists. Ukrainian mistrust of authority, especially Soviet authority, is ingrained in the culture. In 1929 when Stalin started forced collectivization of agriculture across the Soviet Union a series of rebellions broke out in Ukraine. Stalin feared that he would, as he put it, lose Ukraine. Stalin feared that even Ukrainian communists did not want to obey his orders. The soviet secret police organized teams of activists to go from house to house and confiscate food in rural Ukraine. Millions of Ukrainians died in the resulting famine. Mass arrests of Ukrainian intellectuals, writers, linguists, museum curators, poets, and painters followed.

In 1991 a grassroots civic movement won independence from the Soviet Union. Ukrainians remained wary of the state, even of their own state, in the following years. The state, the government, the rulers, the power, were not trusted. There was no tradition of Ukrainian public service, civil service, or military service. There was massive corruption in all of the former Soviet republics but it was very bad in Ukraine, perhaps because of this distrust and lack of service.

Eventually millions of Ukrainians began to wake up and resist both corruption and autocracy. Ukrainians in the 21st century became invigorated with the desire for democracy, for freedom, for the rule of law, for integration in Europe. By the beginning of the 21st century, Ukrainians began to object to the post Soviet establishment linked by financial interests to Russia.

In 2005 and 2014, self-organized Ukrainian movements toppled their Russian backed corrupt kleptocratic autocratic leaders who fixed Ukrainian elections, ignored the rule of law, and blatantly stole massive amounts of wealth. In 2005, Russia responded with a renewed effort to interfere in Ukrainian politics. In 2014, Russia invaded Crimea and eastern Ukrainian cities in Donbas.

In 2019, 70 percent of Ukrainians voted against the establishment and a total outsider became president. A Jewish actor born in eastern Ukraine with no political experience. He had long history of making fun of those who are in power. This is the kind of humor that Ukrainians value most. Volodymyr Zelensky was famous for playing a school teacher who rants against corruption and is filmed by a student. In the television series, the clip goes viral and the teacher wins the presidency. Zelensky, the actor makes fun of of the corrupt players and outsmarts them in the long running TV series. Ukrainians wanted Zelensky the real life president to do the same for real in their country of Ukraine.

During his election campaign, Zelensky promised to end the war with Russia. The conflict along the border of eastern Ukraine has taken more than 14,000 lives in the past decade. Many Ukrainians hoped he would achieve that goal. He did seek to establish links to the inhabitants of occupied Crimea and Donbas. He asked for meetings with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin. He also kept seeking Ukrainian integration with the West.

Ukraine is now under brutal attack. Tens of thousands of Russian troops are moving through its eastern provinces, along its northern border and its southern coast.

Like the Russian czars, Stalin, and Lenin before Putin, he perceives Ukrainians as a threat. Not a military threat, but an ideological threat. Ukraine’s determination to become a democracy is a genuine challenge to Putin’s imperial political project of the creation of an autocratic kleptocracy in which he is all-powerful. Ukraine undermines this project just by existing as an independent state. By striving for something better, for freedom and prosperity, Ukraine becomes a dangerous rival. If Ukraine succeeds in its decades long push for democracy, the rule of law, and European integration, then the Russian make seek the same.

Just like in the CIA Factbook on Ukraine, absent from the above brief history on Ukraine is the most significant event in human history. In 1994 the country of Ukraine had the world's third largest nuclear weapons stockpile. They gave up their nuclear weapons between 1994 and 1996 as part of an agreement that would ensure that its territorial integrity would be preserved. The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances is an agreement signed at the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Budapest, Hungary on December 5, 1994. The agreement was signed by three nuclear powers, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America. At the heart of this current war is the fact that this guarantee for security and territorial integrity was broken by Russia in 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine, annexed Crimea and occupied eastern Ukraine. It is unclear how such a significant event and agreement could be missing from this brief history on Ukraine because it fits with their cultural background described above. [1]

In systems analysis it is always about the key issues, key requirements, key system drivers.

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Ukrainian History 2

The following are selected extracts that recently appeared in the Guardian. [15]

***  PARTIAL EXTRACT START ***

Thirty years ago, as the countries of the former Soviet Union declared their independence, everyone breathed a sigh of relief that the empire disappeared so gently. Aside from a nasty irredentist conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the ethnic Armenian exclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, there was very little violence. But gradually, almost imperceptibly, conflict began appearing at the edges of the former USSR. Advertisement

In Moldova, Russian troops supported a small separatist movement of Russian-speakers that eventually formed the tiny breakaway republic of Transnistria. In Georgia, the autonomous region of Abkhazia, also supported by Russian arms, fought a short war with the central government in Tbilisi, as did South Ossetia. Chechnya, a Russian republic that had fiercely resisted the encroachment of the empire throughout the 19th century, and which suffered terribly under Soviet rule, declared its own wish for independence, and was ground down in not one but two brutal wars. Tajikistan endured a civil war, in part a fallout from the civil war raging in Afghanistan, with which it shared a border. And on and on. In 2007, Russia launched a cyber-attack against Estonia, and in 2008, it responded to an attempt by Georgia to retake South Ossetia with a massive counter-offensive. Despite all this, it was still common for people to say that the dissolution of the Soviet Union had been miraculously peaceful. And then came Ukraine.

In the laboratory of nation-building that was the former empire, Ukraine stood out. Some of the Soviet former republics had longstanding political traditions and distinct linguistic, religious and cultural practices; others less so. The Baltic states had each been independent for two decades between the world wars. Most of the other republics had had, at best, a brief experiment with independence in the immediate wake of the collapse of tsarism in 1917. To complicate matters, many of the newfound nations had significant Russian-speaking populations who were either uninterested in or actively hostile toward their new national projects.

Ukraine was unique on all these fronts. Though it, too, had only existed as an independent state in modern times for a few short years, it had a powerful nationalist movement, a vibrant literary canon, and a strong memory of its independent place in the history of Europe before Peter the Great. It was very large - the second-largest country in Europe after Russia. It was industrialised, being a major producer of coal, steel and helicopter engines, as well as grain and sunflower seeds. It had a highly educated populace. And that populace at the time it became independent in 1991 numbered 52 million - second only to Russia among post-Soviet states. It was strategically located on the Black Sea and on the border with numerous eastern European states and future Nato members. It possessed what had once been the most beautiful beaches in the USSR, on the Crimean peninsula, where the Russian tsars had spent their summers, as well as the USSR's largest warm water naval port, in Sevastopol. It had suffered greatly during the German advance into the Soviet Union in 1941 - of the 13 'hero cities' of the USSR, so called because they saw the heaviest fighting and raised the stoutest resistance, four were in Ukraine (Kyiv, Odesa, Kerch and Sevastopol). The economies of Russia and Ukraine were deeply intertwined. Ukrainian factories in Dnipropetrovsk were a vital part of the military-industrial capacity of the USSR, and Russia's largest export gas pipelines ran through Ukraine. Strategically, in the words of historian Dominic Lieven, describing the situation circa the first world war, Ukraine could not have been more vital. 'Without Ukraine's population, industry and agriculture, early-20th-century Russia would have ceased to be a great power.' The same was true, or seemed to be true, in 1991.

Ukraine was not just geopolitically significant to Russia. It was culturally and historically, too. The Russian and Ukrainian languages had diverged sometime in the 13th century, and Ukraine had a distinct and notable literature, but the two remained close - about as close as Spanish and Portuguese. While most of the country was ethnically Ukrainian, there was, particularly in the east, a large ethnic Russian minority. Perhaps more important, while the official language was Ukrainian, the lingua franca in most of the large cities was Russian. And perhaps even more important than that, most people knew both languages. It was common on television to see a journalist, for example, ask a question in Russian and receive an answer in Ukrainian, or to have a panel of experts for a talent show with two Russian-language judges and two Ukrainian-language judges. It was a genuinely bilingual nation - a rare thing.

From a Russian nationalist perspective, that was a problem. Why speak two languages when you could just speak one? Crimea was a particularly sore spot: the vast majority of the population identified as Russian. And once you started thinking about Crimea, you then started thinking about eastern Ukraine. There were many Russians there. To be sure, there were also Russians in other places - in northern Kazakhstan, for example, and eastern Estonia. There were irredentist claims on these areas as well, and occasionally they flared up. The writer turned political provocateur Eduard Limonov, for example, was arrested in Moscow in 2001 for allegedly plotting to invade northern Kazakhstan and declare it an independent ethnic Russian republic. But no place held such a central part in the Russian historical imagination as Ukraine.

For the first 20 years of independence, Russia kept a very close eye on developments in Ukraine, and interfered in various ways, but that was as far as it went. That was as far as it needed to go. Ukraine's large Russian-language population guaranteed, or seemed to guarantee, that the country would not stray too far from the Russian sphere of influence.

In Ukraine itself, even aside from the Russian presence, there were the birth agonies of a nation. Many of the new post-Soviet countries had their share of problems - corrupt elites, restive ethnic minorities, a border with Russia. Ukraine had all this, and more. Because it was large and industrialised, there was plenty of it to steal. Because it had a major Black Sea port in the city of Odesa, there was an easily accessible seaway through which to steal it. As became clear in 2014, when it became time to use it, much of the equipment of the old Ukrainian army was smuggled out of the country through that port.

On top of this, Ukraine was, if not divided, then certainly not immediately recognizable as a unified whole. Because it had so many times been conquered and partitioned, the country's historical memory itself was fractured. In the words of one historian, 'Its different parts had different pasts.' To make things worse, one of the most treasured aspects of the political culture of Ukraine, historically - the legacy of the Cossack hetmanate of the 17th century - was anarchism. The original Cossacks were warriors who had escaped serfdom. Their political system was a radical democracy. There was something beautiful about this. But in terms of the construction of a modern state, it had its drawbacks. In a now-infamous CIA analysis written shortly after the creation of independent Ukraine, it was predicted that there was a good chance the country would fall apart.

And yet, for two decades, it didn't. For better and worse, democracy was rooted deep in Ukrainian political culture, and so while in Russia power was never transferred to an opposition, in Ukraine it happened again and again. In 1994, the first president of Ukraine, Leonid Kravchuk, was voted out of office in favour of Leonid Kuchma, who promised better relations with Russia and to give the Russian language equal status in Ukraine. In 2004, his hand-picked successor, Viktor Yanukovych, was, after massive protests against a falsified election, voted out in favour of a more nationalist and pro-European candidate, Viktor Yushchenko. In 2010, Yushchenko proceeded to lose to a resurgent Yanukovych. But Yanukovych was thrown out of office by the Maidan revolution in 2014. A nationalist candidate and chocolate billionaire, Petro Poroshenko, became the next president, but he was replaced by Volodymyr Zelenskiy, a Russian-speaking pro-peace candidate, in 2019. Viktor Yushchenko after winning the re-run of the 2004 presidential election in Ukraine.

Ukrainian politics were full of conflict. Fist-fights in the Rada were common and protests were a fact of ordinary life. There were massive protests against Kuchma, for example, in 2000, when a recording surfaced of him apparently ordering the murder of the journalist Georgiy Gongadze, whose headless body had been found in the woods outside Kyiv. (Kuchma insisted the tapes were doctored. He was charged in 2011, but the prosecution was dropped after a court ruled the tapes inadmissible.) Yushchenko, the opposition candidate in 2004, barely survived a dioxin poisoning, which had all the markings of a Russian special operation. The initial round of voting in 2004 was marked by severe irregularities and clear voter fraud such as had not yet appeared in Russia. It took mass protests, known as the Orange Revolution, to win another round of voting, in which Yushchenko won. Yushchenko himself subsequently presided over a fair election in 2010, which he lost. And on and on.

These changes of power were alternately tumultuous and pedestrian, but they reflected genuine differences of opinion among the populace about what Ukraine should be. Some thought Ukraine should integrate further with Europe, others that it should remain friendly and closely connected with Russia. The cultural and historical differences between the different parts of Ukraine would surface in times of crisis.

For Russian speakers and Ukraine's remaining Jewish population, the memory of the second world war, of resistance to Nazi invasion and occupation, remained an important touchstone. Ukrainian nationalists had a different perspective on these events. For some, the occupation of their country began in 1921 (when the Bolsheviks consolidated control of Ukraine) or 1939 (when Stalin took the last part of western Ukraine as part of the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact between Germany and the USSR to carve up Poland), if not 1654, when the Cossack Hetmanate sought the protection of the Russian tsar. The famous wartime resistance fighters known as the Ukrainian Insurgent Army, who had opposed both Soviet and German occupation in western Ukraine, and who were seen as fascist villains by the Soviets, were, in the nationalist narrative, the George Washingtons of Ukrainian history. For nationalists, the signal tragedy of the 20th century was not the Nazi invasion, but instead the great famine of 1932-33, in which millions of Ukrainians died. It was known as the Holodomor - 'murder by hunger' - and was consistently referred to as a deliberate act by Stalin (and by extension Russia) to destroy the Ukrainian nation.

All these arguments took place against a backdrop of economic stagnation. Ukraine's economy was consistently one of the weakest in the former Soviet bloc. Corruption was endemic and living standards were low. Ukraine was dependent on cheap gas from Russia as well as the 'transit fees' it charged for Russian gas going to Europe.

To Ukrainians living under these see-sawing politics, going from hope to disappointment and back again, with what seemed like a permanent elite merely trading the presidency back and forth between themselves, it felt like their lives were passing them by. A journalist I met in Kyiv in 2010, who had taken part in the protests that were part of the Orange Revolution and was then let down by Yuschenko's presidency, lamented the missed opportunities. 'All this while time is passing,' he said. He couldn't believe how little had been done since 2005, and since 1991.

But there was another aspect to time passing. The more time passed, the more Ukraine's fragile nationhood could coalesce. Because what did it mean to belong to a nation? Where, in the words of the famous Soviet song, does the motherland begin? It begins with the pictures in the first book your mother reads you, according to the song. And to your good and true friends from the courtyard next door. The more people who were born in Ukraine, rather than the USSR, the more people grew up thinking of Kyiv as their capital instead of Moscow, and the more they learned the Ukrainian language and Ukrainian history, the stronger Ukraine would become. Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in the TV show that made him famous in Ukraine and eventually catapulted him to the presidency, played a Russian-speaking high school history teacher who suddenly becomes president. In the brief scenes in which we see Zelenskiy's character actually teaching, he is quizzing his students about the great Ukrainian national historian and politician Mykhailo Hrushevsky.

It was violent Russian opposition to EU membership for Ukraine that in late 2013 precipitated the Maidan revolution, which in turn precipitated the Russian annexation of Crimea and incursion into eastern Ukraine. But after the end of the cold war, it was NATO expansion that had been the greatest irritant to the relationship between Russia and the west, a relationship that found Ukraine trapped in between.

NATO expansion proceeded very slowly, then seemingly all at once. In the immediate wake of the Soviet collapse, it was not a foregone conclusion that NATO would get bigger. In fact, most US policymakers, and the US military, opposed expanding the alliance. There was even talk, for a while, of disbanding NATO. It had served its purpose - to contain the Soviet Union - and now everyone could go their separate ways.

This changed in the early years of the Clinton administration. The motor for the change came from two directions. One was a group of idealistic foreign policy hands inside the Clinton national security council, and the other was the eastern European states.

After 1991, the post-communist countries of eastern Europe, particularly Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia, found themselves in an uncertain security environment. Nearby Yugoslavia was falling apart, and they had their own potential border disputes. Most of all, though, they had a vivid memory of Russian imperialism. They did not believe Russia would remain weak for ever, and they wanted to align with NATO while they still could. 'If you don't let us into NATO, we're getting nuclear weapons,' Polish officials told a team of thinktank researchers in 1993. 'We don't trust the Russians.'

In presenting their case, it did not hurt that the leaders of the eastern European countries had a great deal of moral credibility. It was after a meeting with, among others, Vaclav Havel and Lech Walesa in Prague in January 1994 that Bill Clinton announced that 'the question is no longer whether NATO will take on new members but when.' This formulation - not whether, but when - became official US policy. Five years later, the Czech Republic (having peacefully divorced Slovakia), Hungary and Poland were inducted into NATO. In the years to come, 11 more countries would join, bringing the total number of countries in the alliance to 30.

During the recent crisis, some American pundits and policymakers have claimed that Russia did not object to NATO until quite recently, when it was searching for a pretext to invade Ukraine. The claim is genuinely ludicrous. Russia has been protesting NATO expansion since the very beginning. The Russian deputy foreign minister told Clinton's top Russia hand Strobe Talbott in 1993 that 'NATO is a four-letter word'. At a joint press conference with Clinton in 1994, Boris Yeltsin, to whom Clinton had been such a loyal ally, reacted with fury when he realized that NATO was actually moving ahead with its plans to include the eastern European states. He predicted that a 'cold peace' in Europe would be the result.

Russia was too weak, and still too dependent on western loans, to do anything except complain and watch warily as NATO increased in power. The alliance's intervention in Kosovo in 1999 was particularly disturbing to the Russian leadership. It was, first of all, an intervention in a situation that Russia viewed as an internal conflict. Kosovo was, at the time, part of Serbia. After the NATO intervention, it was, in effect, no longer part of Serbia. Meanwhile the Russians had their own Kosovo-like situation in Chechnya, and it suddenly seemed to them that it was not impossible that NATO could intervene in that situation as well. As one American analyst who studied the Russian military told me: 'They got scared because they knew what the state of Russian conventional forces was. They saw what the actual state of US conventional forces was. And they saw that while they had a lot of problems in Chechnya with their own Muslim minority, the United States just intervened to basically break Kosovo off of Serbia.'

The next year, Russia officially changed its military doctrine to say that it could, if threatened, resort to the use of tactical nuclear weapons. One of the authors of the doctrine told the Russian military paper Krasnaya Zvezda that NATO's eastward expansion was a threat to Russia and that this was the reason for the lowered threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. That was 22 years ago.

The second post-Soviet round of NATO expansion was the largest. Agreed to in 2002 and made official in 2004, it brought Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia into the alliance. Almost all these states were part of the Soviet bloc, and Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - the 'Baltics' - were once part of the Soviet Union. Now they had joined the west.

As this was happening, a series of events shook up the Russian periphery. The 'colour revolutions' - coming in quick succession in Georgia in 2003 (Rose), Ukraine in 2004 (Orange) and Kyrgyzstan in 2005 (Tulip) - all used mass protests to eject corrupt pro-Russian incumbents. These events were greeted with great enthusiasm in the west as a reawakening of democracy, and with skepticism and trepidation in the Kremlin as an encroachment on Russian space. In the US, policymakers celebrated that freedom was on the march. In Moscow, there was a slightly paranoid concern that the colour revolutions were the work of the western secret services, and that Russia was next.

The Kremlin might not have been right about a long-range western plot, but they weren't wrong to think that the west never saw it as an equal, as a peer. The fact is that at every turn, at every sticking point, in every situation, the west, and the US in particular, did what it wanted to do. It was, at times, exquisitely sensitive to Russian perceptions; at other times, cavalier. But in all cases the US just pressed ahead. Eventually this just became the way things were. Relations between the two sides soured, and positions hardened. In 2006, Dick Cheney gave an aggressive speech in the Lithuanian capital, Vilnius, in which he celebrated the achievements of the Baltic nations. 'The system that has brought such great hope to the shores of the Baltic can bring the same hope to the far shores of the Black Sea, and beyond,' he said. 'What is true in Vilnius is also true in Tbilisi and Kyiv, and true in Minsk, and true in Moscow.' As Samuel Charap and Timothy Colton note in their excellent short history of the 2014 Ukraine conflict, Everyone Loses, 'One can only conjecture the reaction to such statements in the Kremlin.'

A year later, at the 2007 Munich Security Conference, in what is widely considered a key turning point in relations between Russia and the west, Putin delivered his response, assailing the US and its unipolar system for its arrogance, its flouting of international law, and its hypocrisy. 'We are constantly being taught about democracy,' he said of Russia. 'But for some reason those who teach us do not want to learn themselves.'

The warning was heard, but not heeded. In April 2008, in Bucharest, NATO countries met and delivered a promise that Georgia and Ukraine 'will become members of NATO'. It was, as many have since noted, the worst of both worlds: a promise of membership without any of the actual benefits, in the form of security guarantees, that membership would bring. A few months later, in what, up to that point, was by far the most significant military action outside its borders, Russia defeated Georgia in a decisive five-day war. Russian tanks in South Ossetia in Georgia in 2008.

In retrospect, one could argue that if NATO had moved faster and accepted Ukraine and Georgia much earlier, none of what followed would have happened. This argument has the virtue of examples to bolster it: the Baltics entered NATO, and despite being former Soviet republics, have experienced relatively little Russian harassment since. But one could also argue that, in the face of mounting Russian alarm and repeated warnings about 'red lines' over NATO, the US States and its allies should have been extra careful. They should have taken into account the specificity of the places they were dealing with, in particular Ukraine. Ukraine was not Russia, in Leonid Kuchma's famous phrase, but it was also not Poland. One of the problems with Ukraine's NATO bid in 2008, for example, pushed forth by the western-friendly Yushchenko administration, was that it was unpopular inside Ukraine - in large part because Ukrainians knew how Russia felt about it, and were rightly worried.

But as NATO and the EU both expanded further east, their representatives considered it a matter of principle not to make compromises with a regime they viewed as trying to bully them and Ukraine. Again, they may have been right in principle. In practice, Putin has been warning of this invasion, in one form or another, for 15 years. A great many voices are now saying that we should have been much tougher on Putin much earlier - that the sanctions we are now seeing should have been deployed after the war in Georgia in 2008, or after the polonium poisoning in London of Alexander Litvinenko in 2006. But there is also a case to be made that we should have thought more deeply about how to create a security arrangement, and an economic one, in which Ukraine would never have been faced with such a fateful choice.

Still, at the centre of this tragedy lies one man: Vladimir Putin. He has embarked on a murderous and criminal war that also appears almost certain to be judged a colossal strategic blunder - uniting Europe, galvanising NATO, destroying his economy and isolating his country. What happened?

*** EXTRACT END ***

This war would have never happened if Ukraine did not give away their Nuclear weapons and instead took the same position as Poland. This US policy decision may has been the worst policy decision in the past 100 years. It was only a matter of time before Russia would eventually invade Ukraine, regardless of the reasons. Ukrainian Nuclear weapons would have placed Ukraine at the same level as Russia and Russia would have respected their position. Both countries would have found common ground and Ukraine would have never needed to ask for NATO entry. What a disaster.

This is a simple systems cause and effect analysis. Cause and effect move history. There must have been those that developed the various scenarios and it is clear that the long term scenario pointed to Ukraine being able to defend itself, especially in the context of Poland that also faced the same situation and deciding to keep their Nuclear weapons. It's not like Ukraine did not have massive Nuclear management capability in country. They had and continue to have multiple Nuclear power stations including one of the largest Nuclear power plants in Europe. This author remembers those days and Ukraine was painted as some corrupt unstable society filled with ignorant people that could not be trusted with Nuclear weapons. This was a lie and it did not reflect the facts of: a highly educated population, a population that was managing multiple Nuclear facilities, and a people that saved Europe from Nuclear contamination after the Chernobyl disaster. However, it is easy to see why Ukraine wanted to rid themselves of Nuclear weapons because of the Chernobyl disaster. They were taken advantage of by toxic forces. These are the same toxic forces at work today in 2022 as Ukraine fights for its very survival.

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Systems Assessment and Possible Scenarios

Putin has stated that the greatest tragedy in the 20th century is the fall of the communist Soviet Union. It is clear that his policy has been and is to reconstitute the Russian Empire with its colonies from previous centuries. This war has nothing to do with NATO encroachment. If NATO did not expand, the world still would be facing this same result of Russia eventually using war to invade other countries and force them to become part of a new Russian empire. The following are possible scenarios from the invasion of Ukraine.

Scenario Description Status Outcome Comment
A. There is little or no Ukrainian resistance. The Ukrainian president and political power structure flees the country. Russia establishes a new Russian puppet government in Ukraine. This is the best case scenario for Russia. This is probably what was expected by Putin. Did not happen Ukraine Loses the war This is a devastating scenario for NATO and the USA. Putin begins the next steps of his policy to reconstitute the Russian Empire and other countries (the Baltics) are invaded eventually leading to Poland and then what was once East Germany.
B. There is Ukrainian resistance, however the Ukrainian president and political power structure flees the country. Did not happen Ukraine Loses the war See scenario A.
C. There is Ukrainian resistance and the Ukrainian president and political power structure do not flee the country. They run out of supplies and Russia eventually takes the country. Unlikely Insurgency war The world gains massive respect for Ukrainians and the Russian invasion is stalled. Demonstrations increase in Russia. However, there is no additional help from the world. The war becomes an insurgency war.
D. Scenario C plus the world begins to provide more supplies. Current state in March 2022 Insurgency war Scenario C, but the insurgency war continues for years.
E. Scenario D but Putin agrees to negotiations offered by President Zelensky. Current situation defuses for the near term This is an unlikely scenario because too much has been invested in the Russian war effort.
F. Scenario D and Ukrainian resistance stalls invasion for months if not years. Active war Massive demonstrations in Russia but Russian policy does not change.
G. Scenario F but Russian demonstrations have an internal impact. Putin and the related power structure is replaced in an internal revolution. Ukraine wins the War Most assume this is an unlikely scenario. However, war is always met with unknown outcomes. This could actually be a win win scenario. The Ukrainian and Russian people are free to pursue their futures.
H. Ukraine is immediately admitted into NATO and directs Russia to immediately stop the war and begin peace talks with the new NATO country. Unknown Russia either continues the war, stops, or escalates the war to include NATO. Putin has made threats associated with their Nuclear status. It is unclear if the military would support Putin in a first strike order.
I. Ukraine surrenders. Unlikely to happen Active war stops This may save the Ukrainian cities. Russia will be brutal to all Ukrainians. There will be massive roundups of people and many will die or be sent to prisons. Russia will treat the west poorly. Ukrainian refugees will never return to Ukraine. Russian empire expansion will continue.

In recent Putin speeches (2/24 - 2/26 2022), there are significant signs of panic. Some suggest it is a tactic to show that he is insane as part of a Russian strategy. This is unlikely. He is actually under severe stress probably because this same type of scenario analysis was performed by Russian systems analysts. They expected Scenarios A or B. Instead they are currently facing Scenario F and fearing that they may soon need to deal with internal unrest that could lead to Scenario G. However, western journalists in Russia claim that mainstream Russians support the war. It is unclear if that support will shift as reality starts to sink into the mass mind in Russia.

Scenario H is extremely high risk. If the war continues and expands to other countries NATO may be forced to exercise Scenario H.

Some have suggested that this invasion is similar to the invasion of Poland by Germany in 1939. The invasion may be the same, and the words used by Hitler and Putin may be the same, but the cause is radically different. Germany was suffering from WW I reparations that left the economy and population devastated. Hitler came in, ended the democracy, and started to build a massive war machine that lifted Germany out of the massive poverty. This eventually led to a complete collapse of the German civilization as the Nazis took over and started their war and death system. Russia did not suffer the same level of economic collapse that Germany suffered. Its population did not suffer for a long period of time as the west tried to work with all the former Soviet regions. They were not isolated and forced to pay war reparations for the cold war fiasco. At the time of the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian population enjoyed a relatively high standard of living. There was no reason for Russia to invade Ukraine. The Ukrainians did not do severe harm, real or perceived, to the Russian people. This is why President Biden has repeatedly stated that this is a war that was not needed, it is a war that should have never happened, this is Putins war.

This Russian war is a war of Empire building to feed ego and financial rewards to a few in Russia. It is a traditional war of conquest for the sake of conquest and what riches it may bring to the aggressors. This is a very sad chapter of history for the Russian people. If the aggression continues, and more people are harmed, eventually the Russian people will reach the same evil level as the German people. This is a history that they will never be able to erase.

The people of Russia arrived at this point because they rejected common sense and allowed a leader to remain in power for far too long a time period. At the first signs of corruption the people of Russia should have stood up and removed their leader. Instead they turned a blind eye. All systems are natural systems and all natural systems behave the same way. We know absolute power corrupts absolutely. No matter what anyone may claim that is the natural state of our world. If we are fortunate, those who have absolute power know their responsibility and will choose an enlightened path but that is rare.

This war is not a Russian Ukrainian war. It is much bigger that anyone realizes at this time including the Russian people.

There are additional systems assessments provided in the Key Daily Events section. They are significant.

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Policy Assessment

The following is an assessment of Western policies towards Russia. It lists the events and shows the policy results.

Event

Western
Policy

Russian
Response

Spill
Over

Russian Impacts Ukrainian Impacts
Invasion of Donbas and Crimea

Failure

Invasion

No

Gained territory Lost territory, Ukrainians died
Occupation of Donbas and Crimea

Failure

Escalation

No

Held territory 14,000 Ukrainians died in War since 2014.
Russian Army enters Ukraine beyond occupied territories

Failure

Invasion Phase 2

No

Sanctions Ukrainians die
Russia attacks Ukrainian military targets

Failure

Escalation

No

Sanctions Ukrainians die, massive refugees flee
Russia attacks Ukrainian civilians and infrastructure

Failure

Escalation

Yes

Sanctions, gaining cities Ukrainians die, massive refugees flee
Russia surrounds and takes Ukrainian cities

Failure

Escalation

Yes

Sanctions, Russia nationalizing international companies Ukrainians die, refugee crisis in receiving countries
Russia trying to surround and take Kyiv

Failure

Escalation

Yes

Russia requests military and economic support from China Ukrainians die, refugee crisis in receiving countries

Systems Assessment: Western policy is being driven by European and Chinese dependence on Russian oil. Many alive today are wondering why the world is so intertwined and co-dependent. This was a conscious policy decision that was made in the 1970's. The thought at the time was that if the countries of the world were fully dependent on each other then the risk of war would be eliminated and the nuclear threat would become a distant memory. Unfortunately as with all systems, the ideal system structure does not exist. As with all systems people are an integral part of the system and people behave irrationally. We are seeing the system of world wide co-dependence fail. It is unclear if it can be repaired and continue to support a world of peace. This is not unlike those who study supply and demand as part of economic theory. It only works when people behave rationally. So the system requires external elements to stabilize the system and have it perform in a way that is highly effective and fully satisfies the need.

This is similar to the COVID-19 response where those in positions of authority with access denied that COVID-19 is airborne. The Russian invasion of Ukraine is just another symptom of very bad management. The 40 mile convoy in Ukraine should have been destroyed immediately. History will not be kind to the West as they allowed a tyrant to destroy a country in a way not seen since World War II. This generation is in really big trouble. What a mess.

See section Military Defense Systems.

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Gulf War versus Russian Invasion of Ukraine

It was reasonable for Ukraine to expect that they should have been given the same level of defense in 2014 and in the follow on of total invasion in 2022 that was provided to Kuwait when Iraq invaded and annexed Kuwait in 1990. Throughout the Cold War, Iraq had been an ally of the Russian Soviet Union, and there was a history of friction between Iraq and the United States. The operations were code named Operation Desert Shield (2 August 1990 - 17 January 1991) during the buildup of troops and Operation Desert Storm (17 January 1991 - 28 February 1991) during the combat phase. The Russian Soviet Union condemned Baghdad's aggression against Kuwait, but did not support the United States and allied intervention in Iraq and tried to avoid the conflict.

The US and the UN gave several public justifications for involvement in the conflict, the key item being the Iraqi violation of Kuwaiti territorial integrity. In addition, the US moved to support its ally Saudi Arabia, whose importance in the region, and as a key supplier of oil, made it of considerable geopolitical importance. Shortly after the Iraqi invasion, US Defense Secretary Dick Cheney made the first of several visits to Saudi Arabia where King Fahd requested US military assistance. During a speech in a special joint session of the US Congress given on September 11, 1990, US President George Bush summed up the reasons stating that: Within three days, 120,000 Iraqi troops with 850 tanks had poured into Kuwait and moved south to threaten Saudi Arabia. It was then that President Bush decided to act to check that aggression.

This is why the Ukrainians are bewildered by the response they received from their allies.

On August 2, 1990, the Iraqi military invaded Kuwait and fully occupied the country within two days.

There are different speculations for the reasons behind the invasion, including Iraq's inability to pay Saudi Arabia and Kuwait more than US $14 billion dollars that it borrowed to finance its military efforts during the Iran - Iraq War, and Kuwait's surge in petroleum production levels, which kept revenues down for Iraq. Throughout most of the 1980s, Kuwait's oil production was above its mandatory OPEC quota, which kept international oil prices down. Iraq interpreted Kuwait's refusal to decrease its oil production as an act of aggression towards the Iraqi economy. Iraq also claimed Kuwait had been part of the Ottoman Empire's province of Basra and made Kuwait rightful Iraqi territory. Kuwait's ruling dynasty, the al-Sabah family, concluded a protectorate agreement in 1899 that assigned responsibility for Kuwait's foreign affairs to the United Kingdom. The UK drew the border between Kuwait and Iraq in 1922, making Iraq almost entirely landlocked. Kuwait rejected Iraq attempts to secure further provisions in the region.

The invasion of Kuwait was met with international condemnation, and economic sanctions against Iraq were immediately imposed by the United Nations Security Council. British prime minister Margaret Thatcher and American president George H. W. Bush deployed troops and equipment into Saudi Arabia, and urged other countries to send their own forces. In response to the call, many nations joined the US led coalition, forming the largest military alliance since World War II. The bulk of the coalition's military forces were from the United States with Saudi Arabia, United Kingdom, and Egypt as the largest contributors, in that order. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia paid approximately  US $32 billion of the US $60 billion cost.

The war effort to expel Iraqi forces from Kuwait began with an aerial and naval bombardment on January 17, 1991 and continued for five weeks. During this period, Iraq began to launch missiles into Israel with the goal of provoking a response by the Israeli military, which the Iraqi leadership expected to prompt the coalition's Muslim states to withdraw and therefore jeopardize the alliance against Iraq. As the Iraqi missile campaign against Israel failed to generate the desired response, Iraq launched Scud missiles at coalition targets stationed in Saudi Arabia. This was followed by a ground assault by the coalition into Iraqi and Kuwait was occupied on February 24, 1991. The offensive was a decisive victory for coalition forces, who liberated Kuwait and began to advance past the Iraq Kuwait border into Iraqi territory. Approximately 100 hours after the beginning of the ground campaign, the coalition ceased its advance and declared a ceasefire. Aerial and ground combat was confined to Iraq, Kuwait, and areas straddling the Iraq Saudi Arabia border.

Before the invasion, the Kuwaiti military was believed to have numbered 16,000 men, arranged into three armored, one mechanized infantry and one small artillery brigade. The pre-war strength of the Kuwait Air Force was approximately 2,200 Kuwaiti personnel, with 80 fixed wing aircraft and 40 helicopters. Kuwait did not mobilize its force and during the Iraqi invasion many Kuwaiti military personnel were on leave.

By 1988, at the end of the Iran Iraq war, the Iraqi Army was the world's fourth largest army, consisting of 955,000 standing soldiers and 650,000 paramilitary forces in the Popular Army. One low estimate suggested the Iraqi Army has 4,500 tanks, 484 combat aircraft and 232 combat helicopters. One high estimate suggested the Iraqi Army has one million men and 850,000 reservists, 5,500 tanks, 3,000 artillery pieces, 700 combat aircraft and helicopters. It held 53 divisions, 20 special-forces brigades, and several regional militias, and had a strong air defense.

Within 12 hours of the Iraq invasion most resistance ended within Kuwait and the royal family had fled allowing Iraq to control most of Kuwait. After two days of intense combat, most of the Kuwaiti military were either overrun by the Iraqi military or had escaped to Saudi Arabia. Saddam initially installed a puppet regime known as the Provisional Government of Free Kuwait before installing his cousin Ali Hassan al-Majid as Kuwait's governor on August 08, 1991.

The US response to the invasion of Kuwait was massive.

The US Navy dispatched two naval battle groups to the Persian Gulf built around the aircraft carriers USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and USS Independence. They were ready by August 08, 1991. The US also sent the battleships USS Missouri and USS Wisconsin to the region. A total of 48 US Air Force F-15s from the 1st Fighter Wing at Langley Air Force Base, Virginia, landed in Saudi Arabia and immediately commenced round the clock air patrols of the Saudi - Kuwait - Iraq border to discourage further Iraqi military advances. They were joined by 36 F-15 A-Ds from the 36th Tactical Fighter Wing at Bitburg, Germany. The Bitburg contingent was based at Al Kharj Air Base, approximately an hour south east of Riyadh. The 36th TFW would be responsible for 11 confirmed Iraqi Air Force aircraft shot down during the war. Two Air National Guard units were stationed at Al Kharj Air Base, the South Carolina Air National Guard's 169th Fighter Wing flew bombing missions with 24 F-16s flying 2,000 combat missions dropping four million pounds (1,800,000 kilograms; 1,800 metric tons) of munitions, and the New York Air National Guard's 174th Fighter Wing from Syracuse flew 24 F-16s on bombing missions. The military buildup eventually reached 543,000 troops, twice the number used in the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

Much of the material was airlifted or carried to the staging areas via fast sealift ships, allowing a quick buildup. As part of the buildup, amphibious exercises were carried out in the Gulf, including Operation Imminent Thunder, which involved the USS Midway and 15 other ships, 1100 aircraft, and 1,000 Marines. In a press conference, General Schwarzkopf stated that these exercises were intended to deceive the Iraqi forces, forcing them to continue their defense of the Kuwaiti coastline.

The Gulf War began with an extensive aerial bombing campaign on January 16, 1991. For 42 consecutive days and nights, the coalition forces subjected Iraq to one of the most intensive air bombardments in military history. The coalition flew over 100,000 sorties, dropping 88,500 tones of bombs, which widely destroyed military and civilian infrastructure. The coalition launched a massive air campaign, which began the general offensive code named Operation Desert Storm. The priority was the destruction of Iraq's Air Force and anti-aircraft facilities. The sorties were launched mostly from Saudi Arabia and the six carrier battle groups (CVBG) in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea. The next targets were command and communication facilities. Saddam Hussein closely micromanaged Iraqi forces in the Iran - Iraq War, and initiative at lower levels was discouraged. Coalition planners thought that Iraqi resistance would quickly collapse if deprived of command and control. The air campaign's third and largest phase targeted military targets throughout Iraq and Kuwait: Scud missile launchers, weapons research facilities, and naval forces. About a third of the coalition's air power was devoted to attacking Scuds, some of which were on trucks and therefore difficult to locate. US and British special operations forces had been covertly inserted into western Iraq to aid in the search for and destruction of Scuds. The Gulf War had three of the largest tank battles in American military history.

Iraqi anti-aircraft defenses, including man-portable air-defense systems, were surprisingly ineffective against enemy aircraft, and the coalition suffered only 75 aircraft losses in over 100,000 sorties, 44 due to Iraqi action. Two of these losses are the result of aircraft colliding with the ground while evading Iraqi ground-fired weapons. The USAF F-117 Nighthawk was one of the key aircraft used in Operation Desert Storm.

The war marked the introduction of 24/7 live news broadcasts from the front lines of the battle, principally by the American network CNN. There were daily broadcast of images from cameras onboard American bombers during Operation Desert Storm. The live images showed that the US stealth aircraft were able to completely bypass the air defense systems.

Based on the history of the Gulf War it was reasonable on the part of the Ukrainians to expect that there would be a similar response to the invasion of Ukraine. However that did not happen. History will speculate for generations why there were differences. Not widely known, but prior to the invasion of Kuwait, President Bush stated that the US was not interested in the fall of Kuwait suggesting that the US would do nothing if Iraq invaded. The US policy completely changed and the US was going to war in an effort similar to World War II. It was terrifying. It is unclear what happened. There is a complete media void, but having lived through that history, it is clear that these events occurred. One of the West's main concerns was the significant threat Iraq posed to Saudi Arabia. Following Kuwait's conquest, the Iraqi Army was within easy striking distance of Saudi oil fields. Control of these fields, along with Kuwaiti and Iraqi reserves, would have given Saddam control over the majority of the world's oil reserves.

Acting on the Carter Doctrine policy, and out of fear the Iraqi Army could launch an invasion into Saudi Arabia, US President George H. W. Bush quickly announced that the US would launch a wholly defensive mission to prevent Iraq from invading Saudi Arabia, under the code name Operation Desert Shield. The operation began on August 07, 1990, when US troops were sent to Saudi Arabia. This was also at the request of Saudi Arabia, monarch King Fahd, who had earlier called for US military assistance. This wholly defensive doctrine was quickly abandoned when, on August 08, 1990, when Iraq declared Kuwait to be Iraq's 19th province and Saddam named his cousin, Ali Hassan Al-Majid, as its military-governor.

The following is a sequence and timeline of key events:

The primary reasons for the different response to Ukraine will include:

  1. Ukraine did not offer any significant vested interests like insuring the world oil supply.
  2. Ukraine as a relatively poor country did not offer cash to help defend the country.
  3. It was clear that Ukraine would be running up a large tab based on actual goods and services provided as part of the military and refugee costs.
  4. Russia was neutral in the Gulf War.
  5. Russia is the aggressor.
  6. Russia acting out of control with bizarre claims and goals just like Iraq in the Gulf War, but they have Nuclear weapons.

History will probably suggest that the different response is associated reason #6 Russia acting out of control with bizarre claims and goals just like Iraq in the Gulf War, but they have Nuclear weapons.

However, the history will also show that the fear of the Nuclear threat was misplaced because of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) and the fact that the Russian Military does not want their families to die in a war to end all wars. Although Putin may have lost his marbles, those around him might be crazy and greedy megalomaniacs, and the ground military in Ukraine appears to be filed with many psychopaths, the reality is the military personnel in charge of the Nuclear weapons will not want to kill themselves nor will they make the calculated risk for a war with Ukraine that is basically irrelevant, pointless, and stupid.

As of April 11, 2021 the Russian military has withdrawn from various Ukrainian areas and regrouping to begin a massive assault of the western and southern portion of Ukraine in a battle of massive ground military power. Now is the time to act and prevent Russia from moving its military into this region. There does not appear to be any efforts to stop this event. The Ukrainians have stated that they have a strategy and that they will fight but they need heavy weapons to counter this offensive. They will not have the advantage of urban warfare. It will be out in the open.

Now is the time for Putin to be read the riot act and stop. We will see what happens.

In the Gulf War it was the US that organized and led the coalition to invade and free Kuwait. This was at the request of Saudia Arabia. In the Russian invasion of Ukraine it is the EU that is controlling the situation and the US can not act as the leader. Russia is selling its oil and gas to China, India, and the EU. Many suggest that the EU should stop oil and gas imports from Russia, but that would devastate the EU because they have no other alternatives. This is a direct result of policies in the previous century to make countries dependent on each other to avoid war. It was a peace strategy. What few discuss is the scenario of Russia deciding to cut off gas and oil from the EU. If that should happen then the EU will have no choice but too follow the same path that was followed in the Gulf War. For now the approach is to contain the conflict in Ukraine and the US is willing to accept that approach that is clearly driven by the EU needs at this time.

See section Key Daily Events.

[Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_War]

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Ukrainian Refugees

A fund raising event in Warsaw on April 09, 2022 pledged nearly $11 billion in donations, loans, and grants to support refugees fleeing war in Ukraine and those internally displaced. Both the European commission and the Canadian government, who organized the fundraiser in concert with international the anti-poverty organization Global Citizen, were among the donors, whose pledges included direct donations, loans and grants to assist refugees fleeing Ukraine after Russia’s February 24, 2022 invasion. As of April 09, 2022 there are 4.3 million Ukrainian refugees in neighbouring countries and another 6.5 million people are displaced inside the war torn country. Although the effort is noble it is a drop in the bucket for the actual costs that must be addressed and translates to $1018 per person for the 10.8 million people impacted.

The actual refugee cost estimates are provided in section War Costs and Reparations and approach $ 1 trillion dollars. War is a huge reality check on thinking and actions that must be performed. The systems analysis is clear that the damage due to the Russian invasion just from the Ukrainian Refugees is massive. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Ukrainian Refugees on April 09, 2022 is shown in the following table. [Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Ukrainian_refugee_crisis]

Country Refugees Country Refugees Country Refugees
Poland

2,593,902

Estonia

39,500

United Kingdom

12,000

Romania

686,232

Israel

35,000

Norway

11,000

Hungary

419,101

Portugal

28,243

Slovenia

10,000

Moldova

410,882

Sweden

27,954

Belgium

10,000

Slovakia

314,485

Spain

25,000

Czechia

300,000

Switzerland

24,837

Germany

310,000

Denmark

24,000

Bulgaria

152,340

Netherlands

21,000

Italy

88,593

Latvia

20,000

Turkey

58,000

Ireland

16,891

France

45,000

Finland

16,000

Austria

42,000

Greece

16,700

Lithuania

41,900

Croatia

15,000

In the US there is a debate on the treatment of refugees suggesting that some refugees have more favorable treatment and that race is one of the primary factors. When searching the Internet to determine type of refugees there is little information suggesting that all refugees are the same, they are people seeking refuge. However it is obvious that these people fall into the following  categories:

  1. War Refugee: These are people fleeing an active war. This is the case with the Russian invasions of multiple countries in the 21st century
  2. Displaced Person Refugee: These are people that have no place to go because their country is gone. This was the case after World War II.
  3. Food Starvation Refugee: Those that are fleeing starvation or immanent starvation. This is in very poor regions of the world.
  4. Economic Refugee: This fleeing massive economic hardship of immanent economic collapse. This is in very poor regions of the world.
  5. Political Refugee: This fleeing for their lives because of their political stance and or associations. This is the case with China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, Iraq, and other countries with repressive political systems.

This is a opposed to the following people that are not refugees:

  1. Seeking a Better Job: These are people seeking more money and or a better position in another country and come on work visas. These are typically but not always highly educated or skilled people.
  2. Choosing a Different Country: These are people choosing a different country, they have the means to buy citizenship status in another county. These are rich and upper middle class people.
  3. Choosing a Better Way of Life: These are people choosing a different country, but they do not have the means to buy citizenship status in another county. These are poor people.
  4. Migrant Workers: These are people that migrate temporarily to different countries typically as part of seasonal work. For example people migrate from south America to North America to support agriculture needs.

The US refugee crisis at the Mexican border is associated with those Choosing a Better Way of Life. The current Ukrainian refugee crisis is associated with War Refugees. Depending on the outcome of the war, if Ukraine should lose the war, then the Ukrainian refugees will include: Displaced Person Refugees, Political Refugees, and perhaps Food Starvation Refugees.

These categories of people are obvious from a systems perspective. The moral question is who gets priority when allowing entry into a country. Ideally everyone would be welcomed into the country regardless of the numbers seeking entry. A consideration for the new host country is the amount of money sent back to support family and friends in the original country. Another consideration is the level of cultural disruption in the new country. For example, will the new refugees accept and adapt to the new country culture or is it just a temporary stop until they can go home. If it is a temporary stop, how disruptive will their desire to reject the new country culture be to the host country. If there are similar cultures then the disruption will be less than if there are large cultural differences. These are all important system considerations on the part of the host country and will set the priority of which refugees are selected by the host country. The refugee acceptance key requirements are:

Based on the above key requirements the following table shows the cultural affinity between Ukrainians and a host country. It does not suggest that Ukrainians will not survive, prosper, and be happy in countries with less cultural affinity. Keep in mind that Ukrainians also come from many different lands and their ancestors can trace roots to these various countries. The Ukrainians probably have a better handle on this table than what is shown, this is only one mental model. The Ukrainians probably have data.

Country Cultural Affinity Country Cultural Affinity Country Cultural Affinity
Poland

Very High

Estonia

High

United Kingdom

High

Romania

High

Israel

High

Norway

Very High

Hungary

High

Portugal

High

Slovenia

High

Moldova

High

Sweden

Very High

Belgium

High

Slovakia

High

Spain

High

Canada

Very High

Czechia

High

Switzerland

Very High

USA

Very High

Germany

Med (see 3)

Denmark

Very High

Australia

Very High

Bulgaria

High

Netherlands

Very High

South America

Unknown

Italy

Med (see 3)

Latvia

High

Japan

Low (see 1)

Turkey

High

Ireland

High

Polynesia

Med (see 2)

France

Med (see 3)

Finland

Very High

- -
Austria

High

Greece

High

Russia

Zero (see 4)

Lithuania

High

Croatia

High

China

Zero (see 4)

Notes:
1. Language issues rather than cultural issues
2. Geography will probably cause home sickness.
3. Might seem more like a vacation leading to home sickness.
4. No way in Hell - massive cultural differences.

Obviously the people decide along with the host countries what may be the best fit for each refugee case. In the refugee camps after World War II, Ukrainians were given choices of which country to emigrate to and begin their new lives. Typically it was a wait and see approach that many refugees took. Many held out until the country of their choice was calling for refugees. This process took years. Obviously information about each country was flowing around in the camps.

This is all irrelevant because the Ukrainians are intent on winning this war. This time there will be no conference in Yalta to toss them to the wolves as they would say. They have been clear on their position. They have learned from their painful history.

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Ukrainian Values

As part of the systems analysis to understand the Ukrainian refugee crisis as significant system observation has surfaced and it is associated with Ukrainian culture. We know that unlike Russians, Ukrainians really believe in Democracy, Freedom, and Liberty and they are paying the ultimate price with their lives and the destruction of their cities. Something else is also happening and it is associated with survival versus self-expression values as shown in the The Inglehart - Welzel cultural map of the world.

The Inglehart - Welzel cultural map of the world is a scatter plot based on the World Values Survey and European Values Survey. It shows closely linked cultural values that vary between societies in two dimensions: traditional versus secular-rational values on the vertical y-axis and survival versus self-expression values on the horizontal x-axis. Moving upward on this map reflects the shift from traditional values to secular-rational ones and moving rightward reflects the shift from survival values to self-expression values. The following is the Inglehart-Welzel World Cultural Map for 2020.

[Ref: https://www.worldvaluessurvey.org]

Based on what Ukraine decided to do with the Russian invasion, they have moved from -0.50 to 3.25 on the Survival versus Self-Expression values scale (horizontal x-axis) and this is beyond Sweden. This is significant because something caused this massive shift that was not captured in the surveys for the 2020 results (2017 - 2020 Survey Questions). Either the survey was lacking some key element or there was a massive shift that happened between 2017/2020 and 2022. Since 2014 the world has experienced the the Internet grow into massive social media networks and a shift away from personal computers to very sophisticated multimedia high fidelity smart phones. It is possible that the new smart phones may have inspired Ukrainians to move to higher levels on Maslow Hierarchy of needs where Self Actualization and Transcendence is the level of consciousness thus leading to the massive Self-Expression values.

Maslow's hierarchy of needs was proposed by American Abraham Maslow in his 1943 paper A Theory of Human Motivation in the journal Psychological Review. Maslow extended the idea to include observations of humans' innate curiosity. His theories parallel many other theories of human developmental psychology, some of which focus on describing the stages of growth in humans. He created a classification system which reflected the universal needs of society as its base and then proceeded to acquired emotions. The hierarchy of needs is split between deficiency needs and growth needs. While the theory is usually shown as a pyramid in illustrations, Maslow himself never created a pyramid to represent the hierarchy of needs.

Maslow's hierarchy pyramid is frequently used because it visualizes the needs that one must meet to reach self-actualization. Maslow's hierarchy of needs is used to study how humans partake in behavioral motivation. Maslow used the terms "physiological," "safety," "belonging and love," "social needs" or "esteem," and "self-actualization" to describe the pattern through which human motivations move. In order for motivation to arise at the next stage, each stage must be satisfied within the individual themselves. Each of these individual levels contains a certain amount of internal sensation that must be met in order for an individual to complete their hierarchy. The goal in Maslow's hierarchy is to attain the fifth level or stage: self-actualization.

The stages of human needs are shown and described as follows.

Level

Name Broad Needs Need Elements

5

Self-Actualization Self Fulfillment Needs achieving ones full potential including creative activities

4

Esteem Needs Psychological Needs prestige, feelings of accomplishment

3

Love and Social Belonging Needs Psychological Needs intimate relationships, friends

2

Safety Needs Basic Needs security, safety

1

Physiological Needs Basic Needs water, food, warmth, rest

1. Physiological Needs

Physiological needs are the base of the hierarchy. These needs are the biological component for human survival. According to Maslow's hierarchy of needs, physiological needs are factored in internal motivation. According to Maslow's theory, humans are compelled to satisfy physiological needs first in order to pursue higher levels of intrinsic satisfaction. In order to advance higher-level needs in Maslow's hierarchy, physiological needs must be met first. This means that if a person is struggling to meet their physiological needs, they are unwilling to seek safety, belonging, esteem, and self-actualization on their own. Physiological needs include: Air, Water, Food, Sleep, Clothes, Shelter, Sexual intercourse. These physiological needs must be met in order for the human body to remain in homeostasis.

2. Safety Needs

Once a person's physiological needs are satisfied, their safety needs take precedence and dominate behavior. In the absence of physical safety - due to war, natural disaster, family violence, childhood abuse, etc. and/or in the absence of economic safety - (due to an economic crisis and lack of work opportunities) these safety needs manifest themselves in ways such as a preference for job security, grievance procedures for protecting the individual from unilateral authority, savings accounts, insurance policies, disability accommodations, etc. This level is more likely to predominate in children as they generally have a greater need to feel safe especially children that have disabilities. Adults are also impacted by this, typically in economic matters, adults are not immune to the need of safety. It includes shelter, job security, health, and safe environments. If a person does not feel safe in an environment, they will seek safety before attempting to meet any higher level of survival. This is why the goal of consistently meeting the need for safety is to have stability in one's life, stability brings back the concept of homeostasis for humans, which our bodies need. Safety needs include: Health, Personal security, Emotional security, Financial security.

3. Love and Social Belonging Needs

After physiological and safety needs are fulfilled, the third level of human needs is interpersonal and involves feelings of belongingness. Humans possess an effective need for a sense of belonging and acceptance among social groups, regardless of whether these groups are large or small; being a part of a group is crucial, regardless if it is work, sports, friends or family. The sense of belongingness is being comfortable with and connection to others that results from receiving acceptance, respect, and love. For example, some large social groups may include clubs, co-workers, religious groups, professional organizations, sports teams, gangs, and online communities. Some examples of small social connections include family members, intimate partners, mentors, colleagues, and confidants. Humans need to love and be loved both sexually and non-sexually by others. Many people become susceptible to loneliness, social anxiety, and clinical depression in the absence of this love or belonging element. This need is especially strong in childhood and it can override the need for safety as witnessed in children who cling to abusive parents. Deficiencies due to hospitalism, neglect, shunning, ostracism, etc. can adversely affect the individual's ability to form and maintain emotionally significant relationships in general. Mental health can be a huge factor when it comes to an individual's needs and development. When an individual's needs are not met, it can cause depression during adolescence. When an individual grows up in a higher income family, it is much more likely that they will have a lower rate of depression. This is because all of their basic needs are met. Studies have shown that when a family goes through financial stress for a prolonged amount of time, depression rates are higher, not only because their basic needs are not being met, but because this stress puts a strain on the parent child relationship. The parent(s) is/are stressed about providing for their children, and they are also likely to spend less time at home because they are working more to make more money and provide for their family.

Social belonging needs include: Family, Friendship, Intimacy, Trust, Acceptance,   Receiving and giving love and affection. This need for belonging may overcome the physiological and security needs, depending on the strength of the peer pressure. In contrast, for some individuals, the need for self-esteem is more important than the need for belonging; and for others, the need for creative fulfillment may supersede even the most basic needs.

4. Esteem Needs

Esteem is the respect and admiration of a person, but also self-respect and respect from others. Most people have a need for a stable esteem, meaning which is soundly based on real capacity or achievement. Maslow noted two versions of esteem needs. The lower version of esteem is the need for respect from others, and may include a need for status, recognition, fame, prestige, and attention. The higher version of esteem is the need for self-respect, and can include a need for strength, competence, mastery, self-confidence, independence, and freedom. This higher version takes guidelines, the hierarchies are interrelated rather than sharply separated. This means that esteem and the subsequent levels are not strictly separated; instead, the levels are closely related. Esteem comes from day to day experiences, that provide a learning opportunity which allows us to discover ourselves. This is incredibly important within children, which is why giving them the opportunity to discover they are competent and capable learners. In order to boost this, adults must provide opportunities for children to have successful and positive experiences to give children a greater sense of self. Adults, especially parents and educators must create and ensure an environment for children that is supportive and provides them with opportunities that helps children see themselves as respectable, capable individuals. The need for respect or reputation is most important for children and precedes real self-esteem or dignity, which reflects the two aspects of esteem: for oneself and for others.

5. Self-Actualization

What a person can be must be forms the basis of the perceived need for self-actualization. This level of need refers to the realization of one's full potential. This is the desire to accomplish everything that one can, to become the most that one can be. People may have a strong, particular desire to become an ideal parent, succeed athletically, or create paintings, pictures, or inventions. To understand this level of need, a person must not only succeed in the previous needs but master them. Self-actualization can be described as a value-based system when discussing its role in motivation. Self-actualization is understood as the goal or explicit motive, and the previous stages in Maslow's hierarchy fall in line to become the step-by-step process by which self-actualization is achievable; an explicit motive is the objective of a reward based system that is used to drive completion of certain values or goals. Individuals who are motivated to pursue this goal seek and understand how their needs, relationships, and sense of self are expressed through their behavior. Self-actualization needs include: Partner acquisition, Parenting, Utilizing and developing talents and abilities, Pursuing goals.

Extended Hierarchy of Needs

The original hierarchy of needs was extended and inserted between 4. Esteem Needs and 5. Self-Actualization. The extended stages of human needs are shown and described as follows.

Level

Name Extended Levels Name Categories

8

Transcendence growth needs

5

Self-Actualization

7

Self-Actualization growth needs

6

Aesthetic needs growth needs

5

Cognitive needs growth needs

4

Esteem Needs

4

Esteem Needs deficiency needs

3

Love and Social Belonging Needs

3

Love and Social Belonging Needs deficiency needs

2

Safety Needs

2

Safety Needs deficiency needs

1

Physiological Needs

1

Physiological Needs deficiency needs

5. Cognitive Needs

After esteem needs, cognitive needs come next in the hierarchy of needs. People have cognitive needs such as creativity, foresight, curiosity, and meaning. Individuals who enjoy activities that require deliberation and brainstorming have a greater need for cognition. Individuals who are unmotivated to participate in the activity, on the other hand, have a low demand for cognitive abilities. Cognitive needs crave meaning, information, comprehension and curiosity - this creates a will to learn and attain knowledge. From an educational viewpoint, Maslow wanted humans to have intrinsic motivation to become educated people.

6. Aesthetic Needs

After reaching ones cognitive needs it would progress to aesthetic needs, to beautify ones life. This would consist of having the ability to appreciate the beauty within the world around ones self, on a day to day basis. According to Maslow's theories, in order to progress toward Self-Actualization, humans require beautiful imagery or novel and aesthetically pleasing experiences. Humans must immerse themselves in nature's splendor while paying close attention to and observing their surroundings in order to extract the world's beauty. This higher level need to connect with nature results in an endearing sense of intimacy with nature and all that is endearing. After reaching ones cognitive needs it would progress to aesthetic needs, to beautify oneself. This would consist of improving ones physical appearance to ensure its beauty to balance the rest of the body.

7. Self-Actualization

As described in the original hierarchy of needs based on 5 levels.

8. Transcendence

Maslow later subdivided the triangle's top to include self-transcendence, also known as spiritual needs. Spiritual needs differ from other types of needs in that they can be met on multiple levels. When this need is met, it produces feelings of integrity and raises things to a higher plane of existence. In his later years, Maslow explored a further dimension of motivation, while criticising his original vision of self-actualization. By these later ideas, one finds the fullest realization in giving oneself to something beyond oneself, for example, altruism or spirituality. He equated this with the desire to reach the infinite. Transcendence refers to the very highest and most inclusive or holistic levels of human consciousness, behaving and relating, as ends rather than means, to oneself, to significant others, to human beings in general, to other species, to nature, and to the cosmos.

As a result of the war it is clear that the Ukrainians have been moved to the lowest level of Maslows Hierarchy of needs: 1. Physiological Needs, however in times of war some move to the highest level 8. Transcendence. What is unclear is why there is a disconnect with the Survival versus Self-Expression values scale value and the actual evidence that the value may be the highest in the world at this point in 2022 and what may be happening with Maslows Hierarchy of needs. Is it possible that Survival versus Self-Expression values were actually below -2.5 and so the only alternative the Ukrainians thought they had was to fight? Perhaps when the invasion actually happened that is what actually happened to the overall Ukrainian mass mind, Survival versus Self-Expression values dropped below -2.5 and the Hierarchy of needs dropped to: 1. Physiological Needs, survival mode. Alternatively something else is happening that will shape Ukrainian culture for generations.

[Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inglehart–Welzel_cultural_map_of_the_world]

[Ref: https://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/wvs.jsp]

[Ref: https://www.worldvaluessurvey.org/WVSDocumentationWV7.jsp]

[Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maslow%27s_hierarchy_of_needs]

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Ukrainian Food Production

Ukraine supports approximately 400 million people around the world with its food products. Suggestions are that production in Ukraine will be decreased by 40% to 45% in 2022 because of the war and the scarcity of supplies that go into the planting season like fuel diverted to the war effort. This suggests famine and moving food supplies from the hungry to feed the starving. The loss of Ukrainian food production from a systems perspective is:

Because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there is a loss of food production equal to 200 million people

It is unclear what the Russian intentions might be if they should capture the port city Odessa. Will they prevent the export of any food that feeds hundreds of millions of people world wide?

US Senator Cory Booker has warned that we could soon see tens of millions of people dying of starvation. The senator stated that Democrats and Republicans in Congress need to quickly come together and approve emergency global food aid in order to prevent tens of millions of people, including millions of children, from dying of starvation. President Biden admitted that food shortages are going to be real. The World Food Program estimates that 285 million people face starvation. The one thing that could provide a ray of hope would be an end to the war in Ukraine but that is unlikely.

Somalia is warning that an impending famine similar to what occurred in 2010/2011 where more than a quarter of a million people died - including 133,000 children under the age of five. Although some donors have committed to fund Somalia’s Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) that seeks US $1.5 billion but that is less than 4% of funding required to meet Somalia’s needs. Like the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), which impacted many of Somali households, the Ukrainian crisis has driven inflation and rising costs in Somalia, particularly for food and energy, at a time when families are already incredibly desperate.

Ukraine is one of the world’s largest exporters of wheat and sunflower oil. Many countries in the developing world, including Lebanon and Bangladesh, rely on its wheat for staple foods, including bread.

In the Horn of Africa 13 million people are already suffering from hunger. Because of the war in Ukraine, the United Nations World Food Program has cut food rations by 50% in Yemen, Niger and, Chad. The World Food Program is warning that 285 million people face starvation.

The Russian invasion is having a direct impact on Ukrainian capacity to produce food for their own population. Ukrainian farmers face severe challenges to harvest this year’s crops because farmers and many farm workers are fighting the Russians. Also Ukraine’s military has commandeered stores of fuel for farm machinery, such as combine harvesters. Canada, a major donor through the World Food Program, is funnelling food aid to Ukraine. Canadian farmers could face shortages of fertilizer, which it usually buys from Russia. This could affect this year’s harvest, although Canadian farmers are trying to find alternatives.

Russian forces are targeting the Ukrainian food supply and infrastructure needed to gather and distribute the harvest. This includes: Silos and grain elevators, Food storage facilities and warehouses, Ukrainian stores of grain, Ports for export to the world. For example, on March 19, 2022, Russian forces destroyed one of the largest food storage facilities in the country. It had more than 50,000 tons of food. To place into perspective this destruction, 1 ton of food will feed 50 people for 1 month. This destruction denied food to 2.5 million people for 30 days. If people do not eat for 30 days they will not recover. From a systems perspective they just murdered 2.5 million people with that one war crime. The world wide food distribution system will compensate but not fully, someone will die someplace because of a lack of this food destroyed by the Russians.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine will result in the deaths of:

History is being written. This time the extreme brutality of the Russians will not be whitewashed as it was in the previous century.

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Russian Propaganda

Journalism is based on the following 6 key questions: Who? What? Where? When? Why? And How? These questions must be asked from multiple credible independent sources that are in the middle of the area being investigated and reported and they must match. Any work that does not reflect these basic requirements falls into the category of opinion and hearsay. Journalism follows the scientific method of repeatable results from multiple independent sources.

Propaganda techniques fall into two broad categories: (1) 98% is true but 2% is a lie and the lie completely changes the finding and (2) 100% is a lie but the lie is so huge no one will ever think it is a lie. The second category is based on the following: If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.

The disinformation techniques for propaganda used by toxic management are the same techniques used by toxic political leaders: Deny, Distract, Delay, Lie, Bullshit.

The tools of propaganda are all sources of information. Propaganda pumps out massive information on all information sources 24/7 non stop. Some think that propaganda needs to be consistent or the story will break down in the mass mind but that is incorrect. It does not matter if the information is inconsistent, what matters is the message, and is the message affecting the mass mind.

Propaganda is devoid of all good values. It digs deep into the complete failings of humanity and just pushes the agenda regardless of outcomes. It is an immoral activity performed by immoral people led by immoral evil leaders. It is that simple.

How can people detect propaganda? Its simple, step back and:

  1. View the situation from a systems perspective
  2. Does it make sense
  3. Are the claims absurd
  4. Are the people experiencing hardship from other countries
  5. Are the majority of countries on your side
  6. Are people being arrested
  7. Have news organizations been shutdown
  8. Are you the cause of death and destruction

Russian Propaganda Outlets

American distributors and European governments have banned Russia Today (RT) after Russia’s attack on Ukraine, leading to the collapse of RT’s American operations (March 3, 2022). However as of April 16, 2022 there are radio stations offering Sputnik content to listeners and the story was released on March 7, 2022. Nothing has been done to stop the broadcasting of the Russian propaganda via Sputnik. For example, the Sputnik propaganda is broadcast and every hour by WZHF-AM on 1390 AM in Washington DC airs the following disclaimer:

“This radio programming is distributed by RM Broadcasting on behalf of the Federal State Unitary Enterprise Rossiya Segodnya International Information Agency, Moscow, Russia. Additional information is available at the Department of Justice, Washington, D.C.”

The radio station is 11 miles from the White House and is the flagship of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s effort to use American radio airwaves to provide Russian propaganda. Despite legal and political challenges, and the imposition of sanctions against Russia for the invasion of Ukraine, the station has stayed on the air, broadcasting its Kremlin developed messages.

The radio station is one of five outlets in the United States that air English language broadcasts of Radio Sputnik, produced in Moscow and Washington under the Russian government’s supervision. Sputnik is the radio and digital arm of Rossiya Segodnya (Russia Today), the same Kremlin-controlled media agency that directs RT and RT America, the TV and digital media operations founded by Putin’s regime in 2005.

The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) requested station owners to stop carrying Russian state sponsored programming. The NAB provided the statement: While the First Amendment protects freedom of speech it does not prevent private actors from exercising sound, moral judgment.

In 2017, three Democratic members of Congress sought an investigation into why WZHF was still on the air despite evidence that Russia interfered in the 2016 presidential election. The chairman of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) at the time, Ajit Pai, declined to take action, saying the First Amendment would bar the FCC from interfering with a broadcast licensee’s choice of programming, even if that programming may be objectionable to many listeners.

Sputnik does not own WZHF or any other radion stations because federal regulations bar foreign governments from controlling US broadcast licenses. The decades old prohibition is based on concerns that hostile foreign powers would use American radio and TV stations to broadcast propaganda. Since 2001, WZHF is licensed to a New York company, Way Broadcasting. But Way Broadcasting appears to be a largely passive owner. In 2017, it agreed to lease the station’s airtime to a second party, RM Broadcasting of Jupiter, Fla. RM sold all of the station’s airtime to Rossiya Segodnya and Sputnik. RM made a similar deal in 2020 with Alpine Broadcasting to place Sputnik’s programs on Alpine’s three stations in the Kansas City area.

According to federal filings, RM paid Way Broadcasting $1.12 million last year to air Radio Sputnik full time and Alpine Broadcasting about $160,000 to carry Sputnik for six hours a day on its Kansas City stations. It is unclear why the sanctions against Russia have had no affect on stopping this money flow.

The practice, known as a time brokerage agreement, is claimed to be a financial lifeline for small and financially troubled broadcast outlets since the 1930s. Instead of hiring a sales staff and producing programs, station owners merely lease blocks of airtime to another party, often through a broker, which puts its own programs on the air. The best known form of such agreements are TV infomercials.

Systems Perspective: The problem is that this translates into defacto ownership of these radio stations, which could not exist without the Russian funding. This is an artifact of the broad trends associated with deregulation in the US that began in the 1980's. The FCC is not properly regulating and enforcing existing regulations but only politically responding to strong special interest groups. We now have a serious problem in the US and a major arm of the US government has been compromised. It is clear that these radio stations are controlled and owned by a foreign government. The licenses should be pulled by the FCC and the matter handled by the courts. The FCC should not be second guessing what the courts might decide. They must error on the side of protecting the people from significant harm in a time of full scale war that threatens the US. It is also unclear why the US sanctions have not stopped the Russian funding of these radio stations.

RM’s owner, Arnold Ferolito, defends Sputnik saying efforts to remove it from the air are an attack on free speech. He wrote in an email: RM Broadcasting stands with Ukraine and victims of oppression and aggression worldwide. One of the fundamental rights that Ukraine is fighting for is freedom of speech and freedom from censorship, and RM is dedicated to the unfettered exchange of information and ideas.

Systems Perspective: This is a classic propaganda tactic, hide the propaganda in an accepted truth.

He noted that the stations disclose Rossiya Segodnya’s role as the source of the broadcasts throughout the day so that people may make an informed decision on whether to listen or turn the dial. Ferolito said other American station owners wanted to carry the service, too, but Sputnik’s parent organization did not have the budget for wider US reach.

Systems Perspective: This is a classic propaganda tactic, hide the propaganda in an accepted truth.

Under a separate lease agreement, WZHF’s content is carried on FM radio in the Washington area by a company called Reston Translator. John Garziglia, the company’s principal owner, claims: I’m a fervent believer in the First Amendment, Under the First Amendment, we should be seeking more information, not less.

Systems Perspective: This is a classic propaganda tactic, hide the propaganda in an accepted truth.

Way Broadcasting out of New York provided no comment.

RM is required to file federal disclosures about Rossiya Segodnya’s payments as a result of a legal battle between the company and the Justice Department. The agency determined in early 2018 that RM’s involvement with the Russian media group required it to register under the Foreign Agents Registration Act. Ferolito sued to block the designation, arguing that RM was merely acting as a middleman and had no control over Sputnik’s programs, but a federal judge in Florida ruled against the company in 2019. As a result WZHF’s hourly disclaimer is broadcast.

What is the FCC's Responsibility

[Ref: https://www.fcc.gov/consumers/guides/fcc-and-freedom-speech]

The FCC is barred by law from trying to prevent the broadcast of any point of view. The Communications Act prohibits the FCC from censoring broadcast material, in most cases, and from making any regulation that would interfere with freedom of speech. Expressions of views that do not involve a "clear and present danger of serious, substantive evil" come under the protection of the Constitution, which guarantees freedom of speech and freedom of the press and prevents suppression of these expressions by the FCC. According to an FCC opinion on this subject, "the public interest is best served by permitting free expression of views." This principle ensures that the most diverse and opposing opinions will be expressed, even though some may be highly offensive.

The FCC, however, does have enforcement responsibilities in certain limited instances. For example, the Courts have said that indecent material is protected by the First Amendment to the Constitution and cannot be banned entirely. It may be restricted, however, in order to avoid its broadcast when there is a reasonable risk that children may be in the audience. Between 6 A.M. and 10 P.M. (when there is the greatest likelihood that children may be watching,) airing indecent material is prohibited by FCC rules. Broadcasters are required to schedule their programming accordingly or face enforcement action. Similarly, the Commission has stated that profane material is prohibited between 6 A.M. and 10 P.M.

Systems Perspective: This is not a free speech issue. This is an ownership issue where a foreign government has taken control of US radio stations because of funds propping up the radio stations. The problem is that this translates into defacto ownership of these radio stations, which could not exist without the Russian funding. This is an artifact of the broad trends associated with deregulation in the US that began in the 1980's. The FCC is not properly regulating and enforcing existing regulations but only politically responding to strong special interest groups. We now have a serious problem in the US and a major arm of the US government has been compromised. It is clear that these radio stations are controlled and owned by a foreign government. The licenses should be pulled by the FCC and the matter handled by the courts. The FCC should not be second guessing what the courts might decide. They must error on the side of protecting the people from significant harm in a time of full scale war that threatens the US. It is also unclear why the US sanctions have not stopped the Russian funding of these radio stations.

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Peace

As the war has unfolded, as of April 9, 2022 with the massive attacks on civilians and infrastructure and the clean war crimes committed and documented by journalists from around the world it is difficult to see a negotiated peace moving forward.

.

Systems Analysis Potential Russian Peace Demands

These are potential Russian peace demands: [spreadsheet]

Peace Treaty Terms

Ukraine
Acceptance

Russian
Acceptance

1. Crimea stays with Russia

0

1

2. Donbas stays with Russia

0

1

3. Ukraine agrees to never join NATO

0

1

4. Russian Prime Minister is appointed, and President Zelensky can stay

0

1

.

.

.

Acceptance Probability

0

1

Putin has characterized Ukraine as an illegitimate country that was essentially created by the Soviet authorities. Putin claims that Ukrainians and Russians are one people, and that Ukrainians are really Russians who do not deserve a state of their own. He argues, Ukraine’s entire centuries long independence struggle is a foreign plot driven by scheming Western imperialists seeking to undermine Mother Russia. In summer 2021, Putin provided a Ukrainian history in an essay that dismissed the entire notion of Ukrainian statehood.

Putin dreams of a revived Czarist Empire and blames the early Soviet authorities for handing over ancestral Russian lands to Ukraine and other Soviet republics. Putin referred to the fall of the USSR as the demise of historical Russia. He describes the Soviet collapse as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the twentieth century” and it is actually a lament for lost Russian greatness. “As for the Russian people, it became a genuine tragedy,” he explained. “Tens of millions of our fellow citizens and countrymen found themselves beyond the fringes of Russian territory.”

Putin is attempting to extinguish Ukrainian statehood and eradicate all traces of a separate Ukrainian identity but Russia is at war with an entire nation of over 40 million people. The Czarist Empire collapsed because it was an empire that fed off colonies that were made up of independent people with their own identities and cultures. They were brutally enslaved by the Soviets after World War II, but when the Soviet empire collapsed all those countries regained their independent statehood status.

.

Potential Ukrainian Peace Demands

This does not represent any official peace offers. It is provided as part of a systems analysis to see how a peace deal might surface.

These are possible Ukrainian peace demands: [spreadsheet]

Peace Treaty Terms

Ukraine
Acceptance

Russian
Acceptance

Addresses Russian Terms

1. All Russian military activity stops immediately

1

0.5

2. Russia withdraws all military and other assets to 200 miles into the original Russian territory boundaries (not the occupied Donbas territory) in 14 days

1

0.5

3. Crimea stays with Ukraine but allows Russia to maintain its military base as part of a 100-year lease arrangement

0.9

0.5

Crimea stays with Russia
4. Ukraine provides Russia full port access to all its seaports in perpetuity

0.5

0.5

Crimea stays with Russia
5. Donbas stays with Ukraine but allows the UN to monitor human rights abuses, especially to Russian people in Donbas, Crimea, and throughout Ukraine

1

0.5

Donbas stays with Russia, Crimea stays with Russia
6. Ukraine immediately joins NATO but agrees to not have NATO military offensive weapon systems or NATO military troops

1

0.5

Ukraine agrees to never join NATO
7. NATO agrees to not invade Russia, but only defend NATO territory, including the new NATO country of Ukraine

1

0.5

Ukraine agrees to never join NATO
8. Ukraine is permitted to participate in the EU, Russian, and any other economic spheres as they see fit

1

0.5

Russian Prime Minister is appointed, and President Zelensky can stay
9. Ukraine works with Russia to bring Russia back into the family of peaceful countries including re-establishing economic ties destroyed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine

1

1

Russian Prime Minister is appointed, and President Zelensky can stay
10. Russia agrees to help Ukraine rebuild its cities by sending Russian volunteers to help

1

0.8

11. Ukraine will not ask for war reparations

0.5

1

Russian Prime Minister is appointed, and President Zelensky can stay
12. The West and NATO will not ask for war reparations

0.5

1

Russian Prime Minister is appointed, and President Zelensky can stay
13. Ukraine wants to live, work, and play with its Russian neighbors

1

1

14. Ukraine does not want Russia to fear Ukraine or any other country in the world

1

1

15. Ukraine wants peace for Ukraine and Russia

1

1

Russian Prime Minister is appointed, and President Zelensky can stay
16. Ukraine wants Russia to accept and respect that it is an independent Democracy

1

0

17. Ukraine wants Russia to allow Russian citizens to stay in Ukraine and treat them as full Russian citizens living abroad

1

1

Donbas stays with Russia, Crimea stays with Russia
.

.

.

Acceptance Probability

0.91

0.67

This is an alternative view of achieving peace from another analyst:

I saw the 17-points. I’m not at all hopeful with Putin. He is not trustworthy.

Here’s my problem.

Russia needs to remove Putin. Nothing good will happen with him in power. Putin is a scary war criminal and can’t be trusted. The man is malicious and completely dishonorable.

Think of it; cyber meddling, cyber extortion, election meddling, murdering opponents, a crushed press core, murdered reporters, divisive social media campaigns, four invasions (one massive), intentionally bombing civilians and then nuclear threats! I don’t think allowing any Russians inside Ukraine is a good idea except on a case by case basis. If I were in Ukraine, I’d detest Russians; no matter how misguided or misinformed they were. The Russians would carry a risk of being subversive - negative agents; after all, all the news they get is state media! Indeed if the UN had any cojones, they should be responsible to guard all of the Ukrainian borders.

For example, my sense is that Donbas and probably Crimea were probably OK bring within Ukraine. The “Russian speaking” residents wanting to be associated with Russia was likely a ruse, in my mind. Otherwise what were all those little green unmarked Russian soldiers doing there?

As I said, Putin’s removal from power might be a start.

--- Other Analyst

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War Costs and Reparations

Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia not only killed military personnel but targeted and destroyed massive infrastructure in Ukraine. Eventually the Russian War against Ukraine will end and after the war there will be massive costs associated with lost lives and rebuilding infrastructure. If Russia loses the war, they will be responsible for War Reparations, unless as part of some negotiated peace agreement the costs will be shared by the world. The following are some preliminary costs of the Russian War against Ukraine.

[spreadsheet Reparations]

Cost Items

People Homes Homes Destroyed Cost Total Cost Comments

Mariupol

350,000 116,667 315,000 $100,000 $31,500,000,000 90% of the structures destroyed 3 people per home

Homeless

10,000,000 3,333,333 3,000,000 $100,000 $300,000,000,000 90% of homeless lost their homes 3 people per home

Refugees

3,500,000 $200,000 $700,000,000,000 25% goes to host countries to pay for costs

Ukrainian Deaths

50,000 $2,000,000 $100,000,000,000 There are no numbers at this time. In Syria 24,743 civilians were allegedly killed by Russian strikes, according to the civilian harm monitor Airwars. Estimates of the total number of deaths in the Syrian Civil War, by opposition activist groups, vary between 499,657 and about 610,000 as of March 2022.

Ukrainian Injuries

100,000 $500,000 $50,000,000,000 There are no numbers at this time.

Ukrainian PTSD

30,000,000 $25,000 $750,000,000,000 It is reasonable to assume that most the Ukranians will be suffering from PTSD for most of their lives. There will also be impacts on the next generation.

.

Total Costs (March 22, 2022)

$1,931,500,000,000 Bill needs to be sent immediately to Russia.

The costs of war are beyond any numbers. It will be borne by generations of the people that were attacked. Regardless, after the war rebuilding will need to happen.

The costs as of March 22, 2022 are $2 Trillion dollars. Russia caused this massive destruction. It is unclear if they will be forced to pay for War Reparations. Even if Ukraine falls to the Russia, Russia will still need to pay to rebuild the infrastructure it destroyed and for the harm done to the people who will never be the same again. This will devestate Russia for a generation, so it is unclear how the world will proceed to distribute the costs. The military weapons that Russia unleashed is across a massive population and infrastructure unlike their previous invasions. It is obvious they did not think about the costs of the destruction even if they won the war. Someone needs to eventually rebuild.

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Military Defense Systems

Military systems are characterized in terms of their capabilities and their site characteristics. The site characteristics are as follows:

  1. Fixed site: This is a fixed location that cannot be moved. The system is in a hardened facility that may be above ground, below ground, or both.
  2. Transportable: These systems can be transported and quickly setup at the location needing the capability. The system may be located in transportable hardened shelters or tents. Think in terms of a few hours to setup and take-down. They are typically relatively far from the enemy lines.
  3. Mobile: These systems are very mobile and can be quickly setup and taken down to quickly move away from harm. They may be mounted on a military vehicle, military truck, or towed by a military vehicle. They are typically used for beyond line of site operations.
  4. Man-Portable: These systems offer the greatest level of mobility. They are used for line of site operations and that is their disadvantage. They are a form of last resort defense. Ideally these systems would never be used if the other defense systems were in place and providing the proper defense.

The capabilities for the defense systems are grouped as follows.

  1. Line of Site Close in Defense Systems
  2. Long Range Defense Systems 
  3. Counter Battery Weapon Tracking Radar (COBRA) 
  4. Counter Rocket Artillery and Mortar (C-RAM) 
  5. Air Defense Background

The systems and technologies exist to have stopped Russia before penetrating the country of Ukraine. It has been withheld. Incrementalism and defeatism is the reason why the West has not provided the needed weapons systems to Ukraine. These are some key points from Alexander Vindman Former Director for European Affairs for the United States National Security Council, President Volodymyr Zelensky, and others with similar views:

Russians are using bombers and ballistic missiles. To counter the Russian weapons, Ukraine needs appropriate weapons: UAVs - Predators and Reapers with air to air and air to ground missiles, Loiter munitions that stay up there and hunt for targets, Long range anti tank munitions, Coastal defense missiles. The US response is becoming bureaucratic and paternalistic. The - No they can't handle it mentality is misplaced. Ukraine only needs a crash course on setting up and running systems, maintenance will come later because this will be months. There is decision paralysis, defeatism, why risk is still some residue - why risk wider involvement. The policy of incrementalism is a slow death and it will get the US involved in a wider war later on, it is a disaster.

Fear of Russian aggression towards the West is totally misplaced. Russia can't get into a wider war because they are bogged down in Ukraine. Russia unlikely to do full mobilization. They cannot win a war against NATO because NATO is massive against Russia and they know it. Russian commanders don't want their families to die via nuclear war because of MAD. Putin has been enabled because there have been no consequences, this needs to stop, it is the only way for real negotiations to begin.

The longer this goes on the higher the risk the US gets involved. Give the Ukrainians equipment to establish their own no fly zone. A No Fly Zone eventually will be established if the world sees 10s of thousands of civilian casualties. Ukrainians should be provided the weapons they need to establish their own No Fly Zone. Even if it is not as good as what could be established. It is better than nothing, which is what they have now - nothing.

There is a need to re-establish cold war communications systems to let the Russian people know what is happening in Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky received a standing ovation after he quoted Winston Churchill and William Shakespeare in a speech to the United Kingdom's House of Commons. We will not give up and we will not lose. We will fight until the end at sea, in the air. We will continue fighting for our land, whatever the cost. To be or not to be, adding, Thirteen days ago this question could have been asked about Ukraine, but now, absolutely not. It is obvious, we will be. It is obvious, we will be free.

Ukraine does have military equipment but it is a question of numbers and performance capabilities. The Ukrainian equipment list is published on the Internet and is subdivided into: infantry weapons, vehicles, aircraft, watercraft, and clothing. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Ukrainian_Ground_Forces.

The following is a list of available systems that could be used to defend Ukraine. It is unclear if additional systems have been provided to Ukraine but are not disclosed to prevent the Russians from targeting the systems.

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Line of Site Close in Defense Systems

These systems are used close to the attacking forces. They are basically in the line of site and thus vulnerable to the attacking forces.

Javelin

Javlen

Media confirms provided to Ukraine.

The FGM-148 Javelin (AAWS-M) is an American-made portable anti-tank missile system in service since 1996, and continuously upgraded. Its infrared guidance allows the user to seek cover immediately after launch, as opposed to wire-guided systems, which require the user to guide the weapon throughout the engagement. The Javelin's HEAT warhead is capable of defeating modern tanks by hitting them from above where their armor is thinnest, and is also useful against fortifications in a direct attack flight. It can reach a peak altitude of 150 m (490 ft) in top-attack mode and 60 m (200 ft) in direct-fire mode. Initial versions had a range of 2,000 m (6,600 ft), later increased to 2,500 m (8,200 ft). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FGM-148_Javelin.

Stinger

Stinger

Media confirms provided to Ukraine.

The FIM-92 Stinger is a man-portable air-defense system (MANPADS) that operates as an infrared homing surface-to-air missile (SAM). It can be adapted to fire from a wide variety of ground vehicles and helicopters (Air to Air Stinger). Developed in the United States, it entered service in 1981 and is used by the militaries of the United States and 29 other countries. The FIM-92 Stinger is a passive surface-to-air missile that can be shoulder-fired by a single operator (although standard military procedure calls for two operators, team chief and gunner). The Stinger was intended to supplant the FIM-43 Redeye MANPAD system, the principal difference being that, unlike the Redeye, the Stinger can acquire the target when the target approaches the operator, giving much more time to acquire and destroy the target. The FIM-92B missile can also be fired from the M-1097 Avenger and the M6 Linebacker. The missile is also capable of being deployed from a Humvee Stinger rack, and can be used by airborne troops. A helicopter launched version exists called Air-to-Air Stinger (ATAS). The missile is 5.0 ft (1.52 m) long and 2.8 in (70 mm) in diameter with 3.9 in (100 mm) fins. The missile itself weighs 22 lb (10.1 kg), while the missile with its launch tube and integral site, fitted with a gripstock and Identification friend or foe (IFF) antenna, weighs approximately 34 lb (15.2 kg). It has a targeting range of up to 4,800 m and can engage low altitude enemy threats at up to 3,800 m. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIM-92_Stinger.

Stinger
Avenger Air Defense System, designated AN/TWQ-1

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Long Range Defense Systems

These system are beyond line of site and allow the defense to be less exposed to attack.

Turkish-made TB2 drones

Media confirms provided to Ukraine.

The Turkish-made TB2 drones carry lightweight, laser-guided bombs. The drones are flown at a low level, allowing Ukrainian forces to strike Russian targets. Cost is under $2m (£1.5m) each. The Bayraktar TB2 is a medium-altitude long-endurance (MALE) unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) capable of remotely controlled or autonomous flight operations. It is manufactured by the Turkish company Baykar Defence, primarily for the Turkish Armed Forces. The aircraft are monitored and controlled by an aircrew in a ground control station, including weapons employment. The development of the UAV has been largely credited to Selçuk Bayraktar, a former MIT graduate student. While the Turkish Armed Forces describes Bayraktar TB2 as "Tactical UAV Class" to prevent it from being a competitor to the TAI Anka UAV, international standards would classify it as a medium-altitude long-endurance UAV. As of 26 November 2021, the TB2 drone had completed 400,000 flight-hours globally. The largest operator of TB2 drones is the Turkish military but an export model has been sold to the militaries of a number of other countries.

As a part of its military modernization program the Armed Forces of Ukraine purchased 12 Bayraktar TB2s in 2019. After successful testing of the aircraft, the Ukrainian Navy made a separate order for 6 Bayraktar TB2s, delivered in 2021, according to navy officials. Meanwhile, Turkish and Ukrainian officials announced the establishment of a joint venture to produce 48 additional Bayraktar TB2s in Ukraine. The first batch of the Bayraktar TB2 complex was delivered to the Navy in July 2021.

During a Russian military buildup in Crimea and near Ukraine's borders, a Bayraktar TB2 conducted a reconnaissance flight over the Donbas region on 9 April 2021. This was the first operation of the aircraft by Ukrainian Forces within an active conflict zone. In October 2021, a Bayraktar TB2 drone was used for the first time in combat during the war, targeting a Russian separatist artillery position, destroying a D-30 howitzer, and halting the bombardment of Ukrainian troops near Hranitne.

During the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, Bayraktar TB2 drones have been used by Ukrainian armed forces against Russian forces and equipment. In January prior to the invasion, the spokesperson for the air force confirmed that Ukraine has approximately 20 Bayraktar drones. On 2 March, Ukrainian defense minister announced the arrival of additional TB2 drones. On 24 February, the day of invasion, the People's Militia of the Luhansk People’s Republic claimed it shot down two TB2 drones near the city of Luhansk. On 27 February, the Ukrainian air force confirmed two strikes by TB2 on Russian convoys in the Kherson and Zhytomyr regions. According to video footages of different occasions released by the armed forces, TB2 drones successfully destroyed a Russian command post, military vehicles including a tank; different types of trucks, surface-to-air missile systems including Buk, multiple rocket launcher (MLRS), and a electronic warfare system. The drone also reportedly destroyed two Russian fuel trains. The chief of Ukraine’s air force called the UAV system life-giving. The popularity of the drone in Ukraine led to a song, "Bayraktar" being written about the drone while throwing insults at the Russian army and the invasion. On 17 March 2022, a Bayraktar TB2 was shot down over Kyiv, Russian MOD published images of the drone wreckage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baykar_Bayraktar_TB2

Switchblade

Switchblade

Media confirms provided to Ukraine.

The AeroVironment Switchblade is a miniature-sized loitering munition drone developed by AeroVironment. It is designed as a kamikaze drone, being able to crash into its target with an explosive warhead to destroy it. The Switchblade is small enough to be carried in a backpack and can be launched from a variety of ground, maritime, and air platforms. Two variants exist, the Switchblade 300 and the Switchblade 600.  The larger Switchblade 600 loitering munition weighs 50 lb (23 kg) but is man-portable and can be set up in 10 minutes. It is designed to fly out to 40 km (25 mi) in 20 minutes, then loiter for another 20 minutes (giving it an 80 km (50 mi) total range) and attack at a 115 mph (185 km/h) dash speed, carrying an anti-armor warhead designed to neutralize armored vehicles. A touchscreen tablet-based fire control system can manually or autonomously control the munition, and it is secured through onboard encrypted data links and Selective Availability Anti-Spoofing Module GPS. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AeroVironment_Switchblade.

Phoenix Ghost UAS Phoenix Ghost UAS

Media confirms provided to Ukraine.

The Phoenix Ghost is a tactical unmanned aerial system. It was developed by the Air Force for a set of requirements that very closely match what the Ukrainians need right now in Donbas. The drones, which behave as loitering missiles have capabilities similar to Switchblade drones that the US has already delivered to Ukraine. It requires minimal training. The Phoenix Ghost is capable of engaging medium armored ground targets, can take off vertically, and can fly for more than six hours, including at night. The Switchblade 300 can loiter for about an hour, while the Switchblade 600, which requires a team to launch and operate, is closer in specifications to the Phoenix Ghost, though neither use helicopter like vertical takeoffs like the Phoenix. A US department of defence official described the Phoenix as a one-way kamikaze drone that delivers a punch.

AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder

Delivery to Ukraine in 2015

Firefinder

Media confirms AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder provided to Ukraine.

Hughes AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder weapon locating system is a mobile radar system developed in the mid-late 1970s by Hughes Aircraft Company and manufactured by Northrop Grumman and Thales Raytheon Systems, achieving initial operational capability in May, 1982. The system is a weapon-locating radar, designed to detect and track incoming mortar, artillery and rocket fire to determine the point of origin for counter-battery fire. It is currently in service at battalion and higher levels in the United States Army, United States Marine Corps and Australian Army. Also Turkish Army, Portugal and Ukrainian Army are among the users. The radar is typically trailer-mounted and towed by a Humvee. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/TPQ-36_Firefinder_radar.

Hughes Aircraft developed the AN/TPQ-36 Sentinel radar at its Fullerton, California Hughes Aircraft Ground Systems Group.

The Hughes AN/TPQ-37 Firefinder Weapon Locating System is a mobile radar system developed in the late 1970s by Hughes Aircraft Company, achieving Initial Operational Capability in 1980 and full deployment in 1984. Currently manufactured by Thales Raytheon Systems, the system is a long-range version of “weapon-locating radar,” designed to detect and track incoming artillery and rocket fire to determine the point of origin for counter-battery fire. It is currently in service at brigade and higher levels in the United States Army and by other countries. The radar is trailer-mounted and towed by a 2-ton truck. A typical AN/TPQ-37 system consists of the Antenna-Transceiver Group, Command Shelter and 60 kW Generator. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/TPQ-37_Firefinder_radar.

Thales is what was Hughes Aircraft Systems International (HASI). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hughes_Aircraft_Company.

Hughes Aircraft developed the AN/TPQ-37 Sentinel radar at its Fullerton, California Hughes Aircraft Ground Systems Group.

AN/TPQ-37 Firefinder

AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel

AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel

Media confirms AN/MPQ-64 Firefinder provided to Ukraine.

The AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel is a 3D radar used to alert and cue Short Range Air Defense (SHORAD) weapons to the locations of hostile targets approaching their front line forces. The Sentinel radar is deployed with forward area air defense units of the U.S. Army. The antenna uses phase-frequency electronic scanning technology, forming sharp 3D pencil beams covering large surveillance and track volume. The radar automatically acquires, tracks, classifies, identifies and reports targets, including cruise missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, and rotary and fixed wing aircraft. It uses a high scan rate (30 RPM) and operates at an effective range of 40 km (25 mi). The radar is designed with high resistance to electronic countermeasures (ECM). Mounted on a towed platform, it can be positioned remotely from the rest of the unit, operated autonomously and communicate with the Fire Direction Center (FDC) via wideband fiber-optic link. It can also distribute its data over a SINCGARS radio network. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/MPQ-64_Sentinel.

Hughes Aircraft developed the AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel radar at its Fullerton, California Hughes Aircraft Ground Systems Group.

NASAMS

Media confirms NASAMS provided to Ukraine.

NASAMS (Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, also known as the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System) is the current generation of the I-HAWK missiles used in the integrated air defense systems developed by Hughes Aircraft in the last century. It is a distributed and networked short to medium range ground based air defense system currently developed by Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace (KDA) and Raytheon (previously Hughes Aircraft). The system defends against unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), helicopters, cruise missiles, unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), and crewed fixed wing aircraft.

The integrated air defense battle management command and control system, based on KS500F computers and the KMC9000 control console with two color CRT displays, was first developed for the Norwegian Advanced Hawk (NOAH) program, an upgrade to the MIM-23B Improved Hawk semi-active radar head, surface-to-air missile system. The command and control system integrates existing AN/MPQ-46 High Power Illuminator Doppler Radar (HPIR) with AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar (Hughes Firefinder), modified into three-dimensional low-attitude airspace surveillance radar with the TPQ-36A software upgrade.

The upgraded NOAH would still engage only one target per launcher pad, which was insufficient to counter the emerging threat of massive firing of cruise missiles. Thus RNoAF ordered further development of a distributed, network-centric air defence system with multiple launchers and radars. The MIM-23B missile was replaced with the active radar homing AIM-120 AMRAAM missile, which also uses an inertial navigation system during initial approach, and the TPQ-36A radar was upgraded to the rotating AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel (Hughes) configuration. Test launches were performed in June 1993. The system had an initial operational capability in late 1994 early 1995, and was fully operationally fielded in 1998.

An enhanced NASAMS 2 was developed in the 2000s and became operational in 2006, while a third generation, NASAMS 3, was developed in the 2010s and fielded in 2019.

NASAMS was the first application of a surface-launched AIM-120 AMRAAM (Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile). NASAMS 2 is an upgraded version of the system capable of using Link 16, which has been operational since 2007. As of 2022 NASAMS 3 is the latest upgrade; deployed in 2019, it adds capability to fire AIM-9 Sidewinder and IRIS-T SLS short-range missiles and AMRAAM-ER extended-range missiles, and introduces mobile air-liftable launchers.

The United States government announced the purchase of 2 NASAMS systems for Ukraine in July 2022, to defend against cruise missiles and aircraft. This procurement would take several months to finalize and will require extensive training for Ukrainian users. Subsequently, in August 2022 the US announced it would buy an additional 6 NASAMS units as part of nearly $3B in military aid to provide additional priority capabilities to Ukraine in the mid and long term. According to a Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson, Ukrainian forces began systems training as of 6 October 2022.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NASAMS. Hughes Aircraft developed the automated integrated air defense system in the last century in Fullerton, California Hughes Aircraft Ground Systems Group.

NASAMS launcher 1998 to present

MIM-23 Hawk August 1960 to present

R-360 Neptune

R-360 Neptune

Media confirms R-360 Neptune Ukrainian system.

Neptune is a Ukrainian anti-ship cruise missile developed by the Luch Design Bureau. Neptune's design is based on the Soviet Kh-35 anti-ship missile, with substantially improved range and electronics.[2] The system is designed to defeat surface warships and transport vessels with a displacement of up to 5,000 tons, either in convoys or moving individually. The system entered service with the Ukrainian Navy in March 2021. When deployed, a Neptune coastal defence system consists of a USPU-360 truck based mobile launcher, four missiles, a TZM-360 transport reload vehicle, a RCP-360 command and control vehicle, and a special cargo vehicle. The system is designed to operate up to 25 kilometres (16 mi) inland of the coastline. A Neptune missile including rocket motor is 5.05 metres (16 ft 7 in) in length, with a cross shaped hard wing. Neptune missiles are designed to be housed in transport and launch containers (TLC) with dimensions 5.30 by 0.60 by 0.60 metres (209 in × 24 in × 24 in). The system has a maximum range of about 300 kilometres (190 mi). A single missile weighs 870 kilograms (1,920 lb), of which 150 kilograms (330 lb) is the warhead.

On April 13, 2022 during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian sources claimed the Russian cruiser Moskva was hit by two Neptune missiles, resulting in a fire and subsequent explosion of a shipboard ammunition store. The Russian Ministry of Defence stated, without discussing the cause, that a fire had caused munitions to explode and the crew had been fully evacuated. Russia reported the vessel as still being afloat later in the day of the fire, but Russian state media subsequently reported that it had sunk in inclement weather while being towed. Drones are reported to have been used to harass the vessel and keep its air defences distracted before the missiles were fired from a hidden battery near Odessa. At least two of the missiles are then reported to have struck the ship, causing a massive explosion and inferno as they are believed to have detonated one of Moskova’s exposed deckside missile tubes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-360_Neptune.

SHORAD - Skyshield

SHORAD - Skyshield

Skyshield Air-defence system is a modular, light weight, Short Range Air Defense (SHORAD) system developed by the Swiss corporation Oerlikon Contraves (now a subsidiary of Rheinmetall of Germany). The successor to the Skyguard defense system, Skyshield is intended to rapidly acquire and destroy threatening aircraft and missiles, as well as to fulfill a C-RAM role. The Skyshield is deployed by trucks and other transportation systems. The command post can be placed up to 500 meters from the fire control unit (FCU). The Skyshield system can also be networked with other air defense systems for wider and more effective air coverage, expanding its roles from point defense to area defense.

A modified and improved version of Skyshield with six fully automated turrets, dubbed MANTIS (Modular, Automatic and Network capable Targeting and Interception System) has been ordered by the German Army as a stationary base defence system. Two systems were delivered in 2011, with more orders being planned as a part of German Army's future SysFla air defence program. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyshield.

Patriot Missile

Patriot Missile

 Requested by Ukraine. last spring 2021

The Patriot is a surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, the primary of its kind used by the United States Army and several allied nations. The AN/MPQ-53 uses a Phased Array Tracking Radar to Intercept on Target (PATRIOT). The Patriot system replaced the Nike Hercules system as the US Army's primary High to Medium Air Defense (HIMAD) system and replaced the MIM-23 Hawk (I-HAWK) system as the US.Army's medium tactical air defence system. In addition to these roles, Patriot has been given the function of the US Army's anti-ballistic missile (ABM) system, which is now Patriot's primary mission. The system is expected to stay fielded until at least 2040. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot.

Patriot systems have been sold to the Netherlands, Poland, Germany, Japan, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Taiwan, Greece, Spain, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Romania and Sweden. South Korea purchased several second-hand Patriot systems from Germany after North Korea test-launched ballistic missiles to the Sea of Japan and proceeded with underground nuclear testing in 2006. Jordan also purchased several second-hand Patriot systems from Germany. Poland hosts training rotations of a battery of US Patriot launchers. On December 4, 2012, NATO authorized the deployment of Patriot missile launchers in Turkey to protect the country from missiles fired in the civil war in neighboring Syria. Patriot was one of the first tactical systems in the US Department of Defense (DoD) to employ lethal autonomy in combat.

S-300

 Requested by Ukraine. 03/17/22

The S-300 is a series of initially Soviet and later Russian long range surface-to-air missile systems. The S-300 system was developed to defend against aircraft and cruise missiles for the Soviet Air Defence Forces. Subsequent variations were developed to intercept ballistic missiles. The S-300 system was first deployed by the Soviet Union in 1979, designed for the air defence of large industrial and administrative facilities, military bases and control of airspace against enemy strike aircraft. The system is fully automated, though manual observation and operation are also possible. Components may be near the central command post, or up to 40 km away. Each radar provides target designation for the central command post. The command post compares the data received from the targeting radars up to 80 km apart, filtering false targets. The central command post features both active and passive target detection modes. The S-300 is regarded as one of the most potent anti-aircraft missile systems currently fielded. It is mainly used in Asia and Eastern Europe, including three NATO member countries: Bulgaria, Greece and Slovakia. An evolved version of the S-300 system is the S-400, which entered service on 28 April 2007. Target detection range 180–360 km. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-300_missile_system.

S-300

M142 HIMARS launching a GMLRS rocket

M142 HIMARS

Media confirms M142 HIMARS delivered to Ukraine.

The M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) is a light multiple rocket launcher developed in the late 1990s for the United States Army and mounted on a standard United States Army Family of Medium Tactical Vehicles (FMTV) truck frame. The HIMARS carries one pod with either 6 GMLRS rockets or 1 ATACMS missile. It is based on the United States Army's FMTV five ton truck, and is capable of launching all rockets specified in the Multiple Launch Rocket System Family of Munitions (MFOM). HIMARS ammunition pods are interchangeable with the M270 MLRS however, it is limited to a single pod as opposed to the standard two for the M270 and its variants. The launcher can be transported by Lockheed C-130 Hercules aircraft.

Iron Dome

Iron Dome

 Requested by Ukraine. 03/25/22

Iron Dome is a mobile all-weather air defense system developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries. The system is designed to intercept and destroy short-range rockets and artillery shells fired from distances of 4 kilometers (2.5 mi) to 70 kilometers (43 mi) away and whose trajectory would take them to an Israeli populated area. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome.

Iron Dome

David's Sling

David's Sling, also formerly known as Magic Wand, is an Israel Defense Forces military system designed to intercept enemy planes, drones, tactical ballistic missiles, medium- to long-range rockets and cruise missiles, fired at ranges from 40 km (24.85 miles) to 300 km. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David%27s_Sling

David's Sling is basically the follow-on generations of air defense systems provided to Israel by Hughes Aircraft in the 1960s-1980s. This system is credited for one of the reasons why Israel won the six day war in 1967. The old system used phased array RADAR, special purpose computers, I-HAWK surface to air missiles (SAM), and Aircraft with intercept trajectories. The system has obviously moved to new levels of technologies and performance.

HAWK Mobile
Replaced by FIM-92 Stinger

David's Sling

Iron Beam

Iron Beam is a directed-energy weapon air defense system which was unveiled at the Singapore Airshow on February 11, 2014, and deployed on August 17 2020. The system is designed to destroy short-range rockets, artillery, and mortar bombs; it has a range of up to 7 km (4.3 mi), too close for the Iron Dome system to intercept projectiles effectively. In addition, the system could also intercept unmanned aerial vehicles. Iron Beam uses a directed high energy laser beam to destroy hostile targets at ranges of up to 7 kilometres (4.3 mi). Iron Beam is the fifth element of Israel's integrated air defense system, in addition to Arrow 2, Arrow 3, David's Sling, and Iron Dome. However, Iron Beam can be used stand-alone. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Beam.

Iron Beam

Land Phalanx Weapon System

Phalanx CIWS

The Phalanx CIWS (pronounced "sea-wiz") is a close-in weapon system for defense against incoming threats such as small boats, surface torpedoes, anti-ship missiles and helicopters. A land variant, known as the LPWS (Land Phalanx Weapon System), part of the C-RAM system, has recently been deployed in a short range missile defense role, to counter incoming rockets, artillery and mortar fire. Once engaged it automatically detects and destroys all incoming threats.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phalanx_CIWS.

FAAD C2

FAAD C2 is a C2 system, deployed in several theaters of operation for the C-UAS and C-RAM (Counter-Rocket, Artillery and Mortar) missions for its proven performance and flexibility that enables easy integration with available sensors, effectors and warning systems to launch rapid, real-time defense against short range and maneuvering threats. https://asc.army.mil/web/portfolio-item/anmpq-64-sentinel-2 . https://man.fas.org/dod-101/sys/land/wsh2013/114.pdf.

FAAD C2

Reaper

Reaper

MQ-9 Reaper (Predator B) is an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) capable of remotely controlled or autonomous flight operations for the United States Air Force (USAF). The MQ-9 is the first hunter-killer UAV designed for long-endurance, high-altitude surveillance. In 2006, the then–Chief of Staff of the United States Air Force General T. Michael Moseley said: "We've moved from using UAVs primarily in intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance roles before Operation Iraqi Freedom, to a true hunter-killer role with the Reaper. The MQ-9 is a larger, heavier, and more capable aircraft than the earlier Predator; it can be controlled by the same ground systems used to control MQ-1s. The aircraft is monitored and controlled by aircrew in the Ground Control Station (GCS), including weapons employment. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Atomics_MQ-9_Reaper.

Predator

The Predator is an American remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) that was used primarily by the United States Air Force (USAF) and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Conceived in the early 1990s for aerial reconnaissance and forward observation roles, the Predator carries cameras and other sensors. It was modified and upgraded to carry and fire two AGM-114 Hellfire missiles or other munitions. The aircraft entered service in 1995, and saw combat in the war in Afghanistan, Pakistan, the NATO intervention in Bosnia, 1999 NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, the Iraq War, Yemen, the 2011 Libyan civil war, the 2014 intervention in Syria, and Somalia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Atomics_MQ-1_Predator.

Predator

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Counter Battery Weapon Tracking Radar (COBRA)

Counter Battery Weapon Tracking Radar (COBRA) is a radar system that detects artillery projectiles fired by one or more guns, howitzers, mortars or rocket launchers and, from their trajectories, locates the position on the ground of the weapon that fired it. Such radars are a subclass of the wider class of target acquisition radars. Early counter-battery radars were generally used against mortars, whose lofted trajectories were highly symmetrical and allowed easy calculation of the launcher's location. Starting in the 1970s, digital computers with improved calculation capabilities allowed more complex trajectories of long-range artillery to also be determined. Normally, these radars would be attached to friendly artillery units or their support units, allowing them to quickly arrange counter-battery fire. With the aid of modern communications systems, the information from a single radar can be rapidly disseminated over long distances. This allows the radar to notify multiple batteries as well as provide early warning to the friendly targets. Modern counter-battery radar can locate hostile batteries up to about 50 km away depending on the radar's capabilities and the terrain and weather. Some counter-battery radars can also be used to track the fire of friendly artillery and calculate corrections to adjust its fire onto a particular place, but this is usually a secondary mission objective. The basic technique is to track a projectile for sufficient time to record a segment of the trajectory. Once a trajectory segment is captured it can then be processed to determine its point of origin on the ground and appropriate weapons are used to destroy the source. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counter-battery_radar. The systems are:

  1. AN/MPQ 10 (mortar locating)
  2. AN/MPQ-4 (mortar locating)
  3. AN/KPQ 1 (mortar locating)
  4. AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder radar
  5. AN/TPQ-37 Firefinder radar
  6. AN/TPQ-48 Lightweight Counter Mortar Radar (LCMR)
  7. AN/TPQ-49 LCMR Counterfire Radar
  8. AN/TPQ-50 LCMR Counterfire Radar
  9. AN/TPQ-53 Quick Reaction Capability Radar
  10. ARSOM 2P – NATO reporting name SMALL YAWN
  11. ARTHUR
  12. BL904 radar
  13. Euro-Art COBRA (radar) and Active electronically scanned array
  14. Counter Rocket, Artillery, and Mortar (CRAM)
  15. Radar FA No 15 (Cymbeline) (mortar locating)
  16. EL/M-2084 combined air surveillance and counter-battery radar
  17. Giraffe AMB combined air surveillance and counter-battery radar
  18. Radar FA No 8 (Green Archer) (mortar locating)
  19. MAMBA
  20. RZRA Liwiec Artillery Reconnaissance Radar System
  21. Red Color
  22. SHORAD
  23. SLC-2 Counter-battery radar
  24. SLC-2 Radar
  25. SNAR 1, SNAR 2 – NATO reporting name PORK TROUGH (Mortar Locating)
  26. Swathi Weapon Locating Radar
  27. Type 373 Radar
  28. Type 704 Radar
  29. Aistyonok
  30. Zoopark-1
  31. Penicillin (counter-artillery system)
  32. NATO reporting name SMALL FRED

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Counter Rocket Artillery and Mortar (C-RAM)

Counter rocket, artillery, and mortar, (C-RAM) or counter-RAM, is a set of systems used to detect destroy incoming rockets, artillery, and mortar rounds in the air before they hit their ground targets, or simply provide early warning. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counter_rocket,_artillery,_and_mortar. The systems are:

  1. U.S. Army: Land-Based Phalanx Weapon System: The 20mm Land-Based Phalanx Weapon System (also called C-RAM) is a land-based variant of the U.S. Navy's Phalanx close-in weapon system, a radar-controlled rapid-fire gun for close-in protection of vessels from missiles. Both use a forward-looking infrared (FLIR) camera to allow their operators to visually identify incoming fire before opening fire. But while naval Phalanx systems fire tungsten armor-piercing rounds, the C-RAM uses the 20mm HEIT-SD (high-explosive incendiary tracer, self-destruct) ammunition, originally developed for the M163 Vulcan air defense system. These rounds explode on impact with the target, or on tracer burnout, thereby greatly reducing the risk of collateral damage from rounds that fail to hit their target. PM C-RAM developed and successfully tested a system similar to Iron Dome.
  2. Phalanx CIWS: The Phalanx CIWS (pronounced "sea-wiz") is a close-in weapon system for defense against incoming threats such as small boats, surface torpedoes, anti-ship missiles and helicopters. A land variant, known as the LPWS (Land Phalanx Weapon System), part of the C-RAM system, has recently been deployed in a short range missile defense role, to counter incoming rockets, artillery and mortar fire. Once engaged it automatically detects and destroys all incoming threats. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phalanx_CIWS.
  3. Israel: Iron Dome: Iron Dome is an Israeli missile system featuring multiple-target tracking and self-guided missile interceptors. Due to the ongoing increase of its engagement range and new missile and interception improvements, plus surface-to-air missile capability, it has developed into a fully-fledged air defence system. By November 2012, the system had intercepted over 400 rockets fired into Israel by Gaza Strip militants. Based on operational success, estimates are that Iron Dome is currently the most-effective and most-tested counter missile system in existence.
  4. Rheinmetall: Nächstbereichschutzsystem MANTIS: Nächstbereichschutzsystem MANTIS is a 35mm fully automated C-RAM system, produced by Rheinmetall based on Oerlikon's Skyshield. It has been in use by the Luftwaffe from 2011.
  5. Italy: Porcupine: A typical Porcupine configuration for the Italian Army consists of four firing units, one central control post for target designation and weapon control and a 3D radar system track while scan type for surveillance and target tracking. Each remote firing unit consists of a 20 mm M61A1 Gatling cannon, its ammunition handling system and a stabilised optronic infra-red (IR) tracking system.
  6. Italy: DRACO: The DRACO is a multipurpose weapon station operating against Air, R.A.M. and Surface targets. It was designed for the Italian Army by OTO-Melara using the Centauro 8x8 wheeled armored vehicle chassis. The main armament consists of a high rate of fire 76mm/62 gun with an automatic ammunition loading system; the 76mm/62 gun is electrically controlled for elevation and traversing, and is stabilized in elevation. DRACO can be installed on 8x8 wheeled platforms, for combat support operations or convoy defence, as well as on tracked vehicles or on shelters for point defence. The main 76mm/62 gun and the automatic loading system are fully compatible with all in service 76mm rounds and also with 76mm DART guided ammunition. DRACO can be completely controlled by two Operators (the Commander and the Gunner) from a remote position, located inside the hull for mobile installation or inside a protected command shelter for fixed installation.[4]
  7. China: LD-2000: The LD-2000 SPAAGM is a Chinese developed land-based close-in weapon system. LD-2000 is based on the Chinese Navy's Type 730 CIWS. In operation, it pairs with a Counter Battery Radar.[5]
  8. Netherlands: Goalkeeper: Goalkeeper CIWS is a Dutch close-in weapon system (CIWS) introduced in 1979. It is an autonomous and completely automatic weapon system for short-range defence of ships against highly manoeuvrable missiles, aircraft and fast-manoeuvering surface vessels. Once activated the system automatically undertakes the entire air defence process from surveillance and detection to destruction, including the selection of the next priority target.
  9. Russia: AK-630: The AK-630 is a Soviet and Russian fully automatic naval close-in weapon system based on a six-barreled 30 mm rotary cannon. It is mounted in an enclosed automatic turret and directed by MR-123 radar and television detection and tracking. The system's primary purpose is defense against anti-ship missiles and other precision guided weapons. However it can also be employed against fixed or rotary wing aircraft, ships and other small craft, coastal targets, and floating mines.

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Air Defense Background

Air defense systems are categorized as tactical or strategic. Tactical systems are used on the battle field. They are mobile systems designed to destroy incoming rockets, artillery, and mortar rounds. Some mobile systems are also strategic. Strategic air defense systems are meant to deal with aircraft and long range missile attacks. For example they are set to defend an ADIZ (air defense information zone) or detect and destroy a ballistic missile. Strategic systems are typically hardened fixed sites.

Counter rocket, artillery, and mortar, abbreviated C-RAM or counter-RAM, is a set of systems used to detect and/or destroy incoming rockets, artillery, and mortar rounds in the air before they hit their ground targets, or simply provide early warning. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counter_rocket,_artillery,_and_mortar.

A counter-battery radar (alternatively weapon tracking radar or COBRA) is a radar system that detects artillery projectiles fired by one or more guns, howitzers, mortars or rocket launchers and, from their trajectories, locates the position on the ground of the weapon that fired it. Such radars are a subclass of the wider class of target acquisition radars. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counter-battery_radar.

An Air Operations Center (AOC) provides command and control of air operations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Operations_Center. They operate with Regional Operations Centers (ROC) and Sector Operations Control Centers (SOCC) depending on the country and its air defense needs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Aerospace_Defense_Command . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Aerospace_Defense_Command#/media/File:NORAD_Region-Sector_Map.jpg.

The following is old information but it still applies. The companies and system names have only changed and expanded.

There are fixed site systems, land mobile systems, below sea level, and sea level systems.

RCA worked on the sea level systems (things that float). Aegis is designed to protect a battle group and in the end the aircraft carrier. They have long range missile defense and gun capability. So they can attack a country from the sea. Their air defense is associated with protecting the aircraft carrier, which has the lethal aircraft and weapons, and it is accomplished with the CIWS. When placed on land, its air defense is limited to a small area associated with the CIWS. So it would need to be placed in each city.

Hughes did the NATO fixed site systems and the NATO mobile systems. The fixed site systems are underground and above ground with massive redundancy. Hughes also did the US JSS system. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hughes_Aircraft_Company. As part of these fixed site systems, the air traffic control systems can be "switched" to air defense mode. So all the sensors and command and control assets of a country merge in time of war but it is the military systems that are designed to survive and are the primary systems while the civilian components only add to the capability. Think in terms of sensors and more eyes. The US has hundreds of air traffic control sensors and ~20,000 civilian air traffic control eyes looking at the sky 24/7. This is in addition to the military staff sitting at their command and control centers using their sensors and the merged ATC sensors.

This is why Hughes provided international air traffic control systems. These systems were designed to be air defense systems and if a country could not take delivery of the air defense elements, it could be quickly augmented with those elements at the first sign of war. Most systems like Korean ATC and Japan Badge-X did / do air traffic control, but they are also full fledged air defense systems. In the 1960's Israel had this type of system and it was credited with winning the six day war in the 1967. This was for countries that could not afford separate air traffic control and air defense systems. They are also small land mass areas where it does not make sense to have 2 separate systems. Think boundaries and interior area. By the time you protect the boundary (ADIZ) the interior is covered so just use it for civilian ATC in peace time.

Mobile systems are designed to be quickly deployed and unlike fixed sites they are designed to deal with the close in battle. They perform air defense (aircraft), missile defense, mortar defense, and land based defense. The key is that they are mobile and can be pre-placed. They also form the forward air defense components of the air defense system with connectivity to the central systems. There are SOC (Sector Operation Centers), Air Operations Centers (AOC), and Forward Air Defense (FAD) locations as deployed elements.

Hughes Aircraft Fullerton California December 20, 1982

Some Hughes GSG Air Defense and Air Traffic Control Systems

  • Japanese Tactical Air Weapons Control System - JTAWCS
  • Swiss Air Defense System - FLORIDA
  • Spain Air Defense System - Combat Grande
  • Tactical Air Weapons Control System
  • Joint Surveillance System
  • German Air Defense Ground Environment (GEADGE)
  • Integrated NATO Air Defense System
  • NATO Air Defence Ground Environment (NADGE) - NSPA
  • Airborne Early Warning / Ground Environment Integration Segment (AEGIS)
  • Canadian Air Traffic Control System
  • Korean Air Traffic Control System
  • Joint Tactical Information Distribution System (JTIDS)
  • AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel
  • AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder radar
  • AN/TPQ-37 Firefinder radar

Hughes Aircraft Ground Systems Group or PDF. When you examine this old publication the key message is that there were a collection of people that engaged in massive technology for the purpose of air defense. All defense systems can trace their modern roots to this very special place. The sole purpose was to protect countries from tyrants and pure evil that starts wars and attempts to destroy countries and people.

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Hughes Aircraft Ground Systems Group

Ground Systems Group in 1982 contains more than 3 million square feet of floor space, more than 12,000 employees and more than 250 diverse defense programs.

Welcome to GSG's 25th
anniversary open house

It gives us great pleasure to welcome you and your family to GSG's Silver Anniversary Open House celebration. Much has been planned to make this Open House, and your visit, a memorable one. We hope you enjoy this special day at Ground Systems Group.

A better motto could not have been chosen. GSG certainly possesses A Proud Past and A Bright Future. In the 25 years since Hughes Aircraft Company made the decision to open a new facility in Fullerton, Ground Systems Group has established itself as a world leader in a wide variety of important military defense systems that today make our communities and our country, and many other countries, safer places to live. It is indeed A Proud  Past.

The Group is a leader in land and sea radars, in air defense command and control programs, in naval tactical display systems, in advanced computer software technology, in underwater detection, and a long list of other advanced electronic equipment and systems. The reason Ground Systems Group is a world leader in these areas is because it makes equipment and systems better than anyone else. And we make them better because of you, the hard-working GSG employee dedicated to performing your job well. Keep up the good work, and join all of us at GSG in working towards A Bright Future.

Dr. Nicholas Yaru
Sr. Vice President

                                   

Clare Carlson
Sr. Vice President
and Group President

Clare Carlson, senior vice president and group president, left, and Dr. Nick Yaru, senior vice president, proudly display the banner honoring Ground Systems Group's 25 years in Fullerton. Today's Open House honors the people and the programs who have given Ground Systems Group A Proud Past and A Bright Future.

Ground Systems Group in 1957 was nothing more than a barren stretch of hills, awaiting ground breaking. The growth of GSG began in early 1957 when Ground Systems Laboratory, then located in Culver City, was elevated to Division status and moved to Fullerton. In early 1958, Ground Systems was elevated to the Group status, and work on the permanent site was started.


Page Two                                            GSG 25th Anniversary Open House Publication                                            May 16, 1982

Missile Monitor among first GSG products in the field - Missile Monitor, above, also called AN/MSG-4, was one of the first GSG programs to be put into military operation when it was tested in Colorado by the U.S. Army in 1960 and soon after deployed in Europe. Missile Monitor was a forerunner of today's modern ADGE systems by automating the detection and tracking of air­ borne targets, and forwarding that information to air defense missile batteries. Missile Monitor was the first system in the world to eliminate the grease pencil plotting and voice-telling methods of providing information to defense units. Development of the system was initiated at Ground Systems when it was still a laboratory status and located in Culver City in the mid-1950s.

Frescan or Frequency Scanning Radar - A major product that started Ground Systems Group off in the right direction was Fres­ can (also known as Frescanar), the first Frequency Scanning Radar. It was the first completely integrated electronic system for accumulating three-dimensional data on all airborne targets. Frescan was first conceived at Hughes Aircraft Company in 1948. By 1950, the company was demonstrating that experimental antennas designed for the Frescan technique could work. The first complete system was successfully tested in 1953, left. The first system, the shipboard AN/SPS-26, was delivered and installed in 1957. Today, technology derived from that first system is used in a wide variety of GSG· radars, ranging from the present shipboard version called AN/SPS-52C to the land-based Hughes Air Defense Radar (HADA) to the advanced AN/TPQ-36 and AN/TPQ-37 Firefinder weapon locating radars.

Land-based application of new Frescan radar - In the late 1950s, the revolutionary Frescan radar was first put into actual  use as the AN/SPS-26 shipboard antenna. Soon after, however, the same technology was used in the AN/MPS-23 antenna, below, which was used as the detection radar for the AN/MSG-4 Missile Monitor system. The first Frescan AN/SPS-26 antenna was delivered and installed aboard a ship in  1957.

Hughes equipment getting presidential approval - President Lyndon Johnson and Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, below, boarded the U.S.S. Enterprise aircraft carrier in 1967 and received a demonstration of a GSG produced AN/SYA-1 Navy Tactical Data System (NTDS) console. The AN/SYA-1 was the forerunner of the AN/UYA-4 and AN/UYQ-21 consoles, both of which are still under production at GSG. NTDS consoles were one of the first major programs for GSG, beginning in the late 1950s, and have been one of the longest continuing programs for the entire company.


May 16, 1982                                            GSG 25th Anniversary Open House Publication                                            Page Three

First Air Defense Ground Environment (ADGE) program - GSG's long and celebrated line of ADGE programs began with the Japanese BADGE program, right, in the early 1960s. The system used in BADGE was known as Tactical Air Weapons Control System (TAWCS), with development beginning in the late 1950s. GSG has now produced more than 20 ADGE programs around the world.

"Sure, it's got muscles, but can it type?" - No, although MOBOT could pour water from a pitcher into a glass and not spill a drop. Developed in the 1950s by Hughes Aircraft Company in Culver City, MOBOT, below, was designed to substitute for humans in dangerous places, such as radioactive areas. It had double-jointed shoulders, elbows and wrists, soft padded hands providing a light touch and TV camera eyes to allow a human operator to control it from a safe distance. Each arm could lift 150 pounds. Versions were designed for underseas work and on a tracked vehicle. MOBOT was part of GSG's product line.

Big ears pointed to the sky - GSG produced the Mark 1B satellite communications dish antennas, above. These dishes were deployed around the world at ground stations. These antennas allowed controllers in the United States to track, control and communicate with satellites orbiting the earth. The antennas were produced in the 1960s and are still used today.

Mobile air defense system called Vest Pocket - One of the first major programs of GSG, Vest Pocket, above, or MSQ-18, coordinated Hawk and Nike guided missile batteries

 

that were deployed in Europe NATO countries beginning in the late 1950s. Vest Pocket was also used in GSG's Missile Monitor system, which utilized Hughes' Frescanar radar.

First multiple firing of missiles from a ship - In 1963, the Hughes revolutionary Frescan 3-D radar played an integral role in an important Navy test. The guided missile carrier U.S.S. Albany, below, outfitted with Frescan, was the first Navy vessel to simultaneously fire

three surface-to-air missiles. Among other advanced features, Frescan was the first ship­ board radar to electronically compensate for the pitch and roll of the ship, eliminating the requirement for heavy mechanical stabilizing equipment.


Page Four                                            GSG 25th Anniversary Open House Publication                                            May 16, 1982

Air defense on a lonely hill in Spain - Long-range radars housed inside radomes provide early warning detection for Combat Grande, right, the Spanish Air Defense Ground Environment (ADGE) program developed by GSG's Systems Division in the mid-1970s. This was one of many programs that GSG has developed and built as part of consortiums with firms of countries around the world.




Volunteer labor builds GSG employee park - With management providing land, an access road and some materials, Simpson Park on GSG's site was built by volunteer labor from the Hughes Fullerton Employees Association in 1960, left.

A road built for uncomfortable rides? - That's what the road on GSG's Munson Course was built for. Originally built as an Army facility with a dirt road, water basin and rain test chamber in 1958, the Munson Course was improved by Hughes Aircraft Company to provide a wide range of vehicle test conditions. It was rededicated in 1967 and has been operated by GSG ever since.

The Blue Room for demonstrations in 1963 - Used by GSG personnel to demonstrate advanced products to customers and other interested persons, the Blue Room, above, showed off the newest air defense display consoles and top-of-the-line large screen displays.

The Systems Conference Center for demonstrations in 1982 - Housed in the basement of Building 618, the Center, right, demonstrates the latest technological advances. In a special session, a standard HMD-22 radar display console identical to those used in the U.S. Joint Surveillance System was set up to operate in front of a HDP-4000 large screen display.

 

Checking to be sure the test is right - Technicians at GSG's low frequency shock and vibration laboratory run a test on military equipment in 1960. The lab, which still operates, was the largest civilian laboratory of its type in the world. The lab could simulate any vehicular or shipboard motion in order to test equipment. The lab is leased to other firms to conduct their own tests.

 

Helicopter transportable electronic air defense system - In 1960, the U.S. Marines ordered the ANJTSQ-38 of Airtac from GSG. It was a helicopter transportable version of AN/MSQ-18, the land based truck transported version

 

of electronic air defense called Vest Pocket. In the Airtac configuration, the equipment was housed in shelters that were easily deployed by helicopters.

UYA-4 - A proven GSG product - Technicians in GSG's manufacturing area check a UYA-4 Navy Tactical Data System (NTDS) console. GSG's Data Processing Products Division has delivered more than 2,000 of the consoles

to navies around the world. The console receives radar and other detection information and forwards targeting information to defensive systems. The program started in the early 1960s and is still going strong today.


May 16, 1982                                            GSG 25th Anniversary Open House Publication                                            Page Five

GSG technology protecting Europe - Hughes Aircraft Company led an international team to develop NADGE, above, the NATO Air Defense Ground Environment system to protect much of Europe. Begun in the mid-1960s, NADGE is  a  shared system  that coordinates

   

air defense radars and command centers through nearly all the NATO countries. GSG is still active with NADGE today, through the AEGIS program which integrates the airborne E-3A radar information with the existing ground-based  NADGE centers.

One of the world's most advanced radars - The AN/TPQ-37 Weapon Locating Radar, below, the larger of the two GSG Fire­ finder radars, pinpoints enemy artillery and mortar projectiles in flight and back plots their paths to determine the locations of the originating weapons. Firefinders do this in a matter of seconds. Development of the Firefinder radars began in the early 1970s, and GSG today has orders for more than 200 of the systems.

 

Latest offspring of Frescan radar - The Hughes Air Defense Radar (HADR), below, is a new generation long-range, three­ dimensional radar using some technology introduced in the mid-1950s with the Frescan radar. Improvements in HADR, however, make it one of the most advanced radars available in the world today. It is capable of performing all civilian air traffic control functions as well as military air defense functions.

Reliable radio communications with AN/PRC-104 - A Swedish soldier, left, uses a Manpack radio during winter exercises. The AN/PRC-104 is one of a series of radios, in manpack and vehicle­ mounted styles, to be produced during the past 20years by GSG. The Communications and Radar Division has delivered more than 5,000 radios to the U.S. Marines, the U.S. Navy and the Swedish Army.

Putting the artistry in art services - Left, head of GSG's Art Services Department, aids graphic artist in putting on the finishing touches, right, of one of hundreds of wall displays the department has produced. As a primary service to the marketing interests of GSG, the talented art services team of professionals has produced a wide variety of materials that have been exhibited around the world.




Author Comment: Hughes had a spectacular publications department. They would call in people from the hollywood studios industrial base to help engineers produce publications that anyone could understand. Hughes invented Sequential Thematic Organization of Publications (STOP), perhaps the single most important approach to the technical publications that helped the US to excel in massive complex systems and technologies.


Page Six                                            GSG 25th Anniversary Open House Publication                                            May 16, 1982

Outfitting a military classroom - GSG has become a leader in the development of training equipment used for military purposes. Instead of training Firefinder radar operators in the battlefield, where inexperienced troops and equipment are vulnerable, the Army uses

 

computer-operated classroom trainers, or simulators, above, to properly train troops. A 1980s product of GSG's Engineering Services and Support Division, the Firefinder Trainer does a better and cheaper job of training operators than using the actual equipment.

Giving the U.S. and Canada better air defense - The Joint Surveillance System, above, jointly uses civilian airport radars and military radars to provide detection of air invaders for the United States and Canada. This air defense ground environment (ADGE) project is being developed by Systems Division and will be fully operational by the mid-1980s.

"OK little box, tell me where I am" - And it will. The Position Location Reporting System (PLRS), above, developed and produced by GSG's Communications and Radar Division, uses an intricate computerized communications system to tell battlefield soldiers and mobile units where they and others are located. PLRS is a GSG product of the 1970s and 1980s.

 

Jam-free, secure communications at the push of a button - A U.S. Air Force technician operates a Hughes-built Joint Tactical Information Distribution System (JTIDS) Class 1 terminal. Called a HIT (Hughes Improved Terminal), the terminal uses time division and spread spectrum techniques to provide voice and digital communications that is difficult for an enemy to stop.

 

Effective front-line battlefield communications - Defenders, such as this surface-to-air missile Redeye team, above, will receive battle information through terminals tied into the PLRS/JTIDS Hybrid system. That system uses PLRS and JTIDS to provide a complete and reliable battlefield communications method. It is a GSG product of the 1980s.

First HADA system installed in Germany - The first Hughes Air Defense Radar (HADA) antenna to be installed for a customer, below, gets lifted into place in the Federal Republic of Germany earlier this year.

 

New Navy ship detection capabilities - GSG is developing a new sonar device that a ship will tow behind it, above. That device makes possible the detection and classification of ocean targets for surveillance purposes   and works with both shipboard and land-based equipment. The passive system permits greater detection without generating sound signals that would reveal the ship's position. A product of the 1980s.
New antisubmarine torpedo of the U.S. Navy - GSG is putting new guidance and control systems in existing submarine launched heavy torpedoes, below. Under the MK-48 Advanced Capabilities program, members of the Data Processing Products Division are improving the torpedo so that it will be able to perform into the 1990s.


May 16, 1982                                            GSG 25th Anniversary Open House Publication                                            Page Seven

Low Altitude Surveillance Radar (LASR) - A new mobile radar designed to detect low flying aircraft and missiles at short distances, LASR, above, and its larger counterpart Variable Search and Track Radar (VSTAR) are

 

developed from technology first applied in the Firefinder weapon locating radars. Under development in the Communications and Radar Division, both LASR and VSTAR are GSG radars of the 1980s.

Now you see it, now you don't - Through an elaborate process GSG's SLQ/17 electronic countermeasures system, left, fools attacking enemy missiles into believing a ship is at a location where it really isn't. Electronically, the system hides the real ship and makes a "ghost" ship miles away. The missile is fooled and attacks the false "ghost" ship. Produced by Communications and Radar Division, the program began in 1970.

Information at the touch of a finger - Display consoles for GSG's new product line, Command and Control Information Systems (CCIS), below, will provide military commanders with up-to­ date information on the availability of resources such as fighter aircraft or warehoused ammunition. The HMD-8000 display con­ soles will provide information in seven colors and will operate through the use of conventional keyboards and new touch-screen techniques. GSG's Systems Division received the world's first advanced system production contract from Norway and Denmark in late 1981.

Best defense to low flying threats - The small rectangular antenna near the top of the ship's mast, above, is GSG's Improved Point Defense Target Acquisition System (IPD/TAS) antenna. It provides ships with a complimentary self-defense capability against low flying threats such as cruise missiles. It is a 1970s and 1980s product of the Communications and Radar Division.

 

Smiles behind NATO's new air defense shield - All these people are smiling, left, because they are part of GSG's NATO Airborne Early Warning Ground Integration System (AEGIS) test team. In late 1981, this team successfully processed radar information received from an early warning E-3A aircraft flying over the Pacific Ocean and put that information on radar screens in the basement of Building 618. It was the first demonstration of NATO's program to tie in its E-3A aircraft to existing equipment stationed in Europe. The program is expected to be fully operational by the mid 1980s.

A file cabinet forest to house the contracts - Division 10 secretary, left, sifts through the mass of cabinets, locks and drawers to find the one document she is looking for. The hundreds of projects awarded to GSG during the past 25 years have required hundreds of cabinet drawers just to store the bulky contracts. And all must be well organized in order to be found quickly, should a question come up about a specific project or contract.

See full publication Hughes 1982 25th anniversary. When you examine this old publication the key message is that there were a collection of people that engaged in massive technology for the purpose of air defense. All defense systems can trace their modern roots to this very special place. The sole purpose was to protect countries from tyrants and pure evil that starts wars and attempts to destroy countries and people.

See section Military Defense Systems for systems that Ukraine has been provided and for systems Ukraine has requested.

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Equipment Provided To Ukraine

Obviously this content is only provided because it was disclosed by official government sources via multiple normal media channels. This suggests that disclosing this information will not cause harm to the war effort.

The following is a list of military systems that have been provided to Ukraine and requested by Ukraine as identified in the media:

System Site Characteristics Capabilities Date Provided or Requested Comments
Javlen Man-Portable 1. Line of Site Close in Defense System 2014, 03/07/22 This is one of the systems always featured in media reports.
Stinger Man-Portable 1. Line of Site Close in Defense System 2014, 03/07/22 This is one of the systems always featured in media reports.
TB2 drones Mobile 2. Long Range Defense System 2019, 2021 Provided by Turkey. A critical asset that has significantly helped Ukraine defense.
Firefinder Fixed Site
Transportable
Mobile
2. Long Range Defense System

3. Counter Battery Weapon Tracking Radar System (COBRA)

2 units 2015
5 units 03/03/22
10 units 04/14/22
Originally developed by Hughes Aircraft. Systems were sold to Ukraine, the system is being used.

Two units delivered by US Army in 2015. Five units delivered by the Netherlands Ministry of Defence in March 2022, during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.

AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel Fixed Site
Transportable
Mobile
3. Counter Battery Weapon Tracking Radar System (COBRA)

4. Counter Rocket Artillery and Mortar Background (C-RAM)

2 units 04/14/22 Originally developed by Hughes Aircraft.
NASAMS Mobile 3. Counter Battery Weapon Tracking Radar System (COBRA)

4. Counter Rocket Artillery and Mortar Background (C-RAM)

July 2022
2 NASAMS

August 2022
6 NASAMS

Integrated with AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel. NASAMS (Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System, also known as the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System) is the current generation of the I-HAWK missiles used in the integrated air defense systems developed by Hughes Aircraft in the last century. It is a distributed and networked short to medium range ground based air defense system currently developed by Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace (KDA) and Raytheon (previously Hughes Aircraft). The system defends against unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), helicopters, cruise missiles, unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs), and crewed fixed wing aircraft.

To go operational Nov 2022.

Switchblade Man-Portable 2. Long Range Defense System 03/17/22
various dates
US recently provided 100 systems. The quantity is acknowledged to be very low. There have been multiple deliveries since the initial 100 systems.
Unknown No System Named 4. Counter Rocket Artillery and Mortar Background (C-RAM) Unknown It is unclear if Ukraine has been provided with C-RAM systems. Ukraine has been able to shoot down some missiles. It is possible they have only a few systems and it may explain why the NATO training base in Ukraine was defended while Ukrainian cities are being destroyed.
S-300 Mobile 2. Long Range Defense System Requested 3/17/22
04/08/22
Russian long range surface-to-air missile systems. Slovakia provided its Soviet-era S-300 air-defense system to Ukraine on 04/08/22. Slovakia was provided by Patriot system as part of this transfer.
M142 HIMARS Mobile 2. Long Range Defense System 10/04/22 Range determined by missile type, current range 40 miles. Long range missiles have not been provided. Bring the total to 20 with an additional 18 to be provided in the long term.
Patriot Missile Systems Mobile 2. Long Range Defense System Requested last spring 2021 US long range surface-to-air missile systems
Iron Dome Mobile 4. Counter Rocket Artillery and Mortar Background (C-RAM) Requested 3/25/22 The system is designed to intercept and destroy short-range rockets and artillery shells fired from distances of 4 kilometers (2.5 mi) to 70 kilometers (43 mi).
Howitzers Mobile Long Range Weapon 18 04/13/22
72 04/21/22
72 systems along with 144,000 artillery rounds. Part of $800 million dollar package.
Tactical Vehicles Mobile 72 04/21/22 72 Vehicles. Part of $800 million dollar package.
Phoenix Ghost Tactical UAS Mobile Tactical UAS 122 04/21/22 121 Phoenix Ghost Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems. Part of $800 million dollar package.

US WHITEHOUSE RELEASE [Ref: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/03/16/fact-sheet-on-u-s-security-assistance-for-ukraine]

Fact Sheet on U.S. Security Assistance for Ukraine

March 16, 2022 • Statements and Releases

President Biden today announced an additional $800 million in security assistance to Ukraine, bringing the total U.S. security assistance committed to Ukraine to $1 billion in just the past week, and a total of $2 billion since the start of the Biden Administration. The assistance will take the form of direct transfers of equipment from the Department of Defense to the Ukrainian military to help them defend their country against Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified invasion.

The new $800 million assistance package includes:

In addition to the weapons listed above, previous United States assistance committed to Ukraine includes:

In addition to the U.S.-produced short-range air defense systems the Ukrainians have been using to great effect, the United States has also identified and is helping the Ukrainians acquire additional, longer-range systems on which Ukraine’s forces are already trained, as well as additional munitions for those systems.

The United States continues to expedite the authorization and facilitation of additional assistance to Ukraine from our Allies. At least 30 countries have provided security assistance to Ukraine since the Russian invasion began. In 2022, the Department of State authorized third-party transfers of defensive equipment from more than 14 countries, a number that continues to grow as Allies and Partners increase support to Ukraine.

###

April 21, 2022.

President Biden announces additional military aid for Ukraine today totaling about $800 million, matching the same amount last week, plus $500 million in financial assistance.

###

The current policy approach appears to be based on the idea that Putin and Russia will burn themselves out and the war will fade away as Russia retreats from Ukraine. At that point Ukraine will be free and then rebuilding can begin. War reparations and war crimes trials may or may not follow. The current war reparations costs exceed $2 trillion dollars. This will devastate Russia for a generation, so it is unclear how the world will proceed to distribute the costs. The military weapons that Russia unleashed is across a massive population and infrastructure unlike their previous invasions. It is obvious they did not think about the costs of the destruction even if they won the war. Someone needs to eventually rebuild. See section War Costs and Reparations.

The following table shows the Russian losses in Ukraine as of April 2022.

Military Elements

Ukrainian
Capability

Russian
Capability

Russian Losses
03/09/2022

Russian Losses
04/14/2022

Troops

1,096,600

2,900,000

12,000

19,900

Planes / Combat Aircraft

124

1,391

49

160

Helicopters

57

407

81

144

Tanks

987

3,417

317

753

Artillery

1,818

5,899

120

366

Armored Personnel Carriers

831

7,271

1,070

1,968

Mobile Short-Range Ballistic Missile Systems (SRBM)

-

4

Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS)

56

122

Boats

2

7

Vehicles

482

1,437

Fuel Tanks

60

76

UAV

7

134

Anti-Aircraft

28

64

Special Equipment

-

25

[Ref: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60798352]
[Ref: https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/general-staff-russia-lost-19900-troops-in-ukraine-since-start-of-invasion]
[Ref: https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/ukraines-military-over-12000-russian-troops-have-been-killed-since-feb-24]

The above narrative was provided on or about April 2022. Since then the West has stepped up and started to provided weapons needed to fight the war such as the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS). Although the weapons are still measured and do not include long range capabilities that would allow Ukraine to strike deep inside Russia like Russia is striking Ukraine from deep inside Russia and the Black Sea. --- September 2022.

back to TOC


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Key Daily Events

Now that Ukraine is under attack the following is a daily log of some key events. There will be no references. The world wide media especially CNN and MSNBC are providing massive amounts of information from Ukraine and Russia using traditional journalism of reporters in the feild providing live reports. There is also Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty . Kyiv Independent

Each day President Zelensky uses social media to transmit messages that Ukraine will continue to defend their country. The messages from President Zelensky are gravely important and very inspiring affecting both the Ukrainians and the rest of the world. To understand some aspects of Ukraine see section Overview of Ukraine.

There are systems assessments provided after some of the daily events. The systems assessments are very significant. I need ammunition not a ride --- President Zelensky, days after the invasion. What a terrible systems finding. This is sad and pathetic. Since then NATO, US, and UK have been providing measured levels of equipment. President Zelensky keeps requesting equipment and as time unfolds the equipment is provided, but at great cost to Ukraine. See section Gulf War versus Russian Invasion of Ukraine.

This analysis has explanations for why the equipment is not immediately provided and it all points to bad policy based on a reactive and fearful mindset from the leadership that is denial that the world is in big trouble with Putin and Russia. Unfortunately, Putin and Russia have entered into a state of mind that historically has been refered to as insanity. History shows that there are few options when dealing with insanity of a nation state or an empire that does not realize it has not existed for a generation. See section Military Defense Systems.

.

Events

11/24/2022 Thursday

Systems Assessment: Olena Zelenska basically stated that they are prepared to fight this war for 2-3 years if it means eventual entry into the European Union. They have had it with Russia. Even if they never join the European Union they will never again accept Russian subjugation.

11/11/2022 Friday

10/11/2022 Tuesday

Systems Assessment: It is possible that this system once delivered in sufficient quantity may provide the air defense shield that Ukraine has been requesting since Russia started sending long range missiles into Ukraine. Air defense is not just trying to intercept an incoming missile but also destroying the source of an incoming missile. The concept is simple, one missile may make it through but then there will be no future missiles from that location. It does not matter if they are mobile. The missile source will be destroyed. All this is reduced  to probability of intercept. The probability of intercepting a missile in flight is significantly less than the probability of destroying the source of the missiles, again a key air defense element. Basically the probability of missile intercept might be Pmi ~ 50% while the probability of destroying the missile source is Pms ~ 99%. Ukraine is being provided the capability to intercept missiles in flight but not the capability to destroy the missile source because it would involve strikes within Russian territory including Russian ships. It is a numbers and distance time problem. If the missiles are traveling long distances, and a sufficient number of intercepting missiles can be used to intercept an incoming missile, then the Pmi might increase to 99%. This is not a full up air defense system.

There is a reason why Russia keeps spewing the rhetoric to not attack Russian soil. It is because a full up air defense system would end the war overnight. Russia would be stopped cold as their missile sources would be destroyed with each launch of one of their missiles into Ukraine. Russia knows this, NATO knows this, the UK knows this, and the US knows this. The problem is what would be the next Russian move with the inability to win the war in Ukraine using conventional weapons. It appears that policy makers are using the tactic to exhaust Russia to the negotiating table. Does Russia have the same air defense systems that can strike against missile sources, yes, but it would not matter as Russian ships are destroyed and missiles cross the Russian border and take out Russian fixed and mobile missile sites.

Large numbers of Russian dissidents are fleeing Russia. The current Russian leadership is allowing them to leave because they know that those people would put a stop to this sooner rather than later. However, not all are leaving and those that are staying will be key players in stopping the war and changing the direction of Russia. It is just a matter of time.

10/04/2022 Monday

10/03/2022 Sunday

10/02/2022 Saturday

09/30/2022 Friday

Systems Assessment: The Russian propaganda was massive in 2014 when the world was convinced that the territory taken by Russia was not Ukrainian territory. The world is quickly learning that Ukrainians were forced to live under a tyrannical regime that is equal to or worse than all other tyrannical regimes in world history. This invasion and its causes will be studied and discussed for decades and form the dialog of many future generations seeking freedom, liberty, justice, and the moral high ground. Russia as a country and a people is now permanently scarred and it will take generations for it to recover and find a normal path of peaceful existence. Russia faced a similar situation when it joined with NAZI Germany to invade and split Poland between Russia and Germany. This was lost to world history as the allies needed to have Russia join their side in order to defeat NAZI Germany.

09/12/2022 Monday

Systems Assessment: The Russian propaganda was massive in 2014 when the world was convinced that the territory taken by Russia was not Ukrainian territory. The world is quickly learning that Ukrainians were forced to live under a tyrannical regime that is equal to or worse than all other tyrannical regimes in world history. This invasion and its causes will be studied and discussed for decades and form the dialog of many future generations seeking freedom, liberty, justice, and the moral high ground. Russia as a country and a people is now permanently scarred and it will take generations for it to recover and find a normal path of peaceful existence. Russia faced a similar situation when it joined with NAZI Germany to invade and split Poland between Russia and Germany. This was lost to world history as the allies needed to have Russia join their side in order to defeat NAZI Germany.

07/05/2022 Tuesday

Systems Assessment: The cost estimate is incomplete because it does not include the costs associated with the people. They have died, lost their health, lost their their faith in humanity, and will never be the same. A cost analysis was performed in March 2022 and the costs were estimated to be $1,931,500,000,000 with a statement that the bill needs to be sent immediately to Russia. Apparently they ignored the bill. Using modern weapons designed to fight a European war causes massive damage. War Costs and Reparations.

While Russia has been engaged in this effort for decades with other countries, all the other countries were small in comparison to Ukraine. Although the population of Ukraine has dropped over the decades because of actions from Russia, it is the largest land mass country in Europe and it stands to reason that there is a large amount of infrastructure and housing. Russian Empire Needs.

06/30/2022 Wednesday

Systems Assessment: What is happening in Russia is what has happened in many US companies. Toxic and very stupid trust fund babies take control of a company and come in making demands that destroy the company. It is rare when there is a recovery, but it does happen in some instances. Those that have lived through these scenarios note the insanity of the situation as massive devastation happens for short term gains. A common analogy is that management takes a shot gun and blows off their own balls. A crude analogy but very effective in communicating the situation. It appears that the Russian trust fund baby class has done the same to Russia.

05/13/2022 Friday

05/12/2022 Thursday

05/11/2022 Wednesday

05/10/2022 Tuesday

05/09/2022 Monday

05/08/2022 Sunday - Mothers Day

05/07/2022 Saturday

05/06/2022 Friday

*** Daily Events ***

05/02/2022 Monday Day 68

05/01/2022 Sunday Day 67

Systems Assessment: The following are two key article extracts that clearly summarize the horrible situation. The systems assessment is that the world is in big trouble. Russia has been running a massive production war machine to manufacture huge numbers of military weapons while the world was not watching. It is clear that they have had plans in place for decades. It is very clear that the US Trump administration and the Republican party will receive devastating assessments in history.

In February 2014 Russia invaded and in March 2014 annexed the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine. This event took place after of the Ukrainian Revolution of Dignity and marks the start of the Russain War against Ukraine. President Obama was dealing with massive Republican obstruction and the administration was unable to deal with this massive threat to world stability and massive threat to the US. Mitt Romney was the only voice of reason sounding the alarms in the Republican primaries. It was in 2016 that the Republican party changed its platform on Russian aggression and war attacks.

President Trump may have been involved with a change to the Republican Party campaign platform that watered down support for US assistance to Ukraine. Diana Denman, a Republican delegate who supported arming US allies in Ukraine, claimed that Trump aide J.D. Gordon said at the Republican Convention in 2016 that Trump directed him to support weakening that position in the official platform. Ultimately, the softer position was adopted.

Trump said on the campaign trail that he didn't want World War III over Ukraine. And he wanted better relations with Russia. The change to the Ukraine platform in Cleveland attracted attention because it raised questions about whether it might have been evidence of communications between Russians and the Trump campaign, or was intended by the Trump team as some kind of a signal to the Russians about their willingness to accommodate them. This is similar to what Nixon did with North Vietnam when he announced a secret plan that would end the war if he were elected. President Johnson upon learning of this clearly stated that this was treason but he also stated that he did not want to tear the country apart and begin treason charges against Nixon (we were at war with North Vietnam).

What has become clear is that at the time of the 2016 convention, Russia was running a broad series of active measures against the US presidential election that included clandestine outreach by human agents and an overt information campaign on social media. That wasn't known to the public then, but FBI and Congressional investigators looked into whether anyone in the Trump camp helped the Russians who were attacking the election.

Trump won the 2016 presidential election. At the time the Internet was filled with articles that if Mitt Romney were nominated as the Republican candidate and elected President or Hillary Clinton were elected president then World War III would start. The US had a buffoon in the Whitehouse for 4 years and this empowered Russia to continue with their long term plans of empire.

It is clear that this is first a problem for the EU, then the UK, then the US, and finally the rest of the world. It is unclear why the EU was not on top of this very bad cancer that had taken root that we now see as a nation state, Russia, that has gone insane. It is probably the age old denial syndrome, because the times are good and the realty is too horrible to think about and address. Reality is now here. No one can run and hide.

*** START EXTRACT ***

Russian Draft Document Gives New Clues To Russian Plans For Occupied Ukrainian Regions

[Ref https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-fake-referendums-russia-draft-document/31828617.html, April 30, 0222]

A draft document prepared by top officials with Russia’s ruling political party calls for a new state named Southern Rus to be created from some regions of Ukraine occupied by Russian forces.

News of the proposal, obtained by Schemes, an investigative project of RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service, comes as fighting rages in Ukraine’s eastern and southern regions, with Russian forces pressing an offensive on multiple fronts against fierce Ukrainian resistance.

It also comes with Russian officials signaling an intention to stage referendums in parts of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions, much of which have been under the control of Russia-backed separatists for nearly eight years, as well as another region, Kherson.

The vote would be aimed at uniting occupied regions with Russia, similar to what happened in Crimea in 2014.

Just days before the February 24 invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would recognize the Donetsk and Luhansk regions under separatist control as independent states; a declaration that Kyiv, and much of the rest of the world, dismissed.

The draft document obtained by Schemes, titled The Manifesto Of The South Russian People's Council and dated April 16, does not specify which occupied territories would make up the new state of “Southern Rus.”

The name “Rus” is derived from the name given to loosely organized lands in the 8th to 10th centuries that were first controlled by a kingdom in Kyiv, until power shifted to Moscow, leading to the creation of Russia.

But the manifesto declares that Ukraine lost legitimacy after the 2013-2014 Maidan revolution, which culminated in the ouster of President Viktor Yanukovych. Russia has long tried to argue that the street protests were a coup d’etat, and that the government was taken over by “Nazis” and “Banderites” -- a reference to the 20th century Ukrainian nationalist leader, Stepan Bandera.

“In response to terror and the totalitarian imposition of the ideology of Nazism and Bandera by the former State of Ukraine, we, in the form of the South Russian People's Council, take power into our own hands and establish a new state of Southern Rus,” the document says.

“We recognize the Russian language, as well as the Ukrainian dialect, as the native language and the language of interethnic communication, with the equality of all languages and nationalities,” the text reads.

The document’s sketch for a new “Southern Rus” state echoes earlier language promoted by Putin and other top Kremlin officials, who called for the establishment of “Novorossia” -- another historical concept referring to lands, mainly in Ukraine, that were previously part of the Russian Empire in the 18th and 19th centuries.

"We are building our state on the basis of the understanding of the historical and genetic kinship and unity of the tripartite Russian nationality -- Ukrainians, Belarusians, and Russians -- fraternal friendship, and mutual assistance,” the document states.

'Kherson Is Waiting For Liberation'

Metadata for the word document identified by Schemes indicates that Roman Romanov, top official with United Russia, was either author of the document, or involved in its creation. United Russia is the Kremlin-affiliated party that dominates Russia’s parliament and the country’s political life.

Officials who spoke to Schemes anonymously said the document was later passed to aides of Konstantin Malofeyev, a wealthy and influential Russian businessman who has been instrumental in financing and supporting separatist efforts in the Donbas for years.

Malofeyev was sanctioned by the United States and the European Union in 2014 for his role in the annexation of Crimea. He was indicted in early April for trying to evade those sanctions.

Neither Romanov nor United Russia’s secretary-general, Andrei Turchak, could be reached for comment by Schemes. Malofeyev refused to discuss the manifesto when contacted, and hung up the phone, saying he did not communicate with journalists.

The online news site Meduza reported this week that the Kremlin was considering holding two referendums in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions on May 14 and 15.

Meduza said another referendum may also be staged in Kherson, a region that is just north of Crimea and is partially occupied by Russian forces.

"Unfortunately, there have been rumors that the occupiers are preparing something [in Kherson] for the first days of May.” Hennady Lahuta, the head of the region’s military administration, told RFE/RL. “Either a 'referendum' or whatever else you want to call it.”

“I can only say this: the entire Kherson region is waiting for liberation. It is Ukrainian,” he added. “It wants to live in a united, peaceful, glorious, conjoined Ukraine.”

'How About We Cut Off Your Ear?': Ukrainian Teen Describes Family's 'Filtration' By Russian Troops

[Ref https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-filtration-violence-threats/31829588.html, May 01, 2022 ]

Maria Vdovychenko says she'll never forget the conversation she overheard before being screened by Russian soldiers as she and her family were fleeing the siege of Mariupol.

"What did you do with people who didn't pass the filtration?" one of the soldiers asked.

"Shot 10 and stopped counting -- not interested," came the reply.

Traveling with her mother and younger sister, the 17-year-old Vdovychenko and her father were two of an estimated 30,000 Ukrainians so far to undergo "filtration," Moscow's alleged campaign to catch and punish perceived enemies or others deemed somehow unreliable from among the war's refugees.

Accusations have followed that Ukrainians ensnared in the occupation forces' vetting are being killed or "disappeared," or forcibly deported to Siberia and other Russian destinations, in the latest indication of possible war crimes by Russia in the 9-week-old offensive.

Moscow has denied committing atrocities and routinely blames Ukrainian forces for civilian deaths and other abuses in a war that Russian censorship prohibits from being described as a "war" at all.

'My Legs Started To Tremble'

Ukrainian officials have accused Russian forces of transporting hundreds of thousands of civilians from shattered Ukrainian cities, taking their documents, and putting them in so-called “filtration" camps, before moving them to Russia.

Vdovychenko told Current Time that her family's experience was not of any kind of filtration "settlement" but a bottleneck to screen families like hers.

Her family had waited two days and nights in their car to leave Mariupol, a strategic port city on the Sea of Azov, which local officials now say has been essentially "razed" by weeks of bombardment and its remaining occupants deprived of electricity, gas, and water.

"There was a column of hundreds of cars," Vdovychenko said. "You can't even use a toilet. Your legs are swollen. Your whole body hurts."

Her mother and her 12-year-old sister were both spared the filtration, even though the Russians had made it known that anyone 14 or over would be screened.

She said she had steeled herself for a "very difficult" ordeal but was terrified to find herself alone in a room with five armed men, while her father was undergoing his own interrogation, which included a beating.

She was fingerprinted, her documents scanned, and her smartphone scoured for signs of disloyalty to the forces currently occupying wide swaths of her homeland.

Then, when it seemed to be nearly over, one of the men appeared to allude to rape, which Human Rights Watch (HRW) and other groups say has become a feature of Europe's biggest military invasion since World War II.

"My legs started to tremble when a soldier who was lying on a mattress said: 'Don't you like her? There will be more women later. We'll find something,'" Vdovychenko said. "They didn't like me, and they just kicked me out."

She said she wasn't allowed to wait with her father, who was bullied and beaten and at one point asked by an interrogator: "How about we cut off your ear?"

He didn't know how the interview ended, Vdovychenko said, since he said he was struck in the head and only regained consciousness on the pavement outside.

More than two dozen checkpoints later, with no more "filtration" along the way, she and her family eventually reached territory controlled by the Ukrainian government.

"Even the sky was different there. It was clean. There was none of that dust that's kicked up and hangs in the air from the explosions. We started to hope that we can settle our lives. We deserve it, after all those horrors. We really wanted to live."

Accusations Of 'Disappeared'

Vdovychenko's story and other accounts collected by RFE/RL highlight the emerging pattern of a crude and brutal process by Russian and separatist forces to vet fleeing Ukrainians for people who might have worked as civil servants, soldiers, police, or security officers.

Other Ukrainians displaced by the war have talked of weeks awaiting screening at "pre-filtration" sites, perilous escapes on foot to avoid "filtration," and Russian roundups within Mariupol to interrogate civil servants and other local workers.

Many observers are increasingly concerned at reports that some of the detainees have been deported to Siberia or Russia's Far East, or simply "disappeared" after being tortured and handed over to Moscow's separatist allies in eastern Ukraine.

Moscow has acknowledged relocating more than 1 million Ukrainians since President Vladimir Putin launched the all-out invasion on February 24 -- deportations that critics suggest violate the laws of war.

Ukrainian officials have accused Russian forces of transporting hundreds of thousands of civilians from shattered Ukrainian cities, taking their documents, and putting them in the “filtration" camps, before moving them to Russia.

Lyudmyla Denisova, the Ukrainian parliament's commissioner for human rights, says at least four "filtration" camps are operating near Mariupol.

The U.S. ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Michael Carpenter, told the OSCE's Permanent Council on April 28 of "harrowing" accounts from the camps.

He said local leaders, activists, journalists, and religious leaders were being abducted, tortured, and sometimes killed by Russian forces.Carpenter cited "credible reporting" indicating that Russian soldiers are detaining and "brutally interrogating" them for suspected links to Ukraine's government or independent media. Some of the detainees are then being sent to separatist-held territory in Donetsk and "reportedly disappeared or murdered."

He predicted a "wave of abuses" against perceived opponents ahead of "sham" referendums to assert claims to areas under Russian control.

One Ukrainian who lost his home and business in a town near Mariupol before fleeing with his wife and two sons one month into the siege told RFE/RL's Donbas.Realities about his screening at the hands of Russian forces encircling the city.

The man, who asked RFE/RL not to identify him by name, eventually made his way to Russia, then to Latvia, Poland, and finally to the Czech Republic.

He was required to undergo "filtration" in the village of Bezimenne in order to travel across territory held by the Russia-backed separatists in the Donetsk region.

His wife and his elderly mother were similarly screened.

After waiting for two days, a process he said was accelerated in a special line for cars with children, the Russians confiscated his smartphone and downloaded information from it, and asked him questions about his views on a number of topics.

"How do you feel about [those in] power? Where have you been? What do you know?" he said. "Like they used to do in the KGB."

*** END EXTRACT ***

04/30/2022 Saturday Day 66

04/29/2022 Friday Day 65

04/28/2022 Thursday Day 64

04/27/2022 Wednesday Day 63

04/26/2022 Tuesday Day 62

04/25/2022 Monday Day 61

04/24/2022 Sunday Day 60

04/23/2022 Saturday Day 59

04/22/2022 Friday Day 58

04/21/2022 Thursday Day 57

Systems Perspective 04/21/2022: Using the language that surfaces during war where there is no room for confusion, where clear communications is key, the Russians destroyed themselves. They not only have they killed people in Ukraine, destroyed Ukrainian cities and towns, they also have caused starvation in the world because Ukraine will be unable to export food to 200+ million people. Today they could have been peacefully vacationing in Crimea, working to feed the world in the ports of Mariupol and Odessa, traveling to and from Ukraine while engaged in business, visiting family and friends. Instead they did the invasion in 2014 and escalated the war to such a level were these people will not be able to live together for generations. What a disaster. This generation is plagued with people that have become massively wealthy around the world like Putin and the Russians behind the war, and they have gone insane. Their insanity is the same insanity that was World War I and World War II.

04/20/2022 Wednesday Day 56

04/19/2022 Tuesday Day 55

04/18/2022 Monday Day 54

04/17/2022 Sunday Day 53

04/16/2022 Saturday Day 52

Systems Perspective: Multiple US Radio stations backed by Russia is not a free speech issue. This is an ownership issue where a foreign government has taken control of US radio stations because of funds propping up the radio stations. The problem is that this translates into defacto ownership of these radio stations, which could not exist without the Russian funding. It is clear that these radio stations are controlled and owned by a foreign government. The licenses should be immediately pulled by the FCC and the matter handled by the courts. The FCC should not be second guessing what the courts might decide. They must error on the side of protecting the people from significant harm in a time of full scale war that threatens the US. It is also unclear why the US sanctions have not stopped the Russian funding of these radio stations. See section Russian Propaganda.

04/15/2022 Friday Day 51

04/14/2022 Thursday Day 50

04/13/2022 Wednesday Day 49

04/12/2022 Tuesday Day 48

Systems Assessment 04/12/2022

History is moved by cause and effect. When historians analyze history they always think in terms of cause and effect. This is a fundamental systems perspective and that is why true historians can make excellent systems engineers. For years as a young person taking history classes we were always asked what caused World War I and World War II, the massive wars that shaped the last century. All types of reasons were identified and greatly debated in class. No one at the time pointed to money. In the end I concluded that all wars were traced to money. By then I was now in University and not studying history, but in general conversation, if the topics of war arose I would point to money as the cause of all wars. Today, most make great arguments outside of money for why wars start. Even in the current Russian Ukrainian war there are arguments for why the war started with Ukraine. The reality is this war started because of money. It is simple, Ukraine is a source of wealth that was being stripped by Russia for generations. The Ukrainians decided to stop this stripping of wealth and threw out their Russian puppet government. The Ukrainians had a TV show about this corruption and its star is now President of Ukraine who ran on a platform to finally remove all corruption. What is not stated clearly is that Ukraine was in the final stages of removing all Russian corruption that was in place only to make money and lots of money for a few Russians and Ukraine was being devastated by this stripping of wealth. There are media stories abut this, but until now few were able to see the big picture.

04/11/2022 Monday Day 47

04/10/2022 Sunday Day 46

04/09/2022 Saturday Day 45

Systems Analysis 04/09/2022

It was reasonable for Ukraine to expect that they should have been given the same level of defense in 2014 and in the follow on of total invasion in 2022 that was provided to Kuwait when Iraq invaded and annexed Kuwait in 1990. Throughout the Cold War, Iraq had been an ally of the Russian Soviet Union, and there was a history of friction between Iraq and the United States. The operations were code named Operation Desert Shield (2 August 1990 - 17 January 1991) during the buildup of troops and Operation Desert Storm (17 January 1991 - 28 February 1991) during the combat phase. The Russian Soviet Union condemned Baghdad's aggression against Kuwait, but did not support the United States and allied intervention in Iraq and tried to avoid the conflict.

The US and the UN gave several public justifications for involvement in the conflict, the key item being the Iraqi violation of Kuwaiti territorial integrity. In addition, the US moved to support its ally Saudi Arabia, whose importance in the region, and as a key supplier of oil, made it of considerable geopolitical importance. Shortly after the Iraqi invasion, US Defense Secretary Dick Cheney made the first of several visits to Saudi Arabia where King Fahd requested US military assistance. During a speech in a special joint session of the US Congress given on September 11, 1990, US President George Bush summed up the reasons stating that: Within three days, 120,000 Iraqi troops with 850 tanks had poured into Kuwait and moved south to threaten Saudi Arabia. It was then that President Bush decided to act to check that aggression.

This is why the Ukrainians are bewildered by the response they have received from their allies.

The US response to the invasion of Kuwait was massive.

The US Navy dispatched two naval battle groups built around the aircraft carriers USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and USS Independence to the Persian Gulf, where they were ready by August 08, 1991 . The US also sent the battleships USS Missouri and USS Wisconsin to the region. A total of 48 US Air Force F-15s from the 1st Fighter Wing at Langley Air Force Base, Virginia, landed in Saudi Arabia and immediately commenced round-the-clock air patrols of the Saudi - Kuwait - Iraq border to discourage further Iraqi military advances. They were joined by 36 F-15 A-Ds from the 36th Tactical Fighter Wing at Bitburg, Germany. The Bitburg contingent was based at Al Kharj Air Base, approximately an hour south east of Riyadh. The 36th TFW would be responsible for 11 confirmed Iraqi Air Force aircraft shot down during the war. Two Air National Guard units were stationed at Al Kharj Air Base, the South Carolina Air National Guard's 169th Fighter Wing flew bombing missions with 24 F-16s flying 2,000 combat missions and dropping four million pounds (1,800,000 kilograms; 1,800 metric tons) of munitions, and the New York Air National Guard's 174th Fighter Wing from Syracuse flew 24 F-16s on bombing missions. The military buildup eventually reached 543,000 troops, twice the number used in the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

Much of the material was airlifted or carried to the staging areas via fast sealift ships, allowing a quick buildup. As part of the buildup, amphibious exercises were carried out in the Gulf, including Operation Imminent Thunder, which involved the USS Midway and 15 other ships, 1,100 aircraft, and a thousand Marines. In a press conference, General Schwarzkopf stated that these exercises were intended to deceive the Iraqi forces, forcing them to continue their defense of the Kuwaiti coastline.

The Gulf War began with an extensive aerial bombing campaign on January 16, 1991. For 42 consecutive days and nights, the coalition forces subjected Iraq to one of the most intensive air bombardments in military history. The coalition flew over 100,000 sorties, dropping 88,500 tones of bombs, which widely destroyed military and civilian infrastructure. The coalition launched a massive air campaign, which began the general offensive code named Operation Desert Storm. The priority was the destruction of Iraq's Air Force and anti-aircraft facilities. The sorties were launched mostly from Saudi Arabia and the six carrier battle groups (CVBG) in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea. The next targets were command and communication facilities. Saddam Hussein had closely micromanaged Iraqi forces in the Iran - Iraq War, and initiative at lower levels was discouraged. Coalition planners hoped that Iraqi resistance would quickly collapse if deprived of command and control. The air campaign's third and largest phase targeted military targets throughout Iraq and Kuwait: Scud missile launchers, weapons research facilities, and naval forces. About a third of the coalition's air power was devoted to attacking Scuds, some of which were on trucks and therefore difficult to locate. US and British special operations forces had been covertly inserted into western Iraq to aid in the search for and destruction of Scuds.

Iraqi anti-aircraft defenses, including man-portable air-defense systems, were surprisingly ineffective against enemy aircraft, and the coalition suffered only 75 aircraft losses in over 100,000 sorties, 44 due to Iraqi action. Two of these losses are the result of aircraft colliding with the ground while evading Iraqi ground-fired weapons. The USAF F-117 Nighthawk was one of the key aircraft used in Operation Desert Storm.

The war marked the introduction of live news broadcasts from the front lines of the battle, principally by the American network CNN. There were daily broadcast of images from cameras onboard American bombers during Operation Desert Storm. The Gulf War had three of the largest tank battles in American military history. The live images showed that the US stealth aircraft were able to completely bypass the air defense systems.

Based on the history of the Gulf War it was reasonable on the part of the Ukrainians to expect that there would be a similar response to the invasion of Ukraine. However that did not happen. History will speculate for generations why there were differences. Not widely known, but when Kuwait was initially invaded, President Bush stated that the US was not interested in the fall of Kuwait suggesting that the US would do nothing. Within days policy completely changed and the US was going to war in an effort similar to World War II. It was terrifying. It is unclear what happened. There is a complete media void, but having lived through that history, it is clear that these events occurred. The primary reasons for the poor response to Ukraine will include:

  1. Ukraine did not offer any significant vested interests like insuring the world oil supply.
  2. Ukraine as a relatively poor country did not offer cash to help defend the country.
  3. It was clear that Ukraine would be running up a large tab based on actual goods and services provided as part of the military and refugee costs.

See section Gulf War.

04/08/2022 Friday Day 44

Systems Assessment 04/08/22

The following extract summarizes the current situation.

[ref: https://www.rferl.org/a/breedlove-nuclear-fears-west-deterred/31791020.html]

*** EXTRACT START ***

Former NATO Commander Says Western Fears Of Nuclear War Are Preventing A Proper Response To Putin
A former top NATO commander has said Western fears "about nuclear weapons and World War III" have left it "fully deterred" and Vladimir Putin "completely undeterred" as the Russian leader pursues his increasingly brutal invasion of Ukraine.

"We have ceded the initiative to the enemy," Philip Breedlove told RFE/RL's Georgian Service in a recent interview.

Breedlove is a retired four-star U.S. Air Force general who led U.S. forces in Europe and served as NATO's supreme allied commander from 2013 to 2016.

RFE/RL: Has NATO done enough to help Ukraine? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has asked for more weapons.

Philip Breedlove: In my opinion, we have not. In warfare, you want to deter your enemy, you want to have the initiative and not give the enemy the initiative. And we have ceded the initiative to the enemy. There's a lot more we need to do in the role of being a provider. We have not gotten a medium- and high-altitude air defense there yet, we have not gotten coastal-defense cruise missiles there yet. I do not yet understand why we haven't gotten MiGs [fighter jets] there that other nations want to give them. So, there's a multitude of things even inside our restricted sort of format that we still need to do.

RFE/RL: Zelenskiy has told NATO leaders to never again tell him that Ukraine's military does not match NATO standards. Just how good is the Ukrainian Army?

Breedlove: Well, they're showing us just how good they are. They're magnificent. They have prepared a defensive depth. And they have thought very hard about how to fight with a smaller and less well-provided-for force against a larger and much heavier mechanical force. And it has worked so far like a charm and, of course, it means they use up a lot of ammunition and military weaponry and that's where the West now has to step up its game and give the Ukrainian military what it needs to fight.

RFE/RL: Iraq, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Libya are all places where NATO, a defensive alliance, intervened in the past to stave off a humanitarian catastrophe. Is the reason it has not done the same in Ukraine boil down to Moscow having nuclear weapons?

Breedlove: As I mentioned before, the bottom line is we in the West, certainly my nation, and NATO, are completely deterred in this matter. We have been so worried about nuclear weapons and World War III that we have allowed ourselves to be fully deterred. And [Putin], frankly, is completely undeterred. He has switched into the most horrific war against the citizens of Ukraine, it is beyond criminal at this point.

If you remember what all Western leaders were saying for weeks, if he does this, then we'll do that. That is the definition of ceding the initiative to the enemy and being reactive to what the enemy does. You do not want to do what we have done, which is become deterred, and cede the initiative to the enemy.

RFE/RL: What message is NATO signaling, if any, as a result?

Breedlove: Well, the message I worry about is the message to the Iranians, to the North Koreans, and to the Chinese. We're going to have to deal with Mr. Putin now, and we're going to have to reestablish deterrence and we're going to have to regain the initiative. And we're going to have to send Mr. Putin a strong message that the West doesn't stand for what he's doing.

If [Russia] was the second-best [army] in the world, it didn't send its first team to this fight.

If then we do that, we may be able to re-deter the Iranians, the North Koreans, and the Chinese but right now, the message we're sending to the entire world is if you get a nuclear weapon, you're going to have a certain reaction from the West and certainly from the United States...[that's all]. And I don't think that's the message we want to send them.

RFE/RL: How do you rate the Russian armed forces in Ukraine?

Breedlove: On the battlefield, it's speaking for itself. If it was the second-best [army] in the world, it didn't send its first team to this fight, because this fight has not been executed well. A few things that we completely expected from the Russians are clearly not there. We expected the Russians to fight what we in NATO call the combined-arms fight -- integration of land, air, and sea, an overarching game plan that plays out on the battlefield -- and this hasn't been apparent.

The other thing that is interesting is how little role the Russian Air Force has played. It's been stymied by Ukraine's limited surface-to-air capabilities. We thought Russia could do combined arms. We thought Russia could do suppression of enemy air defense. And we've seen neither and we had assumed that Russia knew how to do this. If they do, it has not shown up in Ukraine.

RFE/RL: What about other factors, including the morale of Russian troops?

Breedlove: There are clear indications that the morale of the Russian troops is poor. Early in the war, a long-range platoon, which in our military are some of our toughest guys, they surrendered in northeast Kharkiv, and one of the first things out of their mouth was, "Do you have any food?"

Another problem for the Russians is medical care for the wounded. Our troops know we're going to bring them off the battlefield, no matter what, and we're going to have medical care for them, and they're going to have something to eat every day and occasionally something hot to eat. That kind of army has good morale, and we see indications that those are all problems for Russia.

RFE/RL: You said on March 2, "Capturing Kyiv is Russia's biggest and most important target." A month later, they aren't even close to anything like that. What could Russia's realistic military objectives be at this point?

Breedlove: They had a plan that they thought was going to take two, maybe three days. They planned around that, which means I think they made a lot of mistakes about what they brought to the fight. They obviously didn't bring enough supplies, and they did not have plans for getting supplies. And if they thought they would be welcomed here, now it is clear that Russia has made an enemy out of everybody in Ukraine. There's nobody there going to be waving Russian flags for them anywhere after what they have done to Ukraine and the Ukrainian people.

We should not accept anything that President Zelenskiy doesn't want.

So, I think that possibly we will see Russia change its goals. I believe we may be entering into a phase where Russia is trying to better its negotiating position. And I believe that also -- that's a little bit of the goal of President Zelenskiy -- [the goal] is to get on the counteroffensive and start taking back some ground to better his negotiating position. We all hope and pray that we can come to a negotiated settlement.

But, selfishly, I'll tell you that we should not accept anything that President Zelenskiy doesn't want. This is not about what the West wants for Ukraine right now. This is about what Ukraine and President Zelenskiy want for his people. And I think he should demand all of Ukraine's lands back. We should not try to force him into something less than that.

RFE/RL: Do you think there is anything that would make Putin halt his invasion of Ukraine?

Breedlove: If he comes across force, he will stop. And frankly, that's what Ukraine is working at doing now. There is still a lot of ugliness ahead. But if there were others to enter, and Mr. Putin ran into steel, I believe he would stop. If Mr. Putin continues on his criminal path, and does something crazy, like biological, chemical, or nukes, as the nations have said, he may get a different response.

One of the things they [Russia] do is weaponizing refugee flows; they've got [millions of] people headed into Europe.

Secondarily, in my opinion, sanctions have never changed Mr. Putin. Sanctions have hurt Russia. They've hurt the Russian people. They've hurt the Russian economy. But they have never, ever changed Mr. Putin's actions. But the sanctions now are so tough and getting tougher every day. I still do not believe they will change Mr. Putin, but they may change those around Mr. Putin. I used to say that [a plot] would never happen. But frankly, Mr. Putin is causing so much suffering for his people. And they are beginning to learn what is really going on in Ukraine. And now I wouldn't bet my paycheck on that.

RFE/RL: Is there any realistic off-ramp that the West could offer Putin at this point?

Breedlove: I do not believe there's a realistic off-ramp that we could offer Mr. Putin that is acceptable to Mr. Zelenskiy. That's why I said before: I am strong-minded and I want to use my voice to say we have no business telling President Zelenskiy what he should and should not do in these negotiations. He needs to make his decisions for his country. Zelenskiy is a wartime leader, we see a real wartime leader there. If he chooses to say, "No, I'm not relinquishing these currently occupied lands," then I'm behind President Zelenskiy in that.

RFE/RL: Is there a potential risk that Putin could turn Ukraine into a European version of Syria?

Breedlove: Russia's way of fighting when they can't win outright is exactly what you saw in eastern Syria. It's exactly what you see in Mariupol. If I can't defeat your military, I'm going to murder and terrorize your civilians.

And one of the things they do is weaponizing refugee flows; they've got [millions of] people headed into Europe. And remember what happened with the refugee flows before in Europe, it created all manner of political problems, dropped a couple of very important and strong governments. And so by making them the problem of all the nations of NATO along the border, this is the new Russian way of war. And we cannot allow it to stand.

RFE/RL: Is there a danger that as the conflict drags on that the rest of the world could become desensitized, paying less attention to what is going on in Ukraine?

Breedlove: I do believe that people are getting -- the one word is tired. The other is incensed. The other would be angry at what they're seeing play out. If you've been watching the polls in America, it's up to now 62 percent of Americans believe we should be doing more in Ukraine.

And that number has been rising because of the atrocities that we're seeing every single day, the absolute heinous criminal activity of Mr. Putin and his forces. We're watching it play out on TV every day, and the American people are getting tired of it. And I would guess that that's happening in other places around the world as well. So, I do believe that, that we are not going to get desensitized, we're just going to get more angry.

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04/07/2022 Thursday Day 43

04/06/2022 Wednesday Day 42

04/05/2022 Tuesday Day 41

Systems Perspective 05/05/2022

During the Soviet offensive in March and April 1944, the Ternopil was encircled. In March 1944, the city was declared a fortified place (Gates to the Reich) by Adolf Hitler, to be defended until the last round was fired. The stiff German resistance caused extensive use of heavy artillery by the Red Army on March 7 - 8 resulting in the complete destruction of the city and killing of nearly all German occupants. Unlike many other occasions, where the Germans had practised a scorched earth policy during their withdrawal from territories of the Soviet Union, the devastation was caused directly by the hostilities. Finally, Ternopol was occupied by the Red Army on April 15 ,1944. After the second Soviet occupation, 85% of the city's living quarters were destroyed.

The horror of war and what happens in war is a terrifying fact. That is why war should always be avoided. Massing 200,000 Russian soldiers on the border of Ukraine and then having a 40 mile convoy sit for weeks is when the actual war crimes against humanity began. Every country has a ground and air defense zone that should never be penetrated. Once war breaks out it is over and horror and terror is the sad result. This history will be written for hundreds of years. Defending the Ukrainian border would not have been a war, it would have been a massive defense before a war could actually start. This war was allowed to start by inaction of NATO, the US, and the UK which had written and unwritten agreements with Ukraine.

The following is a severe assessment but it must be stated.

It is clear that NATO, US, and UK do not see any foreign policy self interest in having Ukraine stay independent. From their perspective there is nothing in Ukraine for them and they see no disadvantage if Ukraine is eliminated and consumed by Russia to just become Russians. It is only a population of 44 million people that in the previous century everyone just called Russians. The cultural genocide from the last century did not happen but it does not matter. Through the centuries Ukraine has been conquered by Russian, Polish, German, and other armies. It is possible that the people from Europe seeking freedom and liberty in the US were inspired by the plight of the Ukrainians through the centuries, the fight is too hard and pointless, just flee away from the maniacs. Ukrainians have talked about Democracy in the abstract for generations. Perhaps the source and inspiration for Democracy owes its debt to the the plight of Ukraine and their long held dreams of Democracy. However, dreams of freedom, liberty, democracy do not align with todays system of extreme self interest, the same self interest that has driven NATO, US, and UK policy and actions towards Ukraine since 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine and split the country. The same self interest that allowed a 200,000 man army to invade and devastate a country and a people.

04/04/2022 Monday Day 40

04/03/2022 Sunday Day 39

04/02/2022 Saturday Day 38

04/01/2022 Friday Day 37

Systems Assessment 04/01/2022

Ukrainian President Zelensky has clearly stated that it is time for a new approach to ensure global security. The wars of the past prompted the previous generations to create institutions that should protect us from war, but unfortunately they stopped working. The Ukrainians and the world see it. So, we need new institutions and new alliances that are a coalition of peacekeeping countries. This is a direct challenge to NATO. This new Alliance needs to do far more to counter the carnage and devastation by the Russian invasion. [16]

NATO faces both moral and strategic realities in Ukraine with 4 million refugees, 10 million displaced people, and massive destruction of infrastructure and cities totalling over $2 trillion dollars as of March 22, 2022. The NATO, and US obligation to protect Ukraine is clear because Ukraine answered calls for support in military operations in the Balkans, Afghanistan, and Iraq. [16]

NATO’s advantages over Russia are overwhelming. Its force includes 3.5 million active duty military and civilian personnel, the allied defense budgets collectively exceed $1.2 trillion and include the world’s most advanced weapons systems. Russia, fields only 900,000 military personnel, its budget totals between $150 billion and $180 billion, and Russia’s economy is barely one twenty-fifth the size of that of NATO allies and partners. [16]

The Alliance has held back because of fear of Putin’s threats of escalation. His nuclear threats has led allies to remove their forces from Ukraine, convinced them that a no-fly zone should be off the table, and even blocked the transfer of Polish MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine. If Putin achieves victory in Ukraine, he will pursue his empire ambitions and move against other European nations, possibly even those in NATO, as he has repeatedly warned. The more the Alliance backs away from exercising its power to help defend Ukraine now, the more Putin is emboldened and the more NATO’s credibility will be lost in the eyes of its front line Central and Eastern European member states. NATO needs to ensure Putin’s defeat in Ukraine. [16]

President Zelensky’s plea is from a Democratic European nation having its sovereignty attacked by massive military force, something the world has not witnessed since World War II. The outcome of this conflict will define not only the future of European security but also NATO’s relevance as an institution. [16]

History is moved by cause and effect. The cause of this war is the desire to rebuild an empire that has been clearly stated repeatedly over several years. The effect of not challenging this vision is continued empire expansion by any means including war and cultural genocide.

03/31/2022 Thursday Day 36

Systems Assessment 03/31/22

Russia is not negotiating in good faith. Russia has invaded Ukraine and Ukraine has been in defense mode. Ukraine was denied entry into NATO so an invasion of Ukraine into Russia can not be interpreted as a NATO invasion. There comes a time when the best defense is a strong offense. It is unclear if the war will find its way into Russia. Just like there are Russians in Ukraine, there are Ukrainians in Russia.

03/30/2022 Wednesday Day 35

Systems Assessment 03/30/22

The Russo-Ukrainian War is an ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine that began in February 2014 following the Ukrainian Revolution of Dignity. It initially focused on Crimea and parts of the Donbas that were internationally recognised as part of Ukraine. The first eight years of the war included the Russian annexation of Crimea (2014) and the war in Donbas (2014 - present) between Ukraine and Russia. The Ukrainians lost 14,000 people in this phase of the war. Following a Russian military build up on the Russia Ukraine border from late 2021, the conflict expanded when Russia launched a full scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

US policy was set by the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances and the US was providing military equipment to Ukraine in 2019. Trump as part of some bizarre internal political strategy attempted to blackmail the Ukrainian Government and President Zelensky in 2019 and denied the Ukrainians weapons unless certain statements were release about would be President Biden and his family. This action was effectively aiding and abetting Russia in times of a war that the US was associated with and bound by an agreement with Ukraine.

Trump was impeached but never arrested, tried in a court of law, and held accountable. In years to come when children study what caused the massive invasion by Russia of Ukraine, Trump will be a key figure as one of the causes of the war. He enabled Putin and continues to enable Putin even in March 30, 2022. This does not let NATO, the UK, and the USA off the hook with their poor policy choices, which enabled Putin to expand on and act on his vision of a new Russian Empire, which he disclosed for years. It also does not let the people of Russia off the hook who accepted the grand vision of a new Russian Empire. This is a very sad point in history but not new. Unfortunately in the last century the Germans were fed a vision of empire and greedily accepted that vision. It is a constant of history and care must always be taken to ensure such toxic visions do not take root. It looks like this generation is once again about to live through a very difficult lesson.

03/29/2022 Tuesday Day 34

03/28/2022 Monday Day 33

03/27/2022 Sunday Day 32

Systems Assessment 03/26/22

While President Biden stated that the struggle between Democracy and Autocracy will take years, the Ukrainians do not have years. They are lucky if they can hold out the next few months without the weapons they are requesting. President Zelensky was very clear that President Biden, the US, NATO, and the leaders of the EU know this reality. The Russian army has pulled back to defend their artillery positions. They are getting ready to bomb Ukrainian cities into oblivion as the West watches.

The invasion of Poland in 1939 was an attack on the Republic of Poland by Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union and it marked the beginning of World War II. The German invasion began on September 01, 1939, one week after the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact between Germany and the Soviet Union, and one day after the Supreme Soviet of the Soviet Union had approved the pact. The Soviets invaded Poland on September 17, 1939. The campaign ended on October 6, 1939 with Germany and the Soviet Union dividing and annexing the whole of Poland under the terms of the German-Soviet Frontier Treaty.

German forces invaded Poland from the north, south, and west the morning after the Gleiwitz incident. Slovak military forces advanced alongside the Germans in northern Slovakia. As the Wehrmacht advanced, Polish forces withdrew from their forward bases of operation close to the German Poland border to establish more defense lines to the east. After the mid September Polish defeat in the Battle of the Bzura, the Germans gained an undisputed advantage. Polish forces then withdrew to the southeast where they prepared for a long defence of the Romanian Bridgehead and awaited expected support and relief from France and the United Kingdom. Those two countries had pacts with Poland and had declared war on Germany on September 03, 1939; in the end their aid to Poland was very limited. France invaded a small part of Germany in the Saar Offensive, and the Polish army was effectively defeated even before the British Expeditionary Force could be transported to Europe, with the bulk of the BEF in France by the end of September.

On September 17, 1939, the Soviet Red Army invaded Eastern Poland, the territory beyond the Curzon Line that fell into the Soviet sphere of influence according to the secret protocol of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. This made the Polish plan of defence obsolete. Facing a second front, the Polish government concluded the defence of the Romanian Bridgehead was no longer feasible and ordered an emergency evacuation of all troops to neutral Romania. On October 06, 1939, following the Polish defeat at the Battle of Kock, German and Soviet forces gained full control over Poland. The success of the invasion marked the end of the Second Polish Republic, though Poland never formally surrendered.

On October 08, 1939, after an initial period of military administration, Germany directly annexed western Poland and the former Free City of Danzig and placed the remaining block of territory under the administration of the newly established General Government. The Soviet Union incorporated its newly acquired areas into its constituent Byelorussian and Ukrainian republics, and immediately started a campaign of Sovietization. In the aftermath of the invasion, a collective of underground resistance organizations formed the Polish Underground State within the territory of the former Polish state. Many of the military exiles who managed to escape Poland subsequently joined the Polish Armed Forces in the West, an armed force loyal to the Polish government in exile. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Poland.

03/26/2022 Saturday Day 31

Systems Assessment 03/26/22

The Ukrainians do not have years. They are lucky if they can hold out the next few months without the weapons they are requesting. President Zelensky was very clear that President Biden, the US, NATO, and the leaders of the EU know this reality. The Russian army has pulled back to defend their artillery positions. They are getting ready to bomb Ukrainian cities into oblivion as the West watches.

US President Joe Biden ended the speech in Warsaw Poland with for Gods sake this man [Putin] cannot remain in power. This is a direct call for regime change in Russia. In Ukraine people are very aware of their history of grandmothers in Russian Gulags and young people that have died in the invasion of 2014. This speech is an inflection point in the war. Russia and Putin have been put on notice that there will be regime change in Russia. It does not matter that the White House released a statement backing off on the original words spoken by President Biden.

It was a remarkable statement that would reverse stated US policy, directly countering claims from senior administration officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who have insisted regime change is not on the table. It went further than even US presidents during the Cold War, and immediately reverberated around the world as world leaders, diplomats, and foreign policy experts sought to determine what Biden said, what it meant and, if he didn’t mean it, why he said it. Shortly after the speech, a White House official sought to clarify the comments. “The president’s point was that Putin cannot be allowed to exercise power over his neighbors or the region. He was not discussing Putin’s power in Russia or regime change,” the official said.

The difference is that this war is worse than any event during the cold war, even the Cuban missile crisis because this is a massive shooting war that has destabilized the world.

03/25/2022 Friday Day 30

03/24/2022 Thursday Day 29

03/23/2022 Wednesday Day 28

03/22/2022 Tuesday Day 27

Transcript

https://transcripts.cnn.com/show/ampr/date/2022-03-22/segment/01

*** EXTRACT START ***

Interview With Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry PESKOV;
Interview With Bellingcat Executive Director Christo Grozev;
Interview With Washington Post Global Opinions Writer Jason Rezaian. (not included below)

Aired 2-3p ET Aired March 22, 2022 - 14:00 ET THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED. [14:00:00]

CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN INTERNATIONAL HOST: Hello, everyone, and welcome to AMANPOUR. Here's what's coming up. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

AMANPOUR (voice-over): The Kremlin's view of the war, an exclusive interview with Dmitry PESKOV, President Putin's chief spokesperson and close confidant. He spent more than 20 years at the Russian president's side. Then: in a war of information, getting the facts with the Russia investigator for open source intelligence site Bellingcat. Plus: JASON REZAIAN, JOURNALIST DETAINED IN IRAN: It is very, very fishy. And I think, by keeping it quiet, we haven't done her any favors.

AMANPOUR: Jason Rezaian, "The Washington Post" journalist formally detained in Iran, talks to Hari Sreenivasan about the case of the American basketball star Brittney Griner, who has been held in Russian custody since mid-February. (END VIDEOTAPE)

AMANPOUR: Welcome to the program, everyone. I'm Christiane AMANPOUR in London. As the war in Ukraine rages into its fourth week, a huge question remains: What is Russian President Vladimir Putin thinking? What is the endgame? If anyone knows, it is my first guest tonight, Dmitry PESKOV, who has served as Putin's chief spokesman for more than two decades. And he's been at Putin's side throughout his rise to power. He is a close confidant. It's a relationship that's made him also a high-profile target for Western sanctions. And Dmitry PESKOV is joining me now from Moscow for this exclusive interview.

Dmitry PESKOV, welcome to the program. Can I start by asking you -- we're, as I said, nearly four weeks into this war. You, by all intelligence, I guess, experts, are somewhat stalled, certainly around Kyiv and in other parts. There seems to be low morale amount amongst your troops. There seems to be equipment breakdowns and command-and-control issues. My first question is, what does President Putin think he has achieved in Ukraine to date?

DMITRY PESKOV, KREMLIN PRESS SECRETARY: Well, first of all, not yet. He hasn't achieved yet. And we're speaking about special military operation that is going on. And it is going on strictly in accordance with the plans and with purposes that were established beforehand. And, of course, well, first of all, I think we have to speak about the reasons for this operation, I mean, because speaking about the morale against -- amongst our military, of course, you operate data and information coming from different media and from your intelligence. But you would probably have to doubt this information. You have to doubt it, and you have to think twice whether it is true or not.

AMANPOUR: Well, here's the thing, Mr. PESKOV. Intelligence that really predicted the invasion turned out to be true, despite what you all told us from the Kremlin. So, let's just get past that. We have also heard civilians and journalists who've seen Russian troops and who've recounted. But that's -- that's -- be that as it may, when you say he hasn't achieved, President Putin hasn't achieved yet, what do you foresee? Because this was going to be, according to your own side, in the press, in the state- sponsored media in Russia, a pretty quick operation. It was even suggested that, within a couple of days, that -- quote, unquote -- "Ukraine would return to" -- quote, unquote -- "mother Russia." What has gone wrong? And what do you see for the next phase of this?

PESKOV: Well, of course, no one would think from the very beginning about a couple of days. It's a serious operation with serious purposes. And I think, if we try to remember those purposes, those main goals of the operation, it's to get rid of the military potential of Ukraine. And, actually, this is why our military are targeting only military goals and military objects on the territory of Ukraine, not civil ones. Russian military are not hitting civil aims, civil targets. [14:05:00] Number two is to ensure that Ukraine changes from anti-Russian center to a neutral country. And, in this sense, let's remember that, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, actually, the neutral status was fixed in a declaration of independence of the country. Number three, to get rid of the nationalist battalions and nationalist regiments who are now actually, who are now opposing Russian troops, who are now trying to cover themselves under the shield of civilians, thus paving a way for civil casualties.

AMANPOUR: Dmitry...

PESKOV: And also...

AMANPOUR: Yes?

PESKOV: And, also -- I beg your pardon, if you let me -- and also to ensure -- to ensure that Ukraine acknowledges, acknowledges the fact that Crimea is also an untakable part of Russia, and that People's Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk are already independent states, that Ukraine actually has lost them after the coup that happened in 2014.

AMANPOUR: OK. So, basically, you are putting and laying out the original demands from President Putin, which I understand seem not to have changed. Let us talk about civilian infrastructure. Look, I know you guys say that you're not targeting civilians. And you have just told me it was a special military operation, which is, I know, what the Kremlin military censorship demands. It is a war and it is an invasion. And we're all watching it all over global television, no matter what you tell your own people. There are so many civilian targets that it's hard to count them right now. And you may deny it, but even the Chinese, Dmitry, even the Chinese, who are your friends, have expressed a very, very deep concern about civilian targets. Let me just read what the Foreign Ministry has said. It is "deeply grieved to see the conflict between Ukraine and Russia and highly concerned about the damage done to civilians." They are very, very concerned. Those are your friends, the Chinese, not weirdo journalists or anybody who's actually watching it with their own eyes and can tell the truth. So, what is -- the real question is, what is President Putin's strategic goal in blasting the civilian infrastructure of places like Mariupol, which we are watching turn to smithereens, for the last several weeks now? What's the strategic goal?

PESKOV: Well, the strategic goal is to clear up the Mariupol from nationalistic regiments who are there, and in a heavily covered environment, and so -- and, by the way, they're simply not letting people out from the city, from the town. And this is a problem, because now we're receiving lots of refugees coming from there. And they simply tell us -- they're eyewitnesses. They simply tell us that they were used like a shield. They were used under heavy bombardment. And then those nationalists, they were -- they were killing people who would want to leave the city. And now the main goal is to get rid of those bad guys there.

AMANPOUR: Dmitry, we also have reporters who are quite close to Mariupol. And they are watching, because, actually, some civilians are getting out right now. And they obviously tell a completely different story, that they have been prevented from getting out. And we know that any attempt to establish any kind of humanitarian corridor has collapsed under the weight of Russian shelling, even when you give assurances. There is no food going in. And your own Defense Ministry said these last few days that only if Mariupol surrenders will they allow food, water medicine to go in there. I have -- I have covered a siege, probably the longest in modern history, the siege of Sarajevo. So I know the playbook very, very well. So, the question is, why are they then coming out and telling -- telling us that? But, also, there are reports that Russia is taking civilians and citizens from Mariupol, taking them over to Russia, and, in some cases, putting them way out in the hinterlands and to work, in perhaps work camps, I don't know, but putting them to work.

PESKOV: No, this is not true. This is not true. It's a fake. It's a fake. And then -- well, believe me, we're all living, well, not under the -- not only under the circumstances of military operation. We're living in a severe informational war, in a war of fakes. [14:10:00] And then -- well, you have to -- you have to know the situation from the outside -- or from the inside. And, sometimes, it's very hard to understand what is going on there. So, and -- if you are a journalist. And we're receiving operation there from our military -- information. And then we know what is being said by the people who are -- who are, well, led by those nationalist regiments to leave the city. And then -- so, it's very desperate stories that they are telling us.

AMANPOUR: Why do you think most Russians who are able to get out of these horrendously besieged areas and horrendously shelled areas, why do you think they're fleeing west, they're trying to get out to other parts of Ukraine and to the west, rather than fleeing to Russia, if -- if they feel so safe with you? Why do you think that's happening?

PESKOV: Part of them is going eastwards. Part of them is going westwards. It's a choice of people. And no one is making any obstacles.

AMANPOUR: Let me put it this way, then. Let's just say you believe all of this. You have just talked about a disinformation war. Russia is known to have perfected the disinformation war ever since it was the Soviet Union. Russian propaganda is incredibly effective, incredibly effective. Let's just say that your people believe it. Let's just say that they believe all this stuff that you have said as a reason for this war, for this invasion, whatever you call it, special military operation. How then do you -- how then do you square the circle that something like 90 percent of the Ukrainian people, asked, believe that they will win, and that barely a single one of them has collaborated, has surrendered, has shown anything other than a fierce patriotic fervor to hold onto their country and to hold onto their sovereignty and their Ukraine? Are you surprised? Is the president, President Putin, surprised by that?

PESKOV: Well, first of all, you are mistaken. There are Ukrainians who are collaborating. There are Ukrainians who are in cooperation with our military. There are Ukrainians who would like to avoid any casualties and who are in contacts with our military, whether they like it or don't. But they understand, because it was declared that, if you don't -- if you don't aim our -- target our military, if you're not trying to kill them, no one is going to hurt you. We will hurt, but we will hurt those nationalistic Nazis. We will hurt Nazis, not ordinary people and civil people. It is forbidden to target civil people for our military. So, and then, partly, partly, they are in cooperation with our guys. So, you are simply mistaken. And speaking about propaganda, starting from a great school of the Soviet Union, I would say that masterpieces of propaganda that we're witnessing now in the West is a good school for us. And we're not that good pupils. I mean, I can even ask you why -- why, for example, CNN is that single- sided in covering this story.

AMANPOUR: Well, you lead me then to -- I wasn't going to get there. But if you would allow journalists to come into Russia, and actually report this in a truthful way, rather than heavily military censorship, we would be able to report much more of your side. But let's park that for the moment, and let's carry on. President Putin -- first and foremost, you have seen it, Dmitry. I know that you're watching international news. I know that you watch it, whatever the Russian people see. You have seen the Ukrainian people refuse to surrender. Every single time your forces issue an ultimatum, not an invitation, an ultimatum, they simply refuse to surrender. And I'm not talking about troops. I'm talking about old men and women. I'm talking about young people. I'm talking about kids. They just won't surrender. This is something that has surprised and impressed, actually, the whole world. So, let me just quickly ask you again, what is the endgame? Is it to occupy Ukraine? Can you actually do it with the number of troops that you have? Do you really think that, even if you win a battle here or there, that you can win a long war?

PESKOV: Occupation is not among the aims of the operation that were stated.

AMANPOUR: Right. OK. Well, that's that answer then. Let me ask you, again, about -- we're trying to get to the truth, right, Dmitry? So, I'm going to -- actually, let me -- let me just ask. Do you see President Putin often? I mean, you're his spokesperson. You -- you know, we know that you're obviously a close official, a close confidant. Do you see him often? [14:15:05] When was the last time you saw him?

PESKOV: Well, we are in contact on daily basis.

AMANPOUR: Face to face? Sorry. It's just interesting.

PESKOV: Sometimes -- sometimes face to face, sometimes on the telephone. It's -- it doesn't matter.

AMANPOUR: I want to ask you this question about the Ukrainians, because several analysts are watching. And they have listened to what President Putin has said about mother Russia, about a fraternal Ukraine or a Ukraine that doesn't exist and has no right to exist. And they're wondering whether the president is getting very angry with the Ukrainians. They're wondering whether there's a -- there's sort of a punishment against the Ukrainians being leveled. I spoke with the Finnish president, Sauli Niinisto, who, as you know, has met many times with President Putin. And he described to me what he felt was a sense of growing, I'm going to use -- well, hatred is what he said, by President Putin for the Ukrainian people, for the Ukrainian leadership now.

PESKOV: No, he's not angry with Ukrainians. And no one here in Russia is angry with Ukrainians. He's angry with the -- those people in Ukraine who want to be part of NATO and who want to deploy nuclear -- American nuclear missiles on their territory. And he is angry with those people in Ukraine who forbids people to speak Russian in their country, including those Russians who are living in Ukraine for ages. He is angry with those people in Ukraine who carries symbols of Nazis on the streets of Kyiv and Lviv. And he's crazy with the -- he's angry with the Ukrainians and those people in Ukraine who would want to -- who would want to speak with the world, with Minsk negotiations group, years and years, without implementing any obligations. It's a fact...

AMANPOUR: Well, look, President Putin tore up the Minsk Accords by deciding to do what he wanted to do. And, as you know, Zelenskyy has already said several times in the last few weeks that he knows there is no NATO on the table for Ukraine. So, all the other things are presumably negotiable, what you have just said about neo- Nazis and signs and languages. But you know also that neo-Nazis or ultranationalists, which do exist there, are a very, very small group that barely won any percentage in recent elections. So, it's kind of a straw man. But you mentioned nuclear. You know better than I do that Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in 1994 to Russia, and Russia was meant to defend it, according to the agreement in Budapest -- Bucharest or Budapest -- I'm sorry, I can't remember -- not to attack it. But it's President Putin who has put the nuclear card on the table. Can you tell me and tell the world whether you believe President Putin has tried to scare the rest of the world and Ukraine by mentioning the nuclear option? Can you tell me that? And can you tell me that he would never use a nuclear weapon?

PESKOV: Two things. I would disagree with you, firstly. President Putin was not the one who ruined Minsk Accords.

AMANPOUR: OK.

PESKOV: That was Ukrainian side. This is number one. Number two, Ukrainian, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, handed in all the nuclear weapons to the Russian Federation. But, unfortunately, in the year of 2022, just a couple of months ago, in Munich conference, President Zelenskyy started to speak about possibility of generating nuclear arms on the territory of Ukraine. And, most probably, you have witnessed that. (CROSSTALK)

AMANPOUR: I was actually there, Dmitry.

PESKOV: Yes.

AMANPOUR: And I actually interviewed him. I do remember him saying: Look what we have got for giving up our nuclear weapons. And the real issue is now what do you expect other countries to do when you ask them to give up their nuclear weapons? Because territorial integrity and sovereignty has been violated. Again, even your friends the Chinese have said they respect every nation's territorial integrity and sovereignty, including Ukraine's. Could I quickly ask you, though? I need to ask you this, because the world is afraid, and I want to know whether Putin intends the world to be afraid of the nuclear option. [14:20:01] Would he use it?

PESKOV: President Putin intends to -- intends to make the world listen to and understand our concerns. We have been trying to convey our concerns to the world, to Europe, to the United States, for a couple of decades, but no one would listen to us. And before it is too late, it was a decision to start -- to launch a special operation, military operation, to get rid of entire Russia that was created next to our borders.

AMANPOUR: What? To get rid of Russia?

PESKOV: Anti-Russia, because Ukraine -- actually, Ukraine started to be -- it was formed by the Western countries, anti-Russia.

AMANPOUR: Oh, OK. OK.

PESKOV: This is the problem.

AMANPOUR: Look, Ukraine is a country, sovereign. It's recognized by the United Nations. It's been around for a very, very long time. But I just want to know. I want to ask you again, is President Putin -- because, again, the Finnish president said to me that when he asked Putin directly about this, because President Putin has laid that card on the label, President Putin said that, if anybody tries to stop him, very bad things will happen. And I want to know whether you are convinced or confident that your boss will not use that option.

PESKOV: Well, we have a concept of domestic security, and, well, it's public. You can read all the reasons for nuclear arms to be used. So, if it is an existential threat for our country, then it can be used, in accordance with our concept.

AMANPOUR: Well...

PESKOV: There are no other reasons that were mentioned in that text.

AMANPOUR: So, you are basically saying only an existential threat to your country. I still don't know that I have got a full answer from you. And I just -- I'm just going to assume that President Putin wants to scare the world and keep the world on the tenterhooks. What about chemical and biological weapons? The United States has said that they have -- they believe that there's intelligence that a frustrated President Putin, lack of progress on the ground, may be preparing to use chemical or even biological weapons against Ukrainian troops, civilians or its leadership.

PESKOV: Well, unfortunately, we have a very strong reason to believe and a very strong evidence that United States have been developing biolabs programs on the territory of various countries around the Russian Federation, including the territory of Ukraine. And this is quite -- quite a sophisticated and quite a dangerous biolab program that was led, top secret, by American specialists.

AMANPOUR: OK.

PESKOV: This is reality that we're facing.

AMANPOUR: Well...

PESKOV: And when it comes to biological and chemical weapons, we don't have these weapons anymore. In the year of 2017, if I'm not mistaken, it was destroyed completely, in accordance with international agreements.

AMANPOUR: Dmitry PESKOV, the United States and allies completely deny that. Basically, there are no Ukrainian biological weapons laboratories, not near Russia's border, not anywhere, says the U.N. ambassador, only public health facilities proudly supported and recognized by the U.S. government, the World Health Organization, and other governments and international institutions. They believe this is part of your disinformation campaign, which confuses issues. Can I ask you the following? Before the invasion, yourself and several other high-ranked Russian officials denied to the whole world that there was going to be anything like this and accused all the rest of the world of being hysterical. In November, you responded yourself, saying: "Such headlines are nothing more than empty, unfounded escalation of tension. Russia poses no threat to anyone." Your E.U. ambassador, Chizov, eight days before the invasion says: "I can assure, as far as Russia is concerned, there will be no attack this Wednesday. There will be no escalation next week or the week after or next month." And your deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, shortly after negotiations with the Americans and other side in January said the following. And here's his sound bite. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) SERGEI RYABKOV, RUSSIAN DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER: I do believe that there is no risk of a larger-scale war to start to unfold in Europe or elsewhere. [14:25:02] We do not want, and we will not take any action of aggressive character. We will not attack strike, "invade" -- quote, unquote -- whatever, Ukraine. (END VIDEO CLIP)

AMANPOUR: Dmitry, those are emphatic denials of any such intention very close to the day of the invasion, and as what now turns out to be very accurate intelligence was telling everybody that this was going to happen. So, I guess I can't ask you why the lies, but what I want to ask you is, after all those lies, how do you expect Russia at the highest levels to be taken seriously now? What can one believe about what's coming up next and about what you all say about what -- what's next in terms of negotiations or the situation on the ground?

PESKOV: Well, yes, we have said it. And we have said that hoping, hoping that Ukraine will never get prepared for strike against Donbass. Yes, we have said that hoping that, at the end, that, at the end, there will be a breakthrough in Normandy process, Normandy format. And -- but, after that, in a couple of days, there was perfectly clear for us, there was perfectly clear for our military specialists that Ukraine was going to launch an offensive against Donbass, that Ukraine, by the way, before the end of the operation, Ukraine have concentrated more than 120,000 military personnel at the border, at the division line. And there were clear signs that an offensive was going to -- to start. So, this was the reason. This was the reason. Like elsewhere, like everyone in the world, until the last moment, we never wanted to believe -- we never wanted to believe that -- to that grave sense, no one would listen to our concerns. No one would warn Ukrainians not to do that. No one would push Ukrainians towards the solution within a framework of Normandy process. But no one -- no one did that.

AMANPOUR: OK. Well, there are all these foreign leaders. We know that both presidents went to France to talk about this. None of the intelligence that we heard suggested any such buildup by Ukrainian forces, in fact, the opposite, with President Zelenskyy saying, no, no, no, no, it's not going to happen, stay calm. In fact, Western intelligence was concerned there wouldn't even be a defense from Ukraine, that they hadn't even been prepared for what was coming their way. Are you, is the president surprised at the level of defense and resistance by the Ukrainian forces?

PESKOV: Well, near the Donbass, actually, the level of resistance in Donbass shows that they were quite well-prepared, but they were not well- prepared for the defense. They were preparing for offensive operations. This is the case.

AMANPOUR: OK. All right. Well, here's the thing. They have held you off for nearly four months -- four weeks. Who knows what's going to happen in the future, but you are a much more powerful military. So that constitutes resistance and defense in most -- in most understandings of that. Can I finally ask you? Alexey Navalny has been sentenced, I believe, to nine years in maximum security. People on the streets of Russia have been hoovered up and detained somewhere in the region of, according to the CIA, some 14,000 to 15,000 Russians. You have prevented independent news organizations from calling it a war, from describing anything about it, other than the Defense Ministry line and the Kremlin line. My question is, what are you so afraid of, of Navalny, of journalists, of the truth? What is there to fear?

PESKOV: No. Well, Navalny -- Navalny is a prisoner. He's a prisoner. He had his first sentence. Now he's got his second one. And he's blamed -- and it is proven by the prosecutor's office that he's blamed for fraud. So, it's purely economical crime. He was collecting money by his foundation from citizens, regular citizens of Russia, and also from abroad, and he was spending part of that money for his personal purposes. This is fraud in our country. And he was supposed to be punished. [14:30:06] And no one is afraid of him. It's -- if people is a criminal, he should be in prison. This is the same thing that is happening in the United States and in European countries.

AMANPOUR: I know you say that. I know the prosecution says that, but the people who allegedly claim that he was taking their money and using it for himself then said on the stand they had been forced to make -- to make those testimonies. So, listen, Dmitry PESKOV, I appreciate you being with us. It gives us something of an understanding from your side. And I hope we can continue the conversation as we watch this war unfold. Thank you so much.

PESKOV: Yes, I would be pleased to do that.

AMANPOUR: My next guest is one of the leaders of the open-source investigative organization known as Bellingcat. The site gathers and verifies information from public data to find things that others don't -- often miss rather. You may recall, they work in Syria where they uncovered evidence chemical weapons attacks by President Assad against his own people. And now, they're tirelessly working to track, verify or debunk information surrounding the war in Ukraine. Christo Grozev is Bellingcat's executive director and lead Russian investigator, and he's joining me now. Christo, welcome to the program. Obviously, Russia is what you work on most, and particularly now. What would you say you got from what my conversation with Dmitry PESKOV right now about what's going on the ground?

CHRISTO GROZEV, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, BELLINGCAT: Well, first thing I got is that you have extreme patience, and I admire you. I would not have been able to sustain that conversation. But what I understand is that Mr. PESKOV is probably not really aware of what Russia's strategy is and what Russia's revised strategy after the initial failures is because his answers did not make any sense. And I do think that that reflects a broader understanding that only a very small group of people close to Putin, most militarized (INAUDIBLE) or power elite are aware of what he thinks, and probably that is the extent of Mr. PESKOV. But what we do is we try to track the evidence of war crimes or evidence of civilian harm. We focused nearly 100 percent of Bellingcat's activity since the start of the war into that. We sometimes divert into debunking the random claim that Russia puts or Ukraine puts out, regardless which country puts forward unsupported claims. But essentially, all after our efforts are going to focused on chronically logging and preserving for judicial investigations, evidence of civilian harm. So, that's what we do now.

AMANPOUR: So, let me -- before I get to those details, can I just ask you whether you also see what American intelligence seems to be seeing, that they say somewhere, you know, between seven and maybe 9,000 Russian soldiers have been killed. You know, they're also suggesting that a number of generals have been killed. Are you able at all to open-source or geolocate any of that?

GROZEV: This is not our main activity. We did start at the beginning tracking casualties on the Russian side. But we have to focus fully on tracking civilian harm. The numbers that are put forward by the Ukrainian side, which is about 12,500 are a bit high based on what we see. We do see numbers that are more in the 8,000 to 10,000 range. And we understand that domestically, within the Russian military command, they're also acknowledging about 5 ,000 deaths at this point. This comes from several sources inside Russia to us. And I do think that 8,000 to 9,000 is the right number at this point.

AMANPOUR: Can you talk to me about the civilian targeting? I mean, the Russians are absolutely clear in everything they tell the world, we do not target civilian infrastructure. And yet, we see before our eyes what's happened to Mariupol, what civilian targets are hit in other cities, including in Kyiv, and, you know, the number of dead and wounded. But there's a very sophisticated way that they have of saying, well, this person is a fake and that person is a fake, and it was all actors and it was all staged. Can you get beyond that given that there's not many independent journalists in Mariupol?

GROZEV: We try to. So far, we've gathered more than 400 incidents of civilian harm. Of those about 10 percent, 40 of them represent egregious civilian harm incidents, which could have been prevented, should have been prevented with care and compliance with military rules of engagement. What we're seeing is a neglect on the Russian side of the traditional military rules of engagement that are meant to avoid civilian casualties. Every war will have collateral damage of civilian casualties. What is particular here is that the Russian side does not make the effort. And one makes -- one may believe that actually is part of their strategy to terrorize the population in order for pressure to build up on the government to come to some sort of a compromise with Kremlin. [14:35:00] But what we see is not only evidence of targets that have zero military infrastructure importance such as schools, hospitals and theaters, as we have seen recently, administrative buildings, but we also see some explanation for why that is happening. There are a lot of intercepted phone calls that are being published by the Ukrainian Security Services and we were able to verify a small portion of that, the ones where they publish also the phone numbers of the calling parties. And we hear a lot of Russian officers and soldiers talking to their loved ones in Russia complaining about the plight that they're in, and actually, informing their wives, of their spouses that they have been given instructions to ignore the duty of care to civilians, to actually not even pay attention to whom they're shooting as long as somebody is in their line of view. And this would explain also the total neglect for civilian casualties when artillery or other missile shelling is taken -- is implemented.

AMANPOUR: Well, that is quite extraordinary information to be able to have. Just very briefly and finally, you did a lot of investigation, Bellingcat did, in Syria and you saw the pattern. Are we seeing some of the same pattern now?

GROZEV: Yes. We're seeing a pattern of, well, first of all, disinformation and continuous industrial scale fabrication of fakes. What we're seeing is a slightly different direction of the fakes coming from the Russian government. They're mostly meant for domestic audience. They kind of have given up on trying to convince the world. They did make some ludicrous claims such as the Russian ambassador to the Netherlands showed up on a program on Dutch TV and claimed that the two different women who were victims in the Mariupol Maternity Hospital, one of whom died, he showed the photographs of these completely two different women and claimed that both of them are a crisis actor, the same one at that. So, they're doing some ill-advised international attempts with most of the -- most of this information is targeting a domestic audience. What we see is also terrorizing civilian areas that have a particular emotional effect such as hospitals, and I think that that may be part of the strategy to terrorize the population as opposed to an incident.

AMANPOUR: Thank you for being with us. Christo Grozev, thank you very much, of Bellingcat. Too often, ordinary citizens get caught up in the days' geopolitical dramas. Take the recently released Anglo-Iranian aid worker Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe who was held for six years held by Tehran and the American basketball star Brittney Griner who is being detained right now in Russia since its war on Ukraine, rather a little before. Our next guest has experienced these cruel tactics firsthand. Jason Rezaian writes for the "Washington Post Global Opinions" and while serving as the paper's correspondent in Teheran, he spent 544 days unjustly imprisoned on trumped up charges by Iranian authorities. And here he with Hari Sreenivasan discussing how to help those who are too often used as bargaining chips.

*** EXTRACT END - show continued and transcript continued with other related topics ***

03/21/2022 Monday Day 26

03/20/2022 Sunday Day 25

Systems Assessment 03/20/2022 Day 25

It is clear that Ukraine should be provided with the MIG-29 aircraft offered by Poland.

03/19/2022 Saturday Day 24

Systems Assessment 03/19/2022 Day 21

Some are suggesting that this is the start of World War III. Others are suggesting that this is the start of World War 2.5, which is really World War III but without nuclear weapons. Both are completely wrong. This is a continuation of World War II.

When World War II ended the agreements in Yalta drew artificial boundaries and tossed whole countries into the Russian Empire known as the Soviet Union. When the Soviet Union collapsed many of those countries regained their independence and were able to join NATO and become part of the EU. Ukraine was unable to do that and continued to be a colony of Russia. While it is true that Russia shares many cultural elements of many countries in the region including Ukraine, there is one massive difference, Russia replaced its totalitarian rule of the Czars with totalitarian rule by dictators while all the other countries shed those cultural and political systems and instead embraced Democracy deep in the last century.

Refugees in the US thought as late as the early 1960s that the betrayal at the Yalta conference would be reversed and that they would be able to return home. By 1965 it was clear that it would not happen and they adapted as best as they could to their new homes. As difficult as it was to adapt in these new lands they had one great element in common; Democracy and the love of freedom and liberty that was part of the cultural heritage and deeply embedded in their very souls. Everywhere they went they would remind everyone including the Americans about democracy. So the words spoken by President Zelensky about Democracy are not new words. They are words that were spoken by his grand parents and deeply rooted in the Ukrainian souls.

In many ways Ukraine and Russia are like the US and Great Britain, except with the US and Great Britain they both have culture and political systems that do not accept dictators. Unfortunately for Ukraine and Russia, they have a completely different culture and political system where one embraces dictators and rejects the rule of law when it gets in the way. In many ways this is the same challenge that the West is facing with a class of super rich that thinks they are above the law and can act like dictators when it suits their needs. Until the Russian people realize that they still have not shed their Czar and they reject grand ideas and plans for Empire where only an elite few in Russia benefit, Ukraine and Russia will never reach an agreement where Russia rules over Ukraine.

The connection between the super rich in the West and Russia is very real. They have been affecting US policy towards Ukraine for decades. The most recent example is when Trump illegally compromised US policy towards Ukraine and was impeached. President Zelensky is not wrong that the Ukrainian fight is a fight about Democracy versus Totalitarianism around the world. It is not the first time the US had a serious internal split in times of very serious war. The last time was World War II when some of the US super rich sided with fascism and the Nazis. It was very difficult for the US to maintain control and that is one of the primary reasons why the US sided with Russia in World War II. They knew that they could control the communists in the US after the war but they would be unable to control the fascist and Nazis if they won the war. The American Democracy would come to an end. So the US went to bed with a demon rather than the devil.

When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 I shared an office with a retried US enlisted Navy person who served his country for decades around the world and in many military missions. When the topic of the Russian invasion of Ukraine surfaced I did a quick search of the military capability of Russia and Ukraine in terms of numbers of assets and my question was who will help Ukraine because they have no military assets and they gave away their nuclear weapons in exchange for protection. His response was that the US will not help because people have to be willing to fight and Ukrainians are unwilling to fight. I did not tell him about the villages, towns, and yes cities that were removed from the face of the earth during World War II and how millions died and millions of others were scattered across the globe as they fought in World War II. I did not tell him about the massive numbers of people arrested and sent to Siberia or just killed during the cold war. I just thought to myself, what a smug military person protected by massive technology and resources not really seeing the horror of massive war that destroys whole civilizations.

For those who think that the current Russian behavior is justified or new are in for a rude awakening.

03/18/2022 Friday Day 23

03/17/2022 Thursday Day 22

03/16/2022 Wednesday Day 21

Systems Assessment 03/16/2022 Day 21

The S-300 is a series of initially Soviet and later Russian long range surface-to-air missile systems. The S-300 system was developed to defend against aircraft and cruise missiles for the Soviet Air Defence Forces. Subsequent variations were developed to intercept ballistic missiles. The S-300 system was first deployed by the Soviet Union in 1979, designed for the air defence of large industrial and administrative facilities, military bases and control of airspace against enemy strike aircraft. The system is fully automated, though manual observation and operation are also possible. Components may be near the central command post, or up to 40 km away. Each radar provides target designation for the central command post. The command post compares the data received from the targeting radars up to 80 km apart, filtering false targets. The central command post features both active and passive target detection modes. The S-300 is regarded as one of the most potent anti-aircraft missile systems currently fielded. It is mainly used in Asia and Eastern Europe, including three NATO member countries: Bulgaria, Greece and Slovakia. An evolved version of the S-300 system is the S-400, which entered service on 28 April 2007. Target detection range 180–360 km. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-300_missile_system.

The AeroVironment Switchblade is a miniature-sized loitering munition drone developed by AeroVironment. It is designed as a kamikaze drone, being able to crash into its target with an explosive warhead to destroy it. The Switchblade is small enough to be carried in a backpack and can be launched from a variety of ground, maritime, and air platforms. Two variants exist, the Switchblade 300 and the Switchblade 600.  The larger Switchblade 600 loitering munition weighs 50 lb (23 kg) but is man-portable and can be set up in 10 minutes. It is designed to fly out to 40 km (25 mi) in 20 minutes, then loiter for another 20 minutes (giving it an 80 km (50 mi) total range) and attack at a 115 mph (185 km/h) dash speed, carrying an anti-armor warhead designed to neutralize armored vehicles. A touchscreen tablet-based fire control system can manually or autonomously control the munition, and it is secured through onboard encrypted data links and Selective Availability Anti-Spoofing Module GPS. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AeroVironment_Switchblade.

MQ-9 Reaper (Predator B) is an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) capable of remotely controlled or autonomous flight operations for the United States Air Force (USAF). The MQ-9 is the first hunter-killer UAV designed for long-endurance, high-altitude surveillance. In 2006, the then–Chief of Staff of the United States Air Force General T. Michael Moseley said: "We've moved from using UAVs primarily in intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance roles before Operation Iraqi Freedom, to a true hunter-killer role with the Reaper. The MQ-9 is a larger, heavier, and more capable aircraft than the earlier Predator; it can be controlled by the same ground systems used to control MQ-1s. The aircraft is monitored and controlled by aircrew in the Ground Control Station (GCS), including weapons employment. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Atomics_MQ-9_Reaper.

The Predator is an American remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) that was used primarily by the United States Air Force (USAF) and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). Conceived in the early 1990s for aerial reconnaissance and forward observation roles, the Predator carries cameras and other sensors. It was modified and upgraded to carry and fire two AGM-114 Hellfire missiles or other munitions. The aircraft entered service in 1995, and saw combat in the war in Afghanistan, Pakistan, the NATO intervention in Bosnia, 1999 NATO bombing of Yugoslavia, the Iraq War, Yemen, the 2011 Libyan civil war, the 2014 intervention in Syria, and Somalia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Atomics_MQ-1_Predator.

03/15/2022 Tuesday Day 20

Systems Assessment 03/15/2022 Day 20

After 1991, the post-communist countries of eastern Europe, particularly Poland, Hungary and Czechoslovakia, found themselves in an uncertain security environment. Nearby Yugoslavia was falling apart, and they had their own potential border disputes. Most of all, though, they had a vivid memory of Russian imperialism. They did not believe Russia would remain weak for ever, and they wanted to align with NATO while they still could. “If you don’t let us into Nato, we’re getting nuclear weapons,” Polish officials told a team of thinktank researchers in 1993. “We don’t trust the Russians.”

03/14/2022 Monday Day 19

03/13/2022 Saturday Day 18

Systems Background 03/13/2022 Day 18

A Battalion Tactical Group (BTG), is a unit deployed by the Russian Army that is kept at a high level of readiness. A BTG includes a battalion (typically mechanized infantry) of 2 to 4 companies reinforced with air-defence, artillery, engineering, and logistical support units, formed from a garrisoned army brigade. A tank company and rocket artillery also reinforce such groupings. BTGs were the mainstay of Russia's military attack in Ukraine from 2013 to 2015, particularly in the Donbass war. As of August 2021 Russia had about 170 BTGs. Each BTG has approximately 600 - 800 officers and soldiers, of whom roughly 200 are infantry, equipped with vehicles typically including roughly 10 tanks and 40 infantry fighting vehicles.

The number of confirmed deaths in the Russo-Ukrainian War (Donbas and Crimea) from the UN are 13,100 to 13,300 Ukranians with 3,393 Ukranian Civilians killed between 6 April 2014 to 31 January 2021. According to the Ukrainian government 14,000 Ukranians were killed by 13 May 2021.

03/12/2022 Saturday Day 17

Systems Assessment 03/12/22: Day 17

It is clear that Russia does not care about any economic sanctions. They are engaged in a full out war with Ukraine and they expanded the war to include the destruction of multiple Ukrainian cities and the mass killing of civilians.

The current system being used by the West has had no effect on the Russian war machine that has attacked Ukraine. There have been multiple attempts at negotiations and the Russian demands have not changed since the start of the war. After each negotiation attempt, the war was expanded and became more brutal.

It currently appears that the West is hoping that Russia will stop its military invasions with Ukraine and that the war will not expand into NATO countries. The Ukrainians are suggesting that this war will expand and that World War III has started.

The Ukrainians are requesting weapons that the West is afraid to provide because the West does not want to provoke Russia into expanding the war to include NATO. The Ukrainians are suggesting that the only way to stop Russia from invading NATO countries is to defeat them decisively in Ukraine and that can only happen with effective weapons.

The West thinks that if Russia is bogged down in a massive generational guerilla war in Ukraine, that Russia will be unable to invade NATO countries.

Some suggest that the war will end if Russia is able to penetrate the Ukrainian capital, raise the Russian flag and President Zelensky is arrested, killed, or flees Ukraine.

The West is hoping that China, India, and or Turkey can convince Putin to stop the war. This is unlikely. At the beginning of this section are possible peace treaty terms.

03/11/2022 Friday Day 16

03/10/2022 Thursday Day 15

03/09/2022 Wednesday Day 14

03/08/2022 Tuesday Day 13

The following includes media chatter as policy and Ukrainian weapons needs becomes the focus.

03/07/2022 Monday Day 12

03/06/2022 Sunday Day 11

03/05/2022 Saturday Day 10

Systems Assessment 03/05/22: Day 10

It is clear that Ukraine was not provided the needed military equipment to defend themselves against the Russian invasion. The question is why? History has been written. If Ukraine falls, future generations will not be kind to all the players, including those that were supposed to help them fight the Russians.

Ukraine needs missile defense systems immediately. Some have claimed that this is not possible because it would take years to establish. That is a lie. There are many mobile missile defense systems available from many countries around the world. For example, the AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder radar and AN/TPQ-37 Firefinder radar. No training is required by the Ukrainians. They are smart and well versed in high technology. All these systems are intentionally designed to be operated by soldiers at the 5th grade to 9th grade level. They are available and easy to deploy because that is their purpose.

Hughes AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder weapon locating system is a mobile radar system developed in the mid-late 1970s by Hughes Aircraft Company and manufactured by Northrop Grumman and Thales Raytheon Systems, achieving initial operational capability in May, 1982. The system is a "weapon-locating radar", designed to detect and track incoming mortar, artillery and rocket fire to determine the point of origin for counter-battery fire. It is currently in service at battalion and higher levels in the United States Army, United States Marine Corps and Australian Army. Also Turkish Army, Portugal and Ukrainian Army are among the users. The radar is typically trailer-mounted and towed by a Humvee. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/TPQ-36_Firefinder_radar.

The Hughes AN/TPQ-37 Firefinder Weapon Locating System is a mobile radar system developed in the late 1970s by Hughes Aircraft Company, achieving Initial Operational Capability in 1980 and full deployment in 1984. Currently manufactured by Thales Raytheon Systems, the system is a long-range version of “weapon-locating radar,” designed to detect and track incoming artillery and rocket fire to determine the point of origin for counter-battery fire. It is currently in service at brigade and higher levels in the United States Army and by other countries. The radar is trailer-mounted and towed by a 2-ton truck. A typical AN/TPQ-37 system consists of the Antenna-Transceiver Group, Command Shelter and 60 kW Generator. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/TPQ-37_Firefinder_radar.

Skyshield Air-defence system is a modular, light weight, Short Range Air Defense (SHORAD) system developed by the Swiss corporation Oerlikon Contraves (now a subsidiary of Rheinmetall of Germany). The successor to the Skyguard defense system, Skyshield is intended to rapidly acquire and destroy threatening aircraft and missiles, as well as to fulfill a C-RAM role. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyshield.

Iron Dome is a mobile all-weather air defense system developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries. The system is designed to intercept and destroy short-range rockets and artillery shells fired from distances of 4 kilometers (2.5 mi) to 70 kilometers (43 mi) away and whose trajectory would take them to an Israeli populated area. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome.

The Phalanx CIWS (pronounced "sea-wiz") is a close-in weapon system for defense against incoming threats such as small boats, surface torpedoes, anti-ship missiles and helicopters. A land variant, known as the LPWS (Land Phalanx Weapon System), part of the C-RAM system, has recently been deployed in a short range missile defense role, to counter incoming rockets, artillery and mortar fire. Once engaged it automatically detects and destroys all incoming threats.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phalanx_CIWS.

FAAD C2 is a battle-proven C2 system, deployed in several theaters of operation for the C-UAS and C-RAM (Counter-Rocket, Artillery and Mortar) missions for its proven performance and flexibility that enables easy integration with available sensors, effectors and warning systems to launch rapid, real-time defense against short range and maneuvering threats. https://asc.army.mil/web/portfolio-item/anmpq-64-sentinel-2 . https://man.fas.org/dod-101/sys/land/wsh2013/114.pdf.

Air Defense Background

Air defense systems are categorized as tactical or strategic. Tactical systems are used on the battle field. They are mobile systems designed to destroy incoming rockets, artillery, and mortar rounds. Some mobile systems are also strategic. Strategic air defense systems are meant to deal with aircraft and long range missile attacks. For example they are set to defend an ADIZ (air defense information zone) or detect and destroy a ballistic missile. Strategic systems are typically hardened fixed sites.

Counter rocket, artillery, and mortar, abbreviated C-RAM or counter-RAM, is a set of systems used to detect and/or destroy incoming rockets, artillery, and mortar rounds in the air before they hit their ground targets, or simply provide early warning. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counter_rocket,_artillery,_and_mortar.

A counter-battery radar (alternatively weapon tracking radar or COBRA) is a radar system that detects artillery projectiles fired by one or more guns, howitzers, mortars or rocket launchers and, from their trajectories, locates the position on the ground of the weapon that fired it. Such radars are a subclass of the wider class of target acquisition radars. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counter-battery_radar.

An Air Operations Center (AOC) provides command and control of air operations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Operations_Center. They operate with Regional Operations Centers (ROC) and Sector Operations Control Centers (SOCC) depending on the country and its air defense needs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Aerospace_Defense_Command . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_American_Aerospace_Defense_Command#/media/File:NORAD_Region-Sector_Map.jpg.

The following is old information but its still applies. The companies and system names have only changed and expanded.

There are fixed site systems, land mobile systems, below sea level, and sea level systems. RCA worked on the sea level systems (things that float). Hughes did the NATO fixed site systems and the NATO mobile systems. The fixed site systems are underground and above ground with massive redundancy. Hughes also did the US JSS system. As part of these fixed site systems, the air traffic control systems can be "switched" to air defense mode. So all the sensors and command and control assets of a country merge in time of war but it is the military systems that are designed to survive and are the primary systems while the civilian components only add to the capability. Think in terms of sensors and more eyes. The US has hundreds of air traffic control sensors and ~20,000 civilian air traffic control eyes looking at the sky 24/7. This is in addition to the military staff sitting at their command and control centers using their their sensors and the merged ATC sensors.

This is why Hughes provided international air traffic control systems. These systems were designed to be air defense systems and if a country could not take delivery of the air defense elements, it could be quickly augmented with those element at the first sign of war. Most systems like Korean ATC and Japan Badge-X did / do air traffic control, but they are also full fledged air defense systems. In the 1960's Israel had this type of system and it was credited with winning the war in the 196x attack. This was for countries that could not afford separate air traffic control and air defense systems. They are also small land mass areas where it does not make sense to have 2 separate systems. Think boundaries and interior area. By the time you protect the boundary (ADIZ) the interior is covered so just use it for civilian ATC in peace time.

Mobile systems are designed to be quickly deployed and unlike fixed sites they are designed to deal with the close in battle. They perform air defense (aircraft), missile defense, mortar defense, and land based defense. The key is that they are mobile and can be pre-placed. They also form the forward air defense components of the air defense system with connectivity to the central systems. There are SOC (Sector Operation Centers), Air Operations Centers (AOC), and Forward Air Defense (FAD) locations as deployed elements.

Aegis is designed to protect a battle group and in the end the aircraft carrier. They have long range missile defense and gun capability. So they can attack a country from the sea. Their air defense is associated with protecting the aircraft carrier, which has the lethal aircraft and weapons, and it is accomplished with the CIWS. When placed on land, its air defense is limited to a small area associated with the CIWS. So it would need to be placed in each city.

Systems Assessment of Ukraine Current Situation

Ukrainian cities should have had multiple mobile air defense systems. They are obviously missing. The more of these systems that are activated the lower the number of successful missile strikes. So, Ukraine has been hit with 500+ missile strikes. Either the Russians launched 2,000 - 5,000 missiles or Ukraine does not have enough of these missile defense systems. A key element was for the west to educate the Ukrainians on military systems, what to expect, and the needed defense systems. That apparently did not happen, the facts are clear and now part of history.

Journalism in the West from outlets like MSNBC and CNN have started to fail and support false narratives that compromise the Ukrainians. Talking heads are appearing moving the topic to a no fly zone. None of the journalists have asked questions associated with what military equipment has been provided and what is needed. There is no LIST being shown to the people of the world. However, the Russian military knows that list. At least one Ukrainian has attempted to bring up this topic but the MSNBC host immediately switched the topic to the humanitarian crisis and then personalized it to ask about the Ukrainian persons family. The discussion was shutdown. However, the Ukrainian did say we need military equipment to protect the air and that he is not a military person and does not know what equipment is needed.

What a terrible finding. This is sad and pathetic.

03/04/2022 Friday Day 9

Systems Assessment 03/04/22: Day 9

The EU is being significantly impacted with the massive entry of Ukrainian refugees, which are mostly woman and children that will not be able to easily enter a workforce and support their exile. This suggests massive social services costs for the EU. The EU has stated that they realize that Ukraine is defending them against Russia and are glad to open their borders and provide the needed assistance to refugees. The USA has adopted the same refugee policies as the EU - 3 years.

A talking head on MSNBC has suggested that Putin wants to only reconstitute Czarist Russia, which is only the country of Ukraine. This suggests that once Ukraine falls the war will end. This does not explain Georgia and Syria and it will not explain the Baltics or Poland. This is irresponsible journalism because once the statement was made, follow-up questions were not asked, instead an opinion was offered that suggests that this makes sense. Management damage control will not stop this war. Those that are not engaged in journalism must be removed from their implied journalistic roles. The obvious follow-up question are: What current countries fall into the geographic area of Czarist Russia and do you think Putin knows that map and has that list? Isn't this cultural genocide? Are you advocating for cultural genocide? Are you advocating for the resurgence of empires?

If Ukraine falls and Putin stops the Russian internal unrest, the conquest will continue into NATO starting with the Baltics. At that point it will be the EU that will be honoring NATO. The scenario is well known and is part of the WW I and WW II history. It is only if the EU starts to fall that the UK will be dragged into the war and then the USA. It is all dependent on the size and will of the Russian war machine. Is this war machine as deadly as the German war machine in the previous century? Currently there is equipment and social will supporting the Russian war machine.

03/03/2022 Thursday Day 8

Systems Assessment 03/03/22: Day 8

Ukraine does not have adequate defense systems to protect against missile attacks. It is unclear why they have not been provided with effective air defense systems. These are the same types of systems used in Israel to defend their civilian areas from missile attacks. For example:

  1. Iron Dome is a mobile all-weather air defense system developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and Israel Aerospace Industries. The system is designed to intercept and destroy short-range rockets and artillery shells fired from distances of 4 kilometers (2.5 mi) to 70 kilometers (43 mi) away and whose trajectory would take them to an Israeli populated area.
  2. The Patriot system gained notoriety during the Persian Gulf War of 1991 with the claimed engagement of over 40 Iraqi Scud missiles.
  3. Aegis Ashore is is a missile defense system. The first site to be declared operational was in Romania in 2016. The first in Romania at Deveselu that was opened in May 2015 and the second in Redzikowo, Poland planned for 2018, but delayed twice, to 2022. Some radar facilities will be placed in Turkey at a future date.

Media has started to ignore the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances signed by the USA, UK, and Russia, like it never existed. Others are saying that it is irrelevant and that the only agreement that matters is NATO. This is a sad and horrific turn of events. If the USA and UK walked away from the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances it is unclear what may happen if Russia enters into NATO territories associated with the new countries that recently entered into NATO. There is the original NATO block and then the new entries. President Biden has clearly stated that the USA will defend every inch of NATO territory.

Country

NATO Entry

Russian Invasion

Population (million)

Russia

NA

NA

144

Belarus

NA

NA

9.4

Ukraine

Rejected by NATO

2014 part 2022 full

44

Georgia

No

2008

10.6

Syria

No

2015

17.5

Bulgaria

2004

Risk Phase 1

7

Estonia

2004

Baltic State Risk Phase 1

1

Latvia

2004

Baltic State Risk Phase 1

2

Lithuania

2004

Baltic State Risk Phase 1

2.8

Romania

2004

Risk Phase 1

19

Slovakia

2004

Risk Phase 1

5.5

Slovenia

2004

Risk Phase 1

2

Albania

2009

Risk Phase 1

2.8

Croatia

2009

Risk Phase 1

4

Montenegro

2017

Risk Phase 1

0.6

North Macedonia

2020

Risk Phase 1

2

Poland

Yes

Risk Phase 2

38

East Germany

Yes

Risk Phase 3

16 (2016)

EU

Yes

None

447

UK

Yes

None

62

USA

Yes

None

330

03/02/2022 Wednesday Day 7

Systems Assessment 03/02/22: Day 7

It appears that US policy is to exhaust Russia, so that if Ukraine falls and Russia enters into a NATO country, the Russian military will be significantly diminished. The US has stated that they do not want to corner Putin, where the only option left is nuclear. However, the policy assumes that the military would actually follow nuclear strike orders. The policy also fails to consider that if Putin fails with an attack on a NATO country, he would feel trapped with no other option than a nuclear option. This suggests that the US strongly believes that Russia will fail in Ukraine, otherwise the next step would be a NATO strike. This is a significant cause and effect finding.

Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov (September 1939 to 19 May 2017) was a lieutenant colonel of the Soviet Air Defense Forces who played a key role in the 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident. On 26 September 1983, three weeks after the Soviet military had shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 007, Petrov was the duty officer at the command center for the Oko nuclear early warning system when the system reported that a missile had been launched from the United States, followed by up to five more. Petrov judged the reports to be a false alarm, and his decision to disobey orders, against Soviet military protocol, is credited with having prevented an erroneous retaliatory nuclear attack on the United States and its NATO allies that could have resulted in a large scale nuclear war. An investigation confirmed that the Soviet satellite warning system had malfunctioned. Because of his decision not to launch a retaliatory nuclear strike, Petrov is often credited as having "saved the world" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov.

03/01/2022 Tuesday Day 6

02/28/2022 Monday Day 5

02/27/2022 Sunday Day 4

02/26/2022 Saturday Day 3

02/25/2022 Friday Day 2

02/24/2022 Thursday Day 1

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References:

[1] Privatization A Systems Perspective, Walter Sobkiw, 2019, ISBN 9780983253068. Privatization A Systems Perspective.

[2] Holodomor, wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor, February 2022.

[3] Minimum Requirements for NATO Membership, Fact sheet prepared by the Bureau of European and Canadian Affairs, June 30, 1997, US Department of State. webpage https://1997-2001.state.gov/regions/eur/fs_members.html, February 2022.

[4] What You Should Really Know About Ukraine, Fairness & Accuracy In Reporting FAIR, January 28, 2022, https://fair.org/home/what-you-should-really-know-about-ukraine, February 2022. What You Should Really Know About Ukraine.

[5] NATO Member States, February 2022. https://www.eata.ee/en/nato-2/nato-member-states.

[6] Biden: If Russia Invades It Will Be Responsible For 'Catastrophic' War Of Choice, wikipedia MSNBC. February 18, 2022.

[7] Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky mocks West's war prediction at Munich Security Conference, wikipedia WON. February 19, 2022.

[8]  We will defend our land with or without the support of partners - Zelensky’s full speech at Munich Security Conference. The Financial, February 19, 2022. website, https://finchannel.com/we-will-defend-our-land-with-or-without-the-support-of-partners, February 2022. We will defend our land with or without the support of partners - Zelensky’s full speech at Munich Security Conference.

[9] Factbox: How Ukraine's armed forces shape up against Russia's, Reuters, February 24, 2022. webpage https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/how-ukraines-armed-forces-shape-up-against-russias-2022-02-01/, February 2022. Factbox: How Ukraine's armed forces shape up against Russia's

[10] Calamity Again, The Atlantic, February 23, 2022. webpage https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/ukraine-identity-russia-patriotism/622902, February 2022. Calamity Again.

[11] CIA World Factbook - Ukraine. webpage https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/ukraine, February 2022.

[12] Pixabay, webpage https://pixabay.com/photos/kiev-ukraine-city-sky-building-5202547, February 2022.

[13] Nations Online, webpage https://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/map/ukraine-political-map.htm, February 2022.

[14] Live Briefing: Ukraine Under Attack, Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, February 28, 2022. webpage https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-crisis-crosshairs-live-briefing/31668477.html, February 2022. Live Briefing: Ukraine Under Attack.

[15] Was it inevitable? A short history of Russia’s war on Ukraine, The Guardian, March 11, 2022. webpage https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/was-it-inevitable-a-short-history-of-russias-war-on-ukraine, March 2022. Was it inevitable? A short history of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

[16] Why NATO should establish a humanitarian no-conflict zone in Ukraine, March 23, 2022, New Atlanticist, Ian Brzezinski, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/expert/ian-brzezinski.

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Red Cross Donations International Committee

ICRC
ICRC Ukraine

Ukrainian Catholic Church Aid

Archeparchy of Philadelphia
Humanitarian Aid Fund for Ukraine
Cathedral of the Immaculate Conception
Saint Nicholas Church

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