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hello welcome to COVID 19 a systems perspective how did this project start I sent an email to Drexel University about building new ventilator prototypes to address anticipated shortages that folks were talking about early in the COVID 19 disaster as a result I was added to the Drexel coveted research projects group coincidentally within a couple of days of each other a neighbor of mine who happens to be an engineer sent me an email listing requirements in response to a travel company that was wanting them to go on a cruise shortly after that point Drexel was having a request for proposal to perform COVID 19 research and I submitted a proposal so what is this about this is about applying systems engineering systems thinking and the system's perspective to mitigating and potentially eliminating the COVID 19 virus from the environment this presentation is targeted to a broader audience including those who may not be familiar with systems engineering it's actually very difficult to communicate what is this thing called systems engineering systems thinking and perspective to folks who've never been introduced to it before from a formal perspective what I did is I pulled out a definition here that was offered by a gentleman by the name of Simon Ramo his background is he started at Hughes Aircraft and he eventually wound up being one of the founding members of TRW this was his definition of systems engineering systems thinking and perspective it's a discipline that concentrates on the design and application of the whole system as distinct from the parts it involves looking at the problem in its entirety taking into account all facets and all the variables and relating the social to the technical aspect I want to repeat that last phrase and relating the social to the technical aspect that is key that is so critical to everything that we do from a systems engineering perspective so what was the proposed Drexel research about the idea was to develop a systems perspective framework to be used to perform this and other future COVID 19 rapid response research the purpose is to maximize the effectiveness of future and rapid response research beyond covid19 the potential impact is that critical research is performed and transferred to use as soon as possible to save lives in this particular case from the COVID 19 outbreak the work done in privatization a systems perspective it's a book that I wrote research that I did a few years ago is a template to follow for all other areas attempting to gain a systems perspective additional systems perspectives are in my other textbooks systems practices and systems design essentially the proposal was not selected and that's okay you know because it allowed me to be free I could go off and do whatever I wanted so this is the foundation of this work I captured this stuff in different books textbooks through the years the first one systems practices is common sense it's a textbook identifying all of the different kinds of things that systems engineers do when they engage in this thing called systems engineering the second textbook it's a little bit different when people go and try to figure out what happens on a project they try to understand how you can take a blank sheet of paper and arrive at a working system because that rarely happens the reality is when you attempt to do different things maybe one in ten projects will actually succeed in a grand way in any case this green book systems engineering design renaissance is was an attempt or is an attempt to capture the magic sauce that is associated with this thing called design and essentially making sure that when we engage in our design we don't compromise our system's perspective we build upon what's in the red textbook the systems practices as common sense now the purple book privatization a systems perspective that's actually an attempt to apply these systems engineering kinds of principles and ideas from the red and green book to something a little bit different it's outside of what we might consider to be a technological solution it's actually looking at our government here in the united states and how it's been transformed over the past 40 years and techniques divulged in these two books are used to try to understand what's happened with our government so privatization a systems perspective is a template to follow for everyone attempting to gain a system's perspective and that's the template that was used for this COVID 19 research so I began the research and what happened I used my website to capture the research content and the research started with a framework to perform a rapid response research associated with covid19 it started with ventilators it included mental health art coping mechanisms and a needleless injection system all of this however quickly moved to an area which I called return to life continuing on with what happened I provided updates to the Drexel coveted research projects group there were about 140 members in that group and there were two pieces of information that came from that group that were very important for this research one was a key document from china where they identified how they were coping with the COVID 19 disaster over there and then there was a link to the COVID 19 health care coalition now I joined and provided updates to the COVID 19 health care coalition and there's members there that vary between 300 and 700 members what this thing is is the mayo clinic requested MITRE to start this coalition now MITRE is a federally funded research development center and it started in the 1950s they were basically established to do the systems engineering for this thing called semi-automatic ground environment sage now sage was the very first computer-based system to try to deal with the potential of nuclear attack it was an air defense system but what came out of sage is our entire computing infrastructure that we know about today basically in the 50s they created everything they digitized everything they use the telephone lines to common uh establish communications between the different computer facilities they invented a console that looked like a tv but it wasn't a tv it had text information up there had map information etc did you sit in front of your computer today use the internet that's what sage was anyway MITRE their role was to do the systems engineering as part of the semi-automatic ground environment and I interacted with multiple colleagues from around the country I provided inputs to the media and elected officials as the research was unfolding so how did I approach this research I’ve turned back the clock about 40 years and I assumed I was at a place called Hughes Aircraft in Fullerton in that setting there were unlimited resources I was surrounded by brilliant people there were no restrictions of any kind I was able to travel anywhere in the world if I needed to and there was no groveling for personal survival I all of us were operating at the highest level of Maslow's hierarchy of needs that's very very important because there was nothing holding us back there and again that's how I approach this research so how did I do this obviously I wasn't at Hughes Aircraft anymore what could I do I’ve used the mix that was conceived in 1945. we all know it today as the internet but that whole concept was conceived in 1945 again we call this the internet like all endeavors especially with systems engineering results are not instantaneous body of knowledge grew over time and it became pretty significant over time so these are the return to life key research content areas obviously I started with stakeholder needs I quickly focused in on airplanes and airports I proposed a virus defense system there are systems performance kinds of analysis there's life expectancy impacts there's this whole idea of indoor outdoor ventilation which turned out to be huge there's needed ventilation rates in order for us to mitigate our environments and perhaps even make them safe once again there were investigations into ultraviolet systems uv systems there's death rate predictions there's herd immunity predictions based on using vaccines and based on using different technologies other than what we find from the medical arena there's technologies associated with ultraviolet uh systems with heating ventilation cooling systems there's also technologies associated and systems approaches associated with virus decontamination and then all of this eventually the concept of architecture always starts to surface I mean you know what is the answer well the answer is going to be embedded in some kind of architecture but it's not going to be an architecture it's going to be alternatives to surface and in this space there's always the dream architecture and there's the horror architecture and I disclosed to horror architecture also because everybody needed to know that I eventually honed in on the idea that we're in big trouble okay and I called it system claps I held back nothing in that area and that's a very very important area and I offered proposed legislation the research itself on the internet it's captured as an html page basically so you can have one sitting you just sit down read the thing you hit the print button it all comes out it's about 400 pages of a pdf document and then I moved all of this content over to a new book a new textbook it's going to be associated with COVID 19 and this whole system's perspective and i'm going to be using again the model from privatization a system perspective to produce this book also it exists it's in publication it will be coming out eventually it's approximately 650 pages so what are the impacts of this research because of this research it was finally admitted that the virus is airborne engineers and scientists were signing letters petition letters saying hey you know this thing is airborne however everyone was ignoring them I however was providing the numbers based on different kinds of engineering analysis and here's the deal the engineering principles are very basic they're very simple the mathematics is very simple it's basically fifth grade mathematics however I was able to disclose the numbers whereas everyone in the industry they are tied because of non-disclosure agreements the numbers are treated as proprietary and they needed to protect their reputations and their professional engineering licenses systems folks always operate outside of that boundary they are never ever shackled by these kinds of encumbrances and that's where I was coming from with the system's perspective so I was able to publish the numbers they were irrefutable you couldn't shoot them down as a result of that within one day of my media contacts the story broke that the virus is airborne again it is difficult to reject numbers based on based on fifth grade math that anyone's grandmother can understand and again I provided the numbers on the needed building air update rates everyone else they're part of the industry they have their non-disclosure agreements and licenses to protect and they can only provide vague guidance and information now with this I also provided proposed legislation to update the schools and my understanding is right now the new administration this is national policy money's been set aside to try to figure out how to deal with the schools so the children can go back to their classrooms safely so in this research I performed a ventilation analysis using different scenarios and eventually I honed in on probability of infection I relied primarily on the wells riley equation because that's where all of the epidemiologists focused their attention but I was actually able to correlate that equation with many of the different kinds of engineering equations that we use to try to understand what goes on with particles as they move around with radiation as the radiation is emitted from a source etc in any case what I have is I have different scenarios I have probability of infection and i'm just going to read off some of these things so the probability of infection is four percent to 72 percent inside of a small indoor space like a small restaurant and here's the deal you don't know how you can eat with the mask on your face the reality is you can't eat with a mask on your face so the scenario includes time when the mask is removed from your face and that scenario is one hour it includes again the reality that there's no mask while you're eating the small indoor space also includes the best case school and work setting in a similar situation the children at some point will have what I call mask failures and the mask failures are associated where the mask is not being worn and again the assumption that I used was one hour so here's the deal if you're wearing your mask constantly the probability of infection is 4 if you include the reality of what's happening with these kinds of scenarios it'll go as high as 72 okay so the next scenario I went into is probability of infection in a large indoor space for example a large big box shopping store grocery store for example a large indoor space where people are working they're engaged in retail work basically an extremely large indoor space the probability of infection there is actually very small it's between zero and three percent then I examined the probability of infection again inside of a small school setting small restaurant under other conditions and again it's between 12 and 99 percent this is what we're looking at I then proceeded to take a look and try to understand what happens when we're outside for example if we're in an enclosed backyard if we're at the beach a large beach park setting etc so here are the numbers the probability of infection is between point one one percent and one percent with no masks okay and the scenario involved a one mile per hour wind and a five mile per hour wind again and outside enclosed backyard area the probability of infection is between zero and point zero two percent with no masks if you're outside in a beach park kind of setting and there's a one mile per hour wind a five mile per hour wind and again you can go from a small kind of beach bark set beach park setting to a large beach park setting again one mile per hour wind five mile per hour wind now it was very interesting how I arrived at this point why I decided to try to understand what's happening outside what drove me there it was data from other countries to force me to analyze indoor versus outdoor living conditions we were getting data that certain countries for whatever reason were doing better than other countries and the first reaction on everyone's part was oh the data is contaminated people are massaging the figures I took a completely different approach I said no wait a minute let's take a look at this let's assume that this data is valid what are the differences in these --- these various countries where potentially they have less risk less spread of this COVID 19 virus what is really going on here and that's what led me down this path I realized there are certain countries where people tend to live outside and when people live outside again there's less potential risk of getting sick from this virus and one of the countries that really queued me in on this was Egypt I managed to spend some time traveling in Egypt and at the time people live outside there even their apartments don't have windows so the wind just blows completely through the building all the taxis the windows are always down people are living outside they're not living inside of enclosed buildings inside of air-conditioned spaces that are small spaces so everyone is struggling with what to do again no one really identified the differences between small indoor spaces large indoor spaces and living outside this research however disclosed it and it disclosed it using numbers and again mathematics it's very easy to follow and very basic engineering principles and also equations and principles from the medical field also so there's this other aspect associated with the research and that is how how can people relate to this what does this mean how how can I live moving forward so I came up with this thing called reduction in virus load exposure it's basically a metric a way of trying to understand what it means when you engage in different kinds of activities so for example what does it mean if you separate by six feet well it turns out that again using all kinds of different approaches and equations the simplest one to follow is something out of electrical engineering having to do with power density from a radiation source like an antenna essentially when you move a certain distance away from some kind of source that is bad for you for lack of a better word that source threat its reduction diminishes as a square of the distance so if you're six feet away from an infected person you have a 36 times reduction in a potential virus load that you'll get exposed to very interesting number okay if you have for example one mask what does it mean if the mask is 75 percent effective or 90 percent effective well here's what it comes down to if it's 75 percent effective it means that your virus load exposure is reduced by four times if you have two masks at that 75 percent rating your virus load exposure is reduced by 16 times now here is something very very important to surfaces and this comes out of the reliability world these are the folks that crunch numbers trying to understand when and how systems fail and how to introduce fault tolerance etc if you put two of these things together okay they act together to significantly reduce the amount of the virus load so if you have a separation of six feet and two masks you literally take the number 36 and you multiply it by 16 times and you have a 576 times reduction in the virus load so let's assume it takes one thousand virus particles for you to get infected if you're standing right in front of that person and they're talking in your face and they're infected they're gonna be spewing out let's just assume a thousand virus particles where you're going to be infected instantly if you're six feet away that virus load is reduced by 36 times okay it doesn't take into account things like wind and other issues surfacing etc with a mask it's four times okay you're going to be getting 250 virus particles instead of the full 1000 if you're wearing a mask and you're two feet away you're going to be getting two virus particles instead of a thousand virus particles so let's continue shopping one hour versus eight hours well that's linear you'll have an eight times reduction you don't want to spend time in that shopping center subway versus an airplane this is also very interesting you know my analysis my research shows that our airplanes are basically petri dishes so are our airports they're petri dishes they're spreading the virus around the world and basically what happened during thanksgiving and Christmas that's empirical data that shows that in any case what's going on with ground transportation systems why is it that empirical data from around the world has shown that the ground transportation systems aren't really spreading the virus let's take a look at a subway when you're on the subway you're 15 minutes on that subway not only do you have massive ventilation going on because they tend to be different kinds of systems than the airplanes again massive ventilation you're only 15 minutes on that subway as opposed to six hours on an airplane so 15 minutes into six hours it's a 24 times reduction in your potential virus exposure load so what can we do to minimize or eliminate disease in small spaces somehow we have to update our air and the air can either be from the outside which is virus free or it can be internal air where it gets filtered in some way or another technique is used to destroy the virus in some way now again continuing down different analysis approaches techniques trying to view the problem from a system's perspective what's going on with air update rates when we walk outside you're basically taking a step and visualize a cube around your head and that cube represents air every time you take a step you're moving into another cube of fresh air so when you're walking outside your air update rates are basically happening once a second that's 3600 error update rates per hour the world health organization has a wonderful document out there on natural ventilation and there's all kinds of information in there and that was one of the key documents that I used in this research to try to understand what it means to use ventilation and what it means to update the air and what are the impacts on reducing the risk of infection in any case in that document they talk about what it means to have an open window well if you have open windows with a little bit of cross ventilation from an open door the air will change 37 times in an hour so the air updates auc auh is 37. what's going on with ground public transportation well that's between 20 and 30. hospital trauma room this one is very interesting the published numbers out there are 15 air update rates per hour however we need to understand that when people are in an operating room they're wearing massive amounts of ppe and their ppe is not the typical ppe that we would find out in society their bodies are covered completely they have eye covering their masks are different etc so if we were to factor in the ppe or whatever other kinds of things that they're doing inside that operating room if we wanted to provide that same kind of environment we would need an auc of 60 to 150. so you just can't say that what we're doing in a hospital trauma room of 15 auc or pick another number 25 auc that's another published number out there it's not going to solve our problem while we're living day to day because we're not going to be walking around with ppe this systems analysis suggested that the air update rates needs to be between 50 and 100. it's a massive amount of air that's moving yes now we do have the possible technologies there's a case study of a bar restaurant from the 1960s most of the establishments back then had exhaust fans and the reason they had exhaust fans is because people used to smoke a lot and you needed to clean that air otherwise people would not be able to see each other in that particular scenario the air update rate is 120. literally the air changes once a minute that's how effective those exhaust fans were and can be today if they were applied today there's technology out there it's almost 100 years old actually it's 80 years old it's called ceiling level uvc lights and it turns out that you can get anywhere from 17 to 40 what they call effective auc updates and the research details it out further and then you have new technology associated with realizing that perhaps there's only a very narrow band of frequencies that are needed to kill or inactivate the virus and perhaps we can find frequencies that will kill the virus and yet not cause any irritation as we find with uvc to our eyes or skin so we can then bathe the entire environment using this form of lighting this is new technology it's out of Columbia University and again the numbers there can be massive the effective auc so here's the 50 000 foot view as we like to say in systems engineering what are the possible technologies that we can use to deal with this to basically mitigate the virus and perhaps even eliminate it from our environment we have the following technologies at our disposal we have vaccines we have uv and we have hvac systems and the numbers here you know they're right in your face very simple mathematics let's just take a look at one scenario let's take a look at the second row over here with natural immunity at 10 percent those are folks that just won't get infected with the virus period vaccine effectiveness let's pick it at 90 those that are vaccinated let's just say 90 of the population is vaccinated even under those conditions we're looking at almost two million people dying okay and that's the best case scenario the reality is we're probably going to be closer to the first row up here with some natural immunity not everybody's going to get vaccinated and the effectiveness is just not going to be as high as we think it is we're looking at 5 million people in the united states dying the base number here is 328 million now what does it mean if we were to introduce uv into these systems we know we have the data they're 90 effective they whack the virus at the 90 rate so if we take this second scenario over here we go from 1.9 million people to 196 000 people if we go back to what we used to have in terms of our heating ventilation cooling systems before the energy crisis and again the research kind of details some of this information all we need to do is just turn these things back on excuse me and have them operate at a four auc level four air exchanges is nothing okay we just need to make sure that these things are running when people are there turn them on an hour before they arrive let them run an hour after they leave we're looking at 141 000 people passing away from this disaster 141 000 people versus 1.9 million people so that's the effect of using multiple technologies and what's called a hybrid architecture it's not a single point solution it's not a single single trivial system solution it's a complex system solution now let's go all the way down to the bottom let's assume there is no vaccine we know the numbers are are dreadful with some natural immunity there are 10 million people with no natural immunity it's going to be around 11 million people if we were to introduce uv systems everywhere and not have the vaccine we'd be at 1.1 million people and if we turned on our heating ventilation cooling systems and ran them properly and maintained them properly we'd be down to 826 000 people so once again we have the technologies they're there it's just a matter of using them having the social will so the architecture alternatives that are on the table are basically do nothing which is how we kind of started when the COVID 19 disaster broke the second alternative is to introduce a vaccine and then the third alternative architecture c is to introduce a vaccine use uv technology and then make sure we're using our hvac systems properly so this is the architecture trade-off the trade-off criteria that I selected in this particular case is the ability to prevent a future epidemic or pandemic okay so there's two different criteria there and then I just kept those two criteria I identified the costs and there's costs associated with shutdown and that's what architecture a was about there's future potential costs again associated with potential shutdown that's associated with architecture b in other words we have a vaccine but the virus mutates and now we need to take a few months to create a new vaccine using the new technology that's associated with for example the pfizer and modern vaccines which are mrna-based and you use your own body to essentially produce what's needed in any case there's future potential shutdown costs and then there's the cost associated with people that have passed away okay so here are the comments on the right hand side the sensitivity analysis shows that the rating of 5 for architecture c is irrelevant okay and i'll talk about that in a moment same thing for both the epidemic and pandemic it doesn't matter what you stick in those columns for this particular problem that we have today which is massive our shutdown costs are in terms of billions again it will take six months for an updated vaccine and again the number that I use they're similar to the cares act costs I used seven million dollars per life for loss of life okay and uh the cost of a vaccine for architecture b is what we have there 10 billion and then introducing uv and hvac upgrades for architecture c we're looking at 150 billion dollars okay so how do we select our architecture we select our architecture by taking our total rating and dividing it by our total costs and that's what's called the measure of effectiveness that's the level of goodness for each architecture approach and if we take that value there that we have there and we normalize it so that we can relate to it we see that architecture c is 204 times better than architecture a and it's significantly better than architecture b and it doesn't matter what we pick for our trade-off criteria and here's why the costs associated with shutdown and the costs associated with loss of lives far outstrip the cost of updating the infrastructure to basically deal with this disaster and make sure that it doesn't surface in the future so here's the architecture takeaway architecture c is driven by saving as many lives as possible that's the bottom line and it happens to be the most effective because of massive shutdown costs it's simple you know this is the choice made by New Zealand prime minister r ardern I apologize for the last name pronunciation said she didn't worry that the elimination might be impossible because even if New Zealand didn't get there the approach would still save lives so New Zealand picked an approach where they weren't interested in doing a little bit or trying to keep the number of hospitalizations at a level where they could manage it they just wanted to save as many lives as they possibly could and it turns out that their approach worked they were able to have a wonderful Christmas holiday season this year so New Zealand was free of the virus as of December 2020 and they were fully open engaging in life but they have no international travel they attempted international travel and when that happened they bought the virus back into their uh territory for lack of a better word their country their physical boundary okay and they needed to shut down international travel again and deal with the virus that came in and eliminate it once again architecture analysis should always consider previous architecture alternate alternatives and we do have previous architecture alternatives in fact most of the public thinks these are the only alternatives however they are not okay as has already been shown so what were the previous architecture alternatives there's masking plus social distance there's total quarantine and then there's partial quarantine and again we have our two criteria they became columns in this particular case instead of rows so we want to prevent future epidemics and we want to stop a pandemic essentially and the rating is anywhere between zero and three and zero and five and zero and three now we have something very interesting that unfolded depending where these architectures were implemented the results were different so for example in New Zealand the measure of effectiveness of total quarantine was very effective okay they have a rating of five however they were able to implement a total quarantine Hawaii and japan I really don't know I will say that Hawaii was unable to implement a total quarantine same thing with japan they used masking and social distancing again in Hawaii very effective also in japan very effective in New Zealand extremely effective just like in japan partial quarantine you know again these folks understand these things as island nations partial quarantine again a level of three somewhat successful in Hawaii now here's the problem we were unable to implement any of these in the united states okay we see the total quarantine worked in New Zealand unable to implement that in the united states uh we see that masking and social distancing you know that partially explains japan people were compliant they listened to their guidance but we were unable to implement this in the united states so these are the previous architecture alternatives and kind of what was going on now as far as the costs the costs are all awash because it's the same thing okay you're shutting down basically people are dying so essentially the architecture ratings are what the actual criteria ratings are once this research had identified what the air update rates should be to mitigate the virus and even potentially remove the risk of infection inside of small spaces and that those numbers were very large anywhere from 50 to 100 auc proposed legislation text was prepared and here's the title COVID 19 funding for facility ventilation upgrade recommendations and to upgrade all public schools so the idea was to engage all our national labs to support an engineering-based ventilation test and evaluation effort one billion dollars was allocated for ventilation test and evaluation as an effort a standalone effort and then I performed an analysis of what it would take to upgrade all of the public schools and the results of the analysis identified that potentially 110 billion dollars would be needed to upgrade all of the public schools in order to deal with this disaster so it turns out that public school ventilation upgrade is now part of policy in the new 2021 administration the issue is no one is really talking about the numbers they're just using vague statements like upgrade ventilation a key element of the proposed legislation was to include different scenarios for example classroom school cafeteria a cubicle and a cube farm single multi-person office restaurant large room multiple small rooms movie theaters outdoor venues for example restaurants under a tent umbrella open air settings at a beach park lake under various wind conditions a public community center a library rehabilitation facilities assisted living facilities airport security check public demonstrations airplane passenger cabins cruise ships public transportation including bus trains subway and taxi and then generic spaces want or n to be defined as more is learned so that was the idea is that national labs would begin to study these different scenarios and come up with recommended numbers that could then be implemented as part of the infrastructure so this research has had significant impact and it's even starting to affect our legislation as we move into the new administration but this research has yet to impact other policy and it's actually extremely important policy areas these are some of the particular areas the us virus defense system needs to be fixed that's pretty obvious when we take a look at that system and i'll present some of it in this presentation almost every subsystem failed including our press so it's not just a government problem it also even includes our what we consider to be our free press vaccine is not enough everyone is hanging their hat on the vaccine and hoping and praying that the vaccine will basically translate to herd immunity but the reality is our infrastructure needs to be updated and it's not just the schools and the previous generation the reality is they needed to deal with this and that is why we have forced air heating ventilation cooling systems and uv technologies very basic things happened in the last century airplanes and airports they need to be rethought passenger cabin capacity again it needs to be rethought the whole issue of security screening in the airports that completely needs to be thrown away needs to be completely rethought so fundamental changes to the u s government started 40 years ago they also need to be rethought basically we've had 40 years of privatization and deregulation and when the COVID 19 disaster broke it was clear that the federal government was hands off and that is the policy and people fail to understand what has fundamentally happened and how the government has been transformed so the government did not jump in like they did during world war ii they did not jump in and do the Manhattan project they did not jump in and do the semi-automatic ground environment the sage system they did not jump in and do what we know of as the moon shot where people were actually able to go to the moon and land there and massive technology surface as a result of it it was completely hands off and that is very very important because it's part of a trend started 40 years ago and is under the broad category of privatization and deregulation so what would a virus defense system look like these things have been around for a very long time modern air defense many equate it to the 1950s with the semi-automatic ground environment where computers were introduced and we have sensors etc but the whole idea of defending against something is hundreds if not thousands of years old and there's generic functions associated with it here is a functional block diagram of a virus defense system and obviously we have one you know they exist in every country they exist on the planet the issue is how did it perform and i'll be discussing that in a moment but first we need to have a framework from which to discuss what the findings are step a is you have some form of surveillance in our particular case we have sick people and they're domestic international folks they're coming in terms of hospitals clinics doctors offices and other locations so there's some kind of surveillance system to try to figure out what's going on with the population and then there's identification people are sick well what do they have and what we have is we have concurrent contagion databases and we can correlate things and we can find out if there's something new out there if there's something new out there we can go off and we can perform some kind of reasonable threat assessment that threat assessment is based on a threat assessment database our existing contagions some of them are relatively benign and others are horrible it's the best way to describe it and you perform a threat assessment to try to understand what needs to happen and then there's resource assignment you have this threat you have to deal with it you have various tools available at your disposal as a civilization what are those resources and how are you going to assign them and there's a resources database what are the kinds of tools out there okay we know about vaccination we know about masks well what are the other kinds of resources that can be used to deal with this threat and then you have to deploy it and there's again once again a deployment database and out of all of this we're going to have people and the people are going to be protected or they're going to be healed or they're going to be sick we're going to be deceased and it's going to be some number of people in each of those categories and then we have to assess so we have to assess how this virus defense system is performing and so there's reports that are produced and of course there's history so there's an assessment database so this is a functional architecture of a generic virus defense system so let's go over the virus defense system functions again surveillance the system is constantly watching the planet for unusual contagion patterns identification when an unusual contagion pattern is detected there's an attempt to identify the contagion as either known unknown or a threat threat assessment if the unusual contagion pattern is unknown it is assessed to determine if it is a threat this may include making physical contact to assess the situation what's going on you go visit the location resources assignment it's based on an assessment of the contagion threat and appropriate resources are assigned to deal with the threat the resources include tools techniques methods processes money medication infrastructure and other items available in the arsenal to fight the contagion it's basically everything available in our civilization deployment so tools are sent to intercept the unusual contagion pattern as quickly as possible and an assessment once deployment is complete assessment is performed to determine the success of the encounter now the first encounter of a visual confirmation and reassessment to a known contagion is typically all that it's needed okay okay we took a look it's not that bad we know what it is we understand that we know how to deal with it okay a new contagion deployment that follows is meant to remove the threat and assessment of the event is performed okay so we have our virus defense system functions now we need subsystems that will actually go off and implement those functions this is going to start to form basically an architecture so what are the subsystems to perform these functions well we have the us government as a subsystem we have the world health organization as a subsystem we have non-us nation state resources as a subsystem in other words all of the other countries out there we have academic resources as a subsystem we have our business industrial base resources as a subsystem and then we have our press and in particular our us press subsystem and they essentially implement the functions now that we have our functions and we have our systems we can perform an allocation and then we can actually assess what happened with the system the overall system so if we take a look at surveillance we see that that function is performed by multiple subsystems but most of those subsystems are secondary there's a primary system subsystem out there and that is the us government the reality is after world war ii the united states took the lead in all of these areas and they were viewed as the primary subsystem not only for surveillance but identification threat assessment resources assignment deployment and assessment now we have these other subsystems out there and the world health organization was a primary subsystem that also is involved in assessment and then we have the u.s press the u.s press is also a primary subsystem that's supposed to deal with and understand threat assessment what's going on out there what are their findings and they're also supposed to assess the situation they're also a primary subsystem in assessment so what happened the u.s failed all of those subsystems failed every single one of them the world health organization it failed in its assessment and then the u.s press it failed in its threat assessment and it failed in its overall assessment of the entire situation sorry but this is what happened this is where we were i'm not sure if this is where we still are with the new administration it's difficult to say all I can say is the system is enormous there's a lot of hysteresis and once you turn it on it's going to take a long time for these functions to kick in and start performing the details of why the u.s government failed on each of these subsystems and how I arrived at this conclusion is in the research report there's tables on in there and there's just a lot of information and it clearly shows that this is the result a key area in the research is also the vaccine from a system's perspective what does it mean if we introduce the vaccine how effective is it really going to be how will a system really perform from the system's analysis we see that the vaccine is not enough a lot of people are going to die and it's unclear what's going to happen moving forward as the virus mutates and with future contagions of this nature something has happened with our infrastructure it has changed and the reality is again I can't stress to see enough the vaccine is not enough and we have to start to rethink what's going on with our heating ventilation cooling systems they need to be properly maintained in some cases the air update changes need to be increased inside of certain spaces we need to start understanding that we have to introduce things like ceiling level uv lights and far uv 222 lights to help deal with these kinds of disasters especially in settings like large areas venues where people gather in an airport situation the space is huge there's a lot of ventilation but because of the way we're handling security today people are right on top of each other and we're not talking about 10 or 20 people we're talking about 5 000 people a thousand people 800 people enormous sources of infection so from a systems perspective once again the vaccine is not enough it's not just about the number of people who are going to get sick and die it also has to do with how long it's going to take to eradicate the virus and the reality is the more we can reduce the virus load in the environment the quicker we can eradicate the virus so as far as the subsystem where we just rely on the vaccine we have acceptance distribution we have annual vaccinations until we eradicate the thing and who knows how many years it's going to take I identified as v years it's going to take two to five years to fully implement in the u.s and the reality is it's probably going to take 20 years because that's what's happened in the past on a global scale so that's what we're looking at in terms of eradication if we just rely on the vaccine now what does it mean if we were to update our uv infrastructure we know what the numbers are how quickly and how much the virus can be reduced just by introducing these things into the infrastructure the reality is this stuff's not that expensive especially when you compare it to shutdown costs and the costs of life so these things can be rolled out within a year so there's going to be immediate impact within a year ventilation recommendations the simple task of hey you know turn on your heating ventilation cooling system make sure it's running while the people are inside the facility turn it on an hour or two hours before they arrive at the facility leave it on two or one or two hours after they leave the facility and hey by the way you can probably upgrade it and have new fans put in there to boost the er update changes from one to six for example or from six to ten these are not big costly items it's just common sense and it can happen within a month if we're talking about massive ventilation upgrades I understand we understand there are systems out there that just can't be upgraded there are problems but they can be dealt with and they can be dealt with very quickly within a year you just make the money available again it's not that much money compared to shutdown costs and loss of life and the money that we've already how can I put this allocated to this disaster it's trivial compared to what's needed to upgrade all of the ventilation everywhere in the united states so this is what we're looking at we can reduce our eradication time from decades to years we can get rid of this it's just a matter of our will it's a social problem it's a social issue so here it is this is where it began it began in 1937 there was a study between 1937 and 1943 prepared by the University of Pennsylvania folks you see uv lights placed at the top there of those bookshelves and there go to students this is today Columbia University the folks over there did research to try to figure out which frequencies can eliminate the virus make it inactive and they found the frequency they also found that that frequency doesn't harm humans other organisms and this is on their research documentation it's an airport and you see the far uv 222 lights installed this technology is possible because of the new led technology that surfaced the new leds can be tuned to these very narrow frequencies and it's a very cost effective solution this is a very sad slide because we see that some schools are actually upgrading their facilities and it's happening all around the country there is no guidance from the government it's difficult to understand whether these systems work whether properly installed et cetera doesn't matter what matters is some schools are being upgraded and others are not why this is a huge issue so this is a modern day school that decided to implement ceiling level uv fixtures inside their facility so here go the uv infrastructure cost estimates for schools these are the numbers we're looking at three billion dollars for commercial office space seven billion dollars for retail we're looking at 16 billion dollars and for industrial property we're looking at 22 billion dollars this is based on the school uv design and hvac upgrade estimates that were performed in the research now you can double these numbers we see that these costs are trivial again it's just a matter of will and then also ensuring that once these systems are installed they're installed by reputable organizations and that they're tested in a meaningful way using engineering approaches and that how can I put this politely snake oil is not being sold so there's an old term it's called elephant in the room everyone is doing all kinds of analysis they're looking at the system and some folks are trying to figure out how many angels are dancing on the head of a pen others are claiming the pin doesn't exist but angels exist and vice versa but someone eventually says wait a minute there's a huge elephant in the room and everyone kind of sits back and they blurred out something in this particular case I'm blurting out facilities that's the huge elephant in the room in the past a typical design review that was from a systems driven program or project if we took a look at all of the different things that happened during design review there'd be an order the most important things would be at the top or maybe in the middle depending how you wanted to structure things whether you wanted to really scare people in the beginning or whether you wanted to get them to be comfortable deal with the simple things that everyone agrees with in the middle in the beginning and then in the middle hit them with the really challenging issues but facilities was always considered low risk it was always at the bottom that's no longer the case now that we have covert 19 the design review moving forward for the foreseeable future and all systems driven activities facilities needs to be the number one item period that's it everything else is just considered low risk moving forward so the facilities design review it would include layout heating ventilation cooling requirements the hvac design hvac filtration considerations air monitoring and now it needs to include ceiling level uvc design far uv 222 design uv monitoring and then of course maintenance of these systems now here's a key observation many facilities cannot be upgraded with new hvac systems so what are we going to do are we going to tear down those buildings how do we proceed forward the only effective alternative is ceiling level uvc lights and or far uv uv-222 systems so this system's research also included an analysis of airplanes and airports there's empirical data out there going back to 2003 we have an outbreak of sars on a three-hour flight from Hong Kong to Beijing and we see the passengers seated in this airplane up at the top here and we see that there were outbreaks and the resulting r0 over there which is very interesting everyone talks about r0 and what's going on in general within an entire country or a county or a city or state but in this particular setting the system boundary is that airplane what is the r0 on that airplane well the r0 is 22. if we go down and look below we see in this particular case there was a sars COVID 19 outbreak calling it sars COVID 2. that was a 10 hour flight from London to Hanoi in march of 2020 and in this particular case we see that the r0 was 15. there's a lot of details in here you know like for example some people did not want to get interviewed so there's pieces of data missing doesn't matter we see that there was significant infection on both of these flights there is an additional flight in the research it's not shown here but the story is the same I'm not going to depart what many view as traditional engineering and go into another area but this actually does fall under the category of systems engineering because in systems engineering you have to consider everything not just the machines not just the technology you have to also consider the people and you have to consider the systems that they have to live under so in this particular case we see that something happened with the us government we engaged in an experiment that started approximately 1980 where the U.S. government decided to privatize a lot of the functions that it used to do in the past and I say it what I mean by it is the people allowed it to happen whether they knew about it is unclear whether they understood the implications of it is unclear but there's this block diagram over here showing the functions of the government the inputs the outputs and who or what is performing those functions and we see that we have two bold blocks over here where we have privatized services for profit subsystem and for-profit defense based subsystem those things are new they surfaced as a result of privatization and there's implications and I talk about this in my purple book extensively but it's part of this research because in 2020 the federal government did not martial resources it left the problem to the states and this system research predicted this and now it is history day one when the COVID 19 broke out that was one of the first items I started to add into the research because I had this background I knew how the federal government was going to behave and the fundamental question is why in 2021 the us had an insurrection so there's something very serious happening in the united states this systems engineering is trivial yet there's nothing like it out there there's only useless vague guidance and the question is why a lot of people have gotten sick a lot of people have died essentially our civilization has been shut down what is going on now the findings suggest that privatization and deregulation are the root cause you have to see the research discussion for the details one of the big issues is propaganda and disinformation essentially to prop up a failed system and the failed system is this privatized and deregulated system it's not working and how can I put this in order to prop up this system those that have vested interests in it are just engaging in constant constant propaganda disinformation and the reality is it's all just and this is coming from philosopher Harry g Frankfurt when he tried to understand what's going on with our institutions and at the time when he created wrote this book created this idea this idea of privatization and deregulation yes it was known but I did not have my book out there yet so he didn't have the benefit of my analysis for example now as part of this whole broad area I have a piece scale that I developed several years ago associated with an activity called systems engineering for peace and it's offered to try to figure out where we might be as part of the activity associated with peace systems engineering a conflict prediction scale was developed and it's essentially a risk management approach to trying to understand conflict prediction and what we have is we have on one side the amount of suffering that's happening in the population and then on the other side we have the amount of happiness and the suffering is associated with rose in this particular case and happiness is associated with columns in this case so 1s is basically no suffering is detected 2s is rumors of suffering 3s is suffering is detected and 4 is there's massive suffering happiness basically one age all are happy two most are happy 3h some are happy and 4h none are happy and then there's this idea of conflict 1c no conflict is detected 2c there's rumors of conflict 3c conflict is detected and 4c there's massive conflict so if you have massive suffering and none are happy the end result is that you're going to have 4c you're going to have massive conflict so we have our green zones we have our yellow zones and we have our red zones now here's the issue if we take a look at what happened with the insurrection in the united states with 20 in 2021 it does not match the plight of the insurrectionists specifically the 4s item there is no massive suffering they may be very unhappy but how does that equate to suffering it doesn't make sense the analysis continues with trying to understand conflict ranges again what we see here is a risk management matrix of sorts and it's again based on suffering and happiness and if we take a look at our levels of suffering and happiness we can sort of detect what should be reasonable levels of conflict for example if we see massive suffering and none are happy then we should see cd which is armed conflict I mean that would be the logical approach now again this does not match the plight of the insurrectionists we had armed conflict occur during that insurrection so again one could understand that they're unhappy but where is the mass of suffering this is the potential for system and stability again it's based on measuring levels of suffering and levels of happiness and then equating those levels to the condition of the system we move from a stable system to an unstable system to a situation where collapse is intimate to a collapsed system again the insurrectionists in 2021 have introduced massive instability into the system and again why one can understand they're not happy once again but where's the massive suffering the only explanation here is propaganda and disinformation now here's the deal without worldwide communications oppress there is a serious peace system collapse world communications and the press is the start of an effective peace system now communications has changed the internet has displaced various previous mechanisms and those previous mechanisms had a few hundred years of evolution previous communications mechanisms were difficult to compromise on a worldwide scale okay a particular nation state might collapse its press might fall apart but on a worldwide scale that was not happening there was always opposing views even if propaganda or disinformation was found in various areas and perhaps in large numbers of areas now what happens with the internet may determine what happens with world peace because we see that something has happened it's big and it has had a huge impact you're probably wondering what just happened we transitioned from a discipline that concentrates on the design and application of the whole system as distinct from the parts two it involves looking at the problem in its entirety taking into account all facets and all the variables and relating the social to the technical aspect this research content is being maintained on the internet the link is shown here again this research is based on multiple books that I’ve written we have systems practices as common sense these are again techniques practices that we use as systems engineers to try to understand and develop viable systems systems engineering design this attempts to identify the magic sauce that takes us from a blank sheet of paper to a working design that no one can quite figure out how we get there but we get there somehow and then we have privatization a systems perspective and this was the first time where the systems approach was used to try to understand what's going on outside of a traditional technology kind of solution in this particular case what's happened with our government what's happened with our society and now we have coveted 19 a systems perspective using basically the framework that was developed and privatization a systems perspective this presentation was just a very small snapshot of what's in this research the book has more than what's online thank you