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COVID-19 A Systems Perspective

The COVID-19 pandemic is a massive disaster. Returning to normal life will not be a trivial exercise. A systems perspective will be used to understand the COVID-19 disaster and the Return to Life systems that will be developed. In a systems engineering effort for a problem of this magnitude all technologies and products are examined that may be able to address the need and provide a viable solution. This requires massive resources and in the past the US Federal Government and a handful of systems engineering companies performed this type of systems engineering. This is called large complex systems engineering. Examples of large complex systems engineering from the previous century are the Telephone system, Radio and Television, US Space Program, Air Defense, Air Traffic Control, etc. Systems engineering is the mechanism that allows specialists to quickly and effectively communicate their analysis to completely different areas and significantly shift the overall results in a positive direction. This book is in that spirit of an effective systems engineering activity. As time moves on this book will capture the history of the COVID-19 disaster and the struggle to stop it and all other future health disasters in its wake.

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Preface

In 2008 I was requested to support universities to help bring back systems thinking and systems engineering as practiced in our industrial base and government from approximately 1945 to 1995. This led me to write Three university textbooks on systems engineering, develop course material, teach, and help to establish and shape the direction of university systems engineering curriculum and master's degrees.

Many times, I was asked if this knowledge should be offered outside traditional engineering programs. Each time my response was no because I wanted roots to be established within the engineering education programs. I now realize that systems knowledge needs to be embedded in all forms of education at all levels.

I grew up in a very different world where systems knowledge and thinking were a way of life. It was everywhere. I first learned about it in elementary school when we were taught that we had a system of government, how the system was structured, how it operated, and why we had this system of government.

Just like systems thinking, knowledge, and engineering has disappeared in most companies and government, it has also disappeared from our social fabric. This has resulted in many negative consequences as we struggle to figure out what is happening and how to correct course for a better future.

My previous books were about teaching systems engineering, systems design and systems thinking. This book is about applying this very powerful approach to understanding and solving problems associated with the COVID-19 disaster.

I considered adding significant content from my previous textbooks to try and offer insight into systems thinking, design, and engineering but I realized the key message in this book would be lost. I encourage readers to seek out my textbooks if they are interested in systems. There is a systems perspectives section that some may view as large, but it is small compared to the full knowledge base.

My areas of study are systems engineering and systems application to complex technical and social challenges. I hope that you consider following the same studies.

This book like all my other books could use a great editor. It is filled with bad grammar, bad spelling, poor sentence structure, and just hard to read. All I can say is if you make it through this book you may enjoy the adventure. It may help add some positive value to your adventures. It may even help policy makers moving forward to make more informed decisions.

This is a very sad subject but it is probably the most important subject to study in the next few decades. Our focus is on the COVID-19 disaster from a systems perspective.


Instructor Information

Systems thinking and engineering has traditionally been offered to engineering students. However with the serious challenges in this new century there is a realization that systems knowledge needs to be embedded in all forms of education at all levels. There is a need to apply systems thinking and engineering especially in the areas of major policy decisions in and out of industry. The COVID-19 disaster can be used as an example throughout your course.

Perspective Students: all students, engineering, government administration, political scientists, historians, teachers, pre-law, pre-med, liberal arts, science, etc.

Textbook: COVID-19 A Systems Perspective, Walter Sobkiw, 2021.


Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION 1
ABOUT THE COVER 2
IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEMS RESEARCH 2

1918 FLU PANDEMIC AND COVID-19 DISASTER 4
COVID-19 NOT FOLLOWING 1918 TREND 7
COVID-19 PREDICTIONS 9
QUICK SUMMARY 15
CURRENT AND FUTURE VIRUS ERADICATION FINDINGS 17
PROPERLY OPENING SCHOOLS AND OTHER PUBLIC BUILDINGS 20
TECHNICAL SYSTEMS ENGINEERING FINDINGS 24
NON-TECHNICAL FINDINGS - US GOVERNMENT POLICY 29

STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS 31
LESSONS FROM CHINA 31
RETURN TO WORK NEEDS 31
STAKEHOLDER NEEDS AND REQUIREMENTS - SYSTEM COMPLEXITY 32
WHO GUIDANCE 33
STUDENTS AND TEACHERS RETURNING BACK TO SCHOOL 34
OTHER REQUIREMENTS 36
STAKEHOLDERS LIST 37

VIRUS DEFENSE SYSTEM 38
FUNCTIONAL ANALYSIS 41
SUBSYSTEMS 44
PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT 44

DEATH RATES 50
DEATH RATES BY COUNTRY 54
Data View 1 - Performance Scale 54
Data View 2 - Performance Scale With Additional Data 55

US FAILURE TO CONTAIN THE VIRUS 62
Quarantine 63
Surveillance Systems 66
Contact Tracing 67

ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS - TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE 72

RETURN TO LIFE SYSTEMS PERFORMANCE 76

LIFE EXPECTANCY 81
LONG TERM HEALTH EFFECTS 88

INDOOR OUTDOOR VENTILATION 92

HVAC SYSTEMS 92
HVAC Background 93
Building Retrofit Technologies Including UV 94
Enhanced particle filtration 95
Sorption based gaseous air cleaning 95
Ultraviolet germicidal irradiation (UVGI) 96
Photocatalytic oxidation air cleaning (PCO) 96
Work area treatment 96

ULTRAVIOLET GERMICIDAL IRRADIATION (UVGI) - OPEN AIR 97
UV-C Ceiling Level Lights 97
History 99
UV Radiation 100
Cellular Effects And Health Issues 101
Upper-Room UVGI Systems Effectiveness 103
Upper-Room UVGI Systems Installation 105
FAR UV-222 Full Illumination 107
AIR FLOW RATES AND NATURAL VENTILATION 113
Air Update Rates CDC And Other Guidelines 113
World Health Organization Natural Ventilation 115
What if Analysis 117
Airplanes - Brute Force 119
Computer Labs - Brute Force 119
Old Building Architectures - Engineered Solution 119
Case History 120
New Building Architectures - Engineered Solution 120
Models 121
Sneeze Analysis Model 121
Virus Load Air Exchanges Needed Model 122
Event Based Air Exchanges Needed Model 124
Probability of Exposure Air Exchanges Needed Model 124
CDC Airborne Contaminant Removal Model 125
Full Picture Static Model 126
Natural And Mechanical Ventilation Designs 127
Observations 129

DESIGN SOLUTIONS 130
HVAC And Open Ventilation Design Solutions 130
UV-C Ventilation Design Solutions 132
FAR UV-222 Design Solutions 140
UV Infrastructure Cost Estimates 143
Ventilation Test And Evaluation 144
Where Is Industry 150
Real Time Monitoring Of Air Flow Conditions 158

PROPOSED LEGISLATION 158

VIRUS TRANSMISSION 162
Infection And Body Response 163
Virus Transmission Mental Model 163
Virus Transmission Case Histories 169
Restaurants 169
Workplace 171
Choir 172
Indoor sports 172
Funeral / Birthday Party / Personal Care / Church 172
Funeral 172
Birthday Party 173
Personal Care 173
Church 173
Various Settings In China 173
Meat Packing Plants 173
Nursing Homes 174
Case Studies Observations 175
Droplets Versus Aerosols 176
Virus and Bacteria Sizes 181
Virus Mutations & Architecture Solutions 184

VIRUS DIFFUSION 193
Virus Density By Distance (Electrical Engineering) 193
Virus Diffusion By Distance And Windspeed (Nuclear Engineering) 194
Virus Density By Volume And Air Mixing (Engineering) 197
Virus Density By Mask Filtering Levels (Engineering) 199
Virus Density By Distance And Mask Filtering Levels (Engineering) 200
NIST FaTIMA 201
Wells-Riley Equation 202
Wells-Riley Summary 202
Wells-Riley Details Indoors 205
Wells-Riley Details Outside 208

CURRENT US INFRASTRUCTURE VIRUS CONCENTRATION 213
Virus Concentration (HVAC Industry Engineering) 213
Current US Infrastructure Key Findings 216
Infrastructure Modifications 216

CLASSROOM & OTHER DESIGNS 217
Classroom Design Validation 220
Key Stakeholder Statements 223
American Federation Of Teachers 226
HVAC Industry 226
Virus Diffusion Other Indoor Designs 228

PERSONALLY DEALING WITH ENCLOSED SPACES 228
Virus Diffusion By Distance And Windspeed 231
Virus Density By Volume And Air Mixing 232
Virus Density By Distance And Mask Filtering Levels 234
Wells Riley Probability Of Infection 235
Public Transportation 236
Virus Exposure Risk (Ver) 239
Modeling Equations 242

AIRPLANES AND AIRPORTS 248

CERTIFICATION 255
SYSTEM OR PRODUCT CERTIFICATION 256
PFIZER BIONTECH PHASE 1 2 3 STUDY PROTOCOL 259
CERTIFICATION FAILURE 262
FDA CERTIFICATION FAILURE 263
FAA CERTIFICATION FAILURE 264

VACCINES 267
KEY VACCINE REQUIREMENTS AND REALITY 267
VACCINE APPROACHES 268
21ST CENTURY VACCINE 269
Pfizer/BioNTech Vaccine 270
Why This Works 271
Allergic Reactions 272
Unintended Consequences Of RNA Therapy 272
Healthcare Worker Assessment 273
Summary 273
Longer Summary 274
Mechanism 274
Ingredients 274
Effectiveness 274
Side Effects 274
Vaccinated Mask And Social Distancing 276
Moderna Vaccine 277
mRNA Vaccine Ingredients 278

US GOVERNMENT ACTIONS TO DEVELOP VACCINE 280
Operation Warp Speed 283
Single Privatized Contract Approach Implications 288
FDA Approval Pfizer-BioNTech Vaccine 290
FDA Approval Moderna Vaccine 293
FDA Approval Janssen Vaccine 296
VACCINE SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE 299
VACCINE DISTRIBUTION 302
SUCCESSFUL MASSIVE VACCINATION PROGRAM EXAMPLE 307
OTHER COUNTRIES 308

VIRUS DECONTAMINATION 311
DECONTAMINATION BACKGROUND AND SOLUTIONS 311
Materials 311
UV-C Lights 311
Hydrogen Peroxide Vapor 311
Hospitals, Clean Room, And Military Technologies 312
FAR-UV 222 Lights 312
DISINFECTANTS AND INACTIVATING AGENTS 313
DECONTAMINATION ARCHITECTURES 315
System Settings 316
Decontamination Architecture Approaches And System Settings 316
Vendors And Hard To Find Industrial Vendors 322
Home Protocols 323
Healthcare Based Perspective 325
Engineering Based Perspective 329

RISK AND CONFIDENCE LEVELS ANALYSIS 330

DREAM AND HORROR ARCHITECTURES 332
DREAM ARCHITECTURE 332
HORROR ARCHITECTURE 333

FACILITIES 335

ACTION PLAN 343

SYSTEM COLLAPSE 345

GOVERNMENT FAILURE 347
Government Privatization 348
Government Privatization Background 351
Key Requirements To Fix The Existing System 352
Root Cause Analysis 355
MANAGEMENT FAILURE 356
INDUSTRIAL BASE FAILURE 359
SECOND WAVE ACCOUNTABILITY 361
US INSURRECTION 2021 374
PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION 378
PRESIDENTIAL IMPEACHMENTS 379
NEW ADMINISTRATION IN WASHINGTON DC 387
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN 403

SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVES 404
A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO RESEARCH 405
Fundamental and Applied Research 408
Problem Solving in a Body of Knowledge 408
Journalism 409
Industrial Revolution Research Development and Product 409
Systems Engineering 410
Applied Research Labs 412
Federally Funded Research And Development Centers (FFRDC) 414
Research and Development 418
SYSTEMS APPROACH 423
FUNDAMENTALS 424
Good and Bad Systems 425
Momentum 426
Hysteresis 427
Peak Load and Burnout 428
Timing and Sizing 428
Cause and Effect and Balance of Power 428
Key Requirements Specifications and Traceability 431
System Of Government Requirements 434
Declaration of Independence 435
Constitution and Amendments 438
Creativity and Innovation Process 457
Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs 460
Ethics 463
ORGANIZATIONAL CAPABILITIES 464
STAKEHOLDERS AND NEEDS 465
Possible Stakeholders 466
Divergent Stakeholders 468
Needs Analysis 469
Problem Solving in Mathematics and Engineering 470
Problem Solving in a Body of Knowledge 470
Filling a Market Void 470
Fulfilling the Market Need 471
Assessing Market Need Value 472
Nonmarket Social Needs 472
SYSTEM BOUNDARY 474
Context Diagram 474
Concept Diagram 477
FUNCTIONS PERFORMANCE AND SUBSYSTEMS 478
Functional Decomposition 479
Allocations 480
Balance and Performance Levels 482
Performance Allocation 484
Performance Critical Functions and Requirements 485
SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE 487
ARCHITECTURE AND VALUE SYSTEMS 490
Financial Metrics and Value 491
Economics 101 492
Supply and Demand 493
Cost Shifting and Life Cycle Costs 497
Measure of Effectiveness 498
Architecture Identification and Tradeoff Selection 500
Architecture Types 501
Centralized Architecture 502
Fully Distributed Architecture 503
MENTAL MODELS AND VALIDATION 503
SYSTEM IMPLEMENTATION 505
PREVIOUS CENTURY SYSTEMS 506
MISUSE OF TECHNOLOGY 515
SUSTAINABILITY AND PROGRESS 516
Progress 517
Growth 518
Space Program 518
Internal versus External System Sustainability 519
Sustainability Push Versus Pull 521
Moving Forward 523
Going Backward 524
Approaches from Our Civilization 526
Sustainability Practitioners 528
LARGE COMPLEX SYSTEMS 528
Mission Critical Systems 528
Technology Readiness Levels 529
Safety 533
Hazards 533
Safety Mitigation 534
Security 535
Threat Assessment 536
Security Perimeter 536
Inherent Security No Security Perimeters 537
Penetration Analysis 537
Compartmentalization or Need to Know 538
Authentication 538
Access Control 539
Privileges 539
Nonrepudiation 539
Basic Security Systems 540
Security and Simplicity 541
Security Overhead Impacts 541
Security Logging and Auditing 541
Fail Secure 541
Security Monitor 542
Additional Information Security Elements 542
Secure Architectures 542
Security Abuse 543
Sources of Security Failure 543
Fault Tolerance and Fail-Safe 544
Human Factors 545
Human Factors Basics 547
Ventilation 547
Sensory Cognitive Data Information Overload 549
Protecting Humans from Themselves 550
Circadian Sleep Rest Cycles 550
Ethics in Human Factors 553
Certification 554
Non-Deterministic and Artificial Intelligence Systems 556
SYSTEM DESIGN THEORY PHILOSOPHIES AND ART 557
Art 558
Designers and Medium 560
Critical Thinking 560
Scientific Method 563
Deductive and Inductive Reasoning 565
Socratic Method 566
Rational and Action Centric Design Models 568
Linear and Nonlinear Thinking 570
Systems Thinking 573
Systems Theory Thoughts 574
SOCIAL ARCHITECTURE OBSERVATIONS 584
SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE COMMENTS 586
CLOSING REMARKS 587
BIBLIOGRAPHY 591
COVID-19 591
Research 591
Internet Databases 601
World Health Organization 601
Government 602
Books 605
Wikipedia 605
Popular Media 606
Industry 613
SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVES 614
INDEX 617

Tables

Table 1 2020 COVID-19 Disaster Prediction Assumptions 1 to 3 Results 8
Table 2 Vaccination Results 10
Table 3 System To Eradicate Current and Future Viruses 17
Table 4 Virus Eradication Time 18
Table 5 Various Disease Herd Immunity Levels 19
Table 6 Stakeholder List 37
Table 7 Virus Defense Functions 42
Table 8 Epidemic Pandemic Functional Decomposition 44
Table 9 Virus Defense Functions Assessment 45
Table 10 Virus Defense Functions and Resources 45
Table 11 Infection and Death Rates (Actual and Projections) 50
Table 12 Case fatality rates (%) by age and country 52
Table 13 Case fatality rates (%) by age in the United States 53
Table 14 Infection Fatality Rates & Probability of Severe Disease 53
Table 15 US Wars Battle Deaths 53
Table 16 Early Cases & Deaths by Country 56
Table 17 Return To Life Systems Performance Green 76
Table 18 Return To Life Systems Performance Yellow 78
Table 19 Return To Life Systems Performance Orange 78
Table 20 Return To Life Systems Performance Red 79
Table 21 Life Expectancy 81
Table 22 Life Expectancy & Technology 86
Table 23 COVID-19 Long Term Health Effects - No Numbers 90
Table 24 UV Applications 100
Table 25 UV Exposure Infection Destruction Time 102
Table 26 UV Infection Destruction Power Density and AUC 103
Table 27 FAR UV-222 and Other UV Applications 109
Table 28 FAR UV-222 Virus & Inactivation Percent 110
Table 29 FAR UV-222 Virus Inactivation Power Density 110
Table 30 AUC Rates Sampling (Various Standards) 114
Table 31 ACH Rates Min and Max (Various Standards) 115
Table 32 ACH rates WHO Natural Ventilation 116
Table 33 AUC Maximum Rates 118
Table 34 Sneeze Analysis 121
Table 35 Virus Load Air Exchanges Needed 122
Table 36 Event Based Air Exchanges Needed 124
Table 37 Probability of Exposure Air Exchanges Needed 124
Table 38 CDC Airborne Contaminant Removal Model 125
Table 39 Full Picture Static Model 126
Table 40 HVAC And Open Ventilation 130
Table 41 Small Building Design Example 130
Table 42 UV Industry Vendors and Organizations 134
Table 43 Vendor Datasheet 135
Table 44 Vendor Datasheet 135
Table 45 UV-C Whole House Design 135
Table 46 UV-C HOA Club House Design 136
Table 47 UV-C Permissible Exposure Times (PET) 137
Table 48 FAR UV-222 Companies and Organizations 141
Table 49 UV-222 House Design 142
Table 50 UV-222 HOA Club House Design 142
Table 51 UV Infrastructure Cost Estimates 143
Table 52 Infection Rate Mental Model Data 164
Table 53 R0 for Diseases SARS MERS COVID-19 177
Table 54 Virus Bacteria and Sizes 181
Table 55 Virus Mitigation Subsystems Performance 187
Table 56 Mutated Virus Mitigation Architecture Tradeoff 188
Table 57 Previous Architecture Alternatives 191
Table 58 Dilution Based On Distance 194
Table 59 Dilution Based on Wind and Distance 195
Table 60 - Dilution Wind Distance Risks Locations Scenarios 195
Table 61 Indoor Space With Massive Air Mixing 197
Table 62 Indoor Space With No Air Mixing 198
Table 63 Indoor Mask Effects No Social Distancing No Ventilation 199
Table 64 Indoor Mask Effects With Social Distancing No Ventilation 200
Table 65 Wells-Riley Equation Scenarios Summary 203
Table 66 Wells-Riley Equation Scenarios Details Indoors 205
Table 67 Wells-Riley Equation Scenarios Details Outside No Masks 208
Table 68 Nuclear Engineering Model Outside Infection Scenarios 211
Table 69 Current US Infrastructure Virus Concentration 215
Table 70 Outdoor Risk Settings 231
Table 71 Indoor Ventilated Risk Settings 232
Table 72 Indoor Unventilated Risk Settings 233
Table 73 Mask Risk Settings 234
Table 74 Wells-Riley Probability Scenarios Summary 235
Table 75 Ground Public Transit Probability of Infection 238
Table 76 Virus Exposure Risk - Distance 239
Table 77 Virus Exposure Risk - Distance and Wind 240
Table 78 Virus Exposure Risk - Well-Riley Probability 241
Table 79 Modeling Equations 242
Table 80 2020 Holiday Travel Infections and Deaths 252
Table 81 Certification Approach 256
Table 82 Local Reaction Grading Scale 260
Table 83 Systemic Event Grading Scale 261
Table 84 Scale of Fever 261
Table 85 Vaccine Approaches 268
Table 86 Vaccine Platforms 268
Table 87 Vaccine Types and Immunity Responses 268
Table 88 mRNA Vaccine Ingredients 278
Table 89 Operation Warp Speed Companies 280
Table 90 Vaccine Systems Perspective 300
Table 91 Initial Vaccine Delivery Rate 304
Table 92 Vaccine Delivery Rate Model 304
Table 93 Doses Received and Vaccinations Given 304
Table 94 Vaccination Distribution Systems Performance Jan 2021 308
Table 95 Disinfectants and Inactivating Agents 314
Table 96 Decontamination Architecture Approaches 316
Table 97 Products Vendors and Associations 322
Table 98 Scenarios and Exposure Risk 324
Table 99 Home Protocols 325
Table 100 Risk of Infection with Masks and Quarantine 328
Table 101 Engaging in Life Events Risk and Confidence Levels 1 of 2 330
Table 102 Engaging in Life Events Risk and Confidence Levels 2 of 2 331
Table 103 Pre-COVID-19 Systems Engineering Design Review 335
Table 104 Safe Facilities and Vaccine 335
Table 105 Post COVID-19 Systems Engineering Design Review 336
Table 106 President Trump Quotes During COVID-19 Disaster 363
Table 107 Suffering and Happiness Potential for Conflict 376
Table 108 Suffering and Happiness Potential Conflict Ranges 376
Table 109 Suffering and Happiness Potential for System Instability 377
Table 110 Requirement Traceability Matrix (RTM) 432
Table 111 Parent Child Report 433
Table 112 Child Parent Report 433
Table 113 Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs and Democracy Stability 462
Table 114 Generic List of Stakeholders 466
Table 115 Internal Sustainability and Maturity Levels 519
Table 116 Our Progress to Date 525
Table 117 Technology Readiness Levels - NASA 529
Table 118 Security Threat Assessment Levels 536
Table 119 Penetration Analysis Criteria 538
Table 120 Caffeine Levels 552
Table 121 Socratic Method General Questions 568
Table 122 System Management Tools 578
Table 123 What Applies to All Systems 579
Table 124 Social Architecture Types and Characteristics 584

Figures

Figure 1 1918 Flu Pandemic 4
Figure 2 2020 COVID-19 Disaster Prediction Assumption 1 5
Figure 3 2020 COVID-19 Disaster Prediction Assumption 2 6
Figure 4 2020 COVID-19 Disaster Prediction Assumption 3 6
Figure 5 2020 COVID-19 Disaster 7
Figure 6 2021 COVID-19 Disaster Departs 1918 Trend 8
Figure 7 Virus Defense System Functional Block Diagram 43
Figure 8 COVID-19 Life Expectancy Change 85
Figure 9 Swarthmore Public School Classroom circa 1937 - 1943 98
Figure 10 Skin UV Damage 101
Figure 11 FAR UV-222 Lights Installed 108
Figure 12 Natural and Mechanical Ventilation Buildings 128
Figure 13 Hospital Room Positive/Negative Pressure 129
Figure 14 Swarthmore Public School Classroom 133
Figure 15 Public School UV Light Installation circa 2020 138
Figure 16 Public School UV Light Installation circa 1937 - 1943 138
Figure 17 FAR UV-222 Airport Application 141
Figure 18 Airplane Passenger Compartment 146
Figure 19 Enclosed Space 146
Figure 20 Outdoor Space Tent 147
Figure 21 Outdoor Open Space 147
Figure 22 Student Desk Negative Pressure Vents 148
Figure 23 Workstation Negative Pressure Vents 148
Figure 24 Restaurant Table Negative Pressure Vents 149
Figure 25 Crowd Negative Pressure Vents 149
Figure 26 Negative Pressure Floor, Walkway, Pad 150
Figure 27 Droplet and Aerosol Transmission 151
Figure 28 Droplets and Aerosols Sneeze Cough and Exhale 152
Figure 29 Droplets and Aerosols Mask Mitigation 153
Figure 30 Airflow Airplane Passenger Area Mask Mitigation 154
Figure 31 Airflow Car Closed Windows Mask Mitigation 155
Figure 32 Airflow Car Open Windows Mask Mitigation 156
Figure 33 Airflow Hospital Mask Mitigation 156
Figure 34 Airflow Hospital Ceiling Fans Mask Mitigation 157
Figure 35 Restaurant Exposure 170
Figure 36 Workplace Exposure 171
Figure 37 Indoor Classroom Converted to Outdoor Environment 219
Figure 38 Open Windows Public School Cafeteria circa 1908 220
Figure 39 Classroom Design Swarthmore Public School 220
Figure 40 Classroom Ventilation On 221
Figure 41 Classroom Ventilation Off 222
Figure 42 R0 Airplane Flight Hong Kong to Beijing on March 15, 2003 249
Figure 43 R0 Airplane Flight London to Hanoi on March 2, 2020 250
Figure 44 Probability of Contact With Infected Person On Airplane 251
Figure 45 Probability of Being Infected On Airplane 252
Figure 46 Operation Warp Speed Distribution Process 303
Figure 47 Philadelphia Schools COVID-19 Approach 2021 339
Figure 48 Facilities Swarthmore Public School Classroom 1937-1943 340
Figure 49 Facilities Public School UV Light Installation circa 2020 340
Figure 50 Facilities Airport [3] 341
Figure 51 Ideal System Convergence 345
Figure 52 Ideal System Loss 345
Figure 53 Organizational Effectiveness 346
Figure 54 Pre-Privatization US Federal Government 349
Figure 55 Post Privatization US Federal Government 350
Figure 56 Systems Architecture Big Picture 351
Figure 57 Second Wave Accountability 362
Figure 58 Research and Development 419
Figure 59 Pre-Privatization US Federal Government 420
Figure 60 Post Privatization US Federal Government 421
Figure 61 Systems Architecture Big Picture 422
Figure 62 Ideal System Convergence 425
Figure 63 Ideal System Loss 425
Figure 64 Organizational Failure Scenarios - Effectiveness over Time 426
Figure 65 Cause and Effect 429
Figure 66 Causal Relationships 429
Figure 67 Causal Relationship State Change 430
Figure 68 Document Tree 432
Figure 69 Creativity Innovation Event 459
Figure 70 Creativity Innovation Iteration 459
Figure 71 Creativity and Innovation Process 459
Figure 72 Less Obvious Stakeholders 467
Figure 73 Precisely Defined Stakeholders 468
Figure 74 Groups and Benefiting Stakeholders 468
Figure 75 Social and Market Needs in a Democracy 473
Figure 76 Generic Context Diagram 474
Figure 77 Context Diagram - Vacation House 475
Figure 78 Context Diagram - My House 476
Figure 79 Context Diagram - My House in the Community 476
Figure 80 Satellite System Concept Diagram 477
Figure 81 Functional Block Diagram Level 1 480
Figure 82 Functional Decomposition Level 2 480
Figure 83 Decomposition and Allocations 481
Figure 84 Functional Allocations 481
Figure 85 Functions Allocated to Physical Elements Become Subsystems 482
Figure 86 Unbalanced Architecture 483
Figure 87 Balanced Outstanding Physical Architecture Design 484
Figure 88 End to End System Performance Degradation 485
Figure 89 Breakthrough Outstanding Design Performance 487
Figure 90 System Architecture Development 488
Figure 91 System Architecture Abstraction Levels 488
Figure 92 System Architecture Development Sources 489
Figure 93 Supply and Demand Graphs 494
Figure 94 Offerings and Demand 496
Figure 95 Sustainable Architecture Depiction - Sankey Diagram 501
Figure 96 Centralized Architecture 502
Figure 97 Fully Distributed Architecture 503
Figure 98 Model Verification and Validation 505
Figure 99 Implementation Architecture Design and Industrial Base 506
Figure 100 Needs of the Highway Systems 1955-1984 507
Figure 101 Hughes NASA Surveyor Lunar Lander 508
Figure 102 Hughes Syncom 2 First Geosynchronous Satellite 509
Figure 103 Hughes Galileo Spacecraft 510
Figure 104 JPL Viking Lander and Mars Landscape 510
Figure 105 TRW Pioneer 10 Probe and Plaque 511
Figure 106 Voyager Space Probe 512
Figure 107 Space Shuttle 514
Figure 108 Earth Rising Seen from Moon and Neil Armstrong on Moon 519
Figure 109 Technology and Sustainability - Sankey Diagram 520
Figure 110 Sustainable Community 521
Figure 111 Infrastructure Manufacturing Services 524
Figure 112 From Necessities to Luxuries 525
Figure 113 Security Perimeter 537
Figure 114 Human Information Processing System 549
Figure 115 Work Shifts - Daily Time Allocation Alternatives 553
Figure 116 Designers and Medium 560
Figure 117 Socratic Discourse Alternatives 567
Figure 118 Action Centric Model 569
Figure 119 Linear Thinking 571
Figure 120 Nonlinear Thinking 572
Figure 121 Linear Thinking Complex Problem 572
Figure 122 Nonlinear Thinking Complex Problem 573
Figure 123 System Transfer Function with Feedback 574
Figure 124 Potential System Outputs 575
Figure 125 Single Input Single Output System 576
Figure 126 Multiple Input Multiple Output Complex Systems 577
Figure 127 System Development as a System 577
Figure 128 System Solution 578
Figure 129 Mitigating Negative Emergence 579
Figure 130 System Evolution 580
Figure 131 Architecture Validation 580
Figure 132 Prototype Validation 581
Figure 133 System Validation 581
Figure 134 Potential SEMP Diagram 584

Systems Perspectives Privatization Observations

Observation 1 Momentum 426
Observation 2 Hysteresis 427
Observation 3 Cause and Effect and Balance of Power 430
Observation 4 Key Requirements and Specifications 455
Observation 5 Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs 462
Observation 6 Ethics 463
Observation 7 Organizational Capabilities 464
Observation 8 Children Mask Needs 467
Observation 9 Divergent Stakeholder Needs 469
Observation 10 Nonmarket Social Needs 472
Observation 11 System Boundary 477
Observation 12 Functions Performance and Subsystems 479
Observation 13 Architecture Drawings 490
Observation 14 Previous Century Systems 513
Observation 15 Misuse of Technology 516
Observation 16 Sustainability and Progress 527
Observation 17 Large Complex Systems 528
Observation 18 Human Factors 548
Observation 19 Non-Deterministic and Artificial Intelligence Systems 557
Observation 20 Critical Thinking 562
Observation 21 Scientific Method 565
Observation 22 Systems Theory Thoughts 583
Observation 23 Social Architecture Observations 586