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About Us | CassBeth Publishing |
COVID-19 A Systems Perspective
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Preface
In 2008 I was requested to support universities to help bring back systems thinking and systems engineering as practiced in our industrial base and government from approximately 1945 to 1995. This led me to write Three university textbooks on systems engineering, develop course material, teach, and help to establish and shape the direction of university systems engineering curriculum and master's degrees.
Many times, I was asked if this knowledge should be offered outside traditional engineering programs. Each time my response was no because I wanted roots to be established within the engineering education programs. I now realize that systems knowledge needs to be embedded in all forms of education at all levels.
I grew up in a very different world where systems knowledge and thinking were a way of life. It was everywhere. I first learned about it in elementary school when we were taught that we had a system of government, how the system was structured, how it operated, and why we had this system of government.
Just like systems thinking, knowledge, and engineering has disappeared in most companies and government, it has also disappeared from our social fabric. This has resulted in many negative consequences as we struggle to figure out what is happening and how to correct course for a better future.
My previous books were about teaching systems engineering, systems design and systems thinking. This book is about applying this very powerful approach to understanding and solving problems associated with the COVID-19 disaster.
I considered adding significant content from my previous textbooks to try and offer insight into systems thinking, design, and engineering but I realized the key message in this book would be lost. I encourage readers to seek out my textbooks if they are interested in systems. There is a systems perspectives section that some may view as large, but it is small compared to the full knowledge base.
My areas of study are systems engineering and systems application to complex technical and social challenges. I hope that you consider following the same studies.
This book like all my other books could use a great editor. It is filled with bad grammar, bad spelling, poor sentence structure, and just hard to read. All I can say is if you make it through this book you may enjoy the adventure. It may help add some positive value to your adventures. It may even help policy makers moving forward to make more informed decisions.
This is a very sad subject but it is probably the most important subject to study in the next few decades. Our focus is on the COVID-19 disaster from a systems perspective.
Systems thinking and engineering has traditionally been offered to engineering students. However with the serious challenges in this new century there is a realization that systems knowledge needs to be embedded in all forms of education at all levels. There is a need to apply systems thinking and engineering especially in the areas of major policy decisions in and out of industry. The COVID-19 disaster can be used as an example throughout your course.
Prospective Students: all students, engineering, government administration, political scientists, historians, teachers, pre-law, pre-med, liberal arts, science, etc.
Textbook: COVID-19 A Systems Perspective, Walter Sobkiw, 2021.
INTRODUCTION 1 1918 FLU PANDEMIC AND COVID-19 DISASTER 4 COVID-19 NOT FOLLOWING 1918 TREND 7 COVID-19 PREDICTIONS 9 QUICK SUMMARY 15 CURRENT AND FUTURE VIRUS ERADICATION FINDINGS 17 PROPERLY OPENING SCHOOLS AND OTHER PUBLIC BUILDINGS 20 TECHNICAL SYSTEMS ENGINEERING FINDINGS 24 NON-TECHNICAL FINDINGS - US GOVERNMENT POLICY 29 STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS 31 LESSONS FROM CHINA 31 RETURN TO WORK NEEDS 31 STAKEHOLDER NEEDS AND REQUIREMENTS - SYSTEM COMPLEXITY 32 WHO GUIDANCE 33 STUDENTS AND TEACHERS RETURNING BACK TO SCHOOL 34 OTHER REQUIREMENTS 36 STAKEHOLDERS LIST 37 VIRUS DEFENSE SYSTEM 38 FUNCTIONAL ANALYSIS 41 SUBSYSTEMS 44 PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT 44 DEATH RATES 50 DEATH RATES BY COUNTRY 54 US FAILURE TO CONTAIN THE VIRUS 62 Quarantine 63 Surveillance Systems 66 Contact Tracing 67 ROOT CAUSE ANALYSIS - TECHNICAL PERSPECTIVE 73 RETURN TO LIFE SYSTEMS PERFORMANCE 76 LIFE EXPECTANCY 81 LONG TERM HEALTH EFFECTS 88 INDOOR OUTDOOR VENTILATION 92 HVAC SYSTEMS 92 HVAC Background 93 Building Retrofit Technologies Including UV 94 Enhanced particle filtration 95 Sorption based gaseous air cleaning 95 Ultraviolet germicidal irradiation (UVGI) 96 Photocatalytic oxidation air cleaning (PCO) 96 Work area treatment 96 ULTRAVIOLET GERMICIDAL IRRADIATION (UVGI) - OPEN AIR 97 UV-C Ceiling Level Lights 97 History 99 UV Radiation 100 Cellular Effects And Health Issues 101 Upper-Room UVGI Systems Effectiveness 103 Upper-Room UVGI Systems Installation 105 FAR UV-222 Full Illumination 107 AIR FLOW RATES AND NATURAL VENTILATION 113 Air Update Rates CDC And Other Guidelines 113 World Health Organization Natural Ventilation 115 What if Analysis 117 Airplanes - Brute Force 119 Computer Labs - Brute Force 119 Old Building Architectures - Engineered Solution 119 Case History 120 New Building Architectures - Engineered Solution 120 Models 121 Sneeze Analysis Model 121 Virus Load Air Exchanges Needed Model 122 Event Based Air Exchanges Needed Model 124 Probability of Exposure Air Exchanges Needed Model 124 CDC Airborne Contaminant Removal Model 125 Full Picture Static Model 126 Natural And Mechanical Ventilation Designs 127 Observations 129 DESIGN SOLUTIONS 130 HVAC And Open Ventilation Design Solutions 130 UV-C Ventilation Design Solutions 132 FAR UV-222 Design Solutions 140 UV Infrastructure Cost Estimates 143 Ventilation Test And Evaluation 144 Where Is Industry 150 Real Time Monitoring Of Air Flow Conditions 158 PROPOSED LEGISLATION 158 VIRUS TRANSMISSION 162 Infection And Body Response 163 Virus Transmission Mental Model 163 Virus Transmission Case Histories 169 Restaurants 169 Workplace 171 Choir 172 Indoor sports 172 Funeral / Birthday Party / Personal Care / Church 172 Funeral 172 Birthday Party 173 Personal Care 173 Church 173 Various Settings In China 173 Meat Packing Plants 173 Nursing Homes 174 Case Studies Observations 175 Droplets Versus Aerosols 176 Virus and Bacteria Sizes 181 Virus Mutations & Architecture Solutions 184 VIRUS DIFFUSION 193 Virus Density By Distance (Electrical Engineering) 193 Virus Diffusion By Distance And Windspeed (Nuclear Engineering) 194 Virus Density By Volume And Air Mixing (Engineering) 197 Virus Density By Mask Filtering Levels (Engineering) 199 Virus Density By Distance And Mask Filtering Levels (Engineering) 200 NIST FaTIMA 201 Wells-Riley Equation 202 Wells-Riley Summary 202 Wells-Riley Details Indoors 204 Wells-Riley Details Outside 208 CURRENT US INFRASTRUCTURE VIRUS CONCENTRATION 213 Virus Concentration (HVAC Industry Engineering) 213 Current US Infrastructure Key Findings 216 Infrastructure Modifications 216 CLASSROOM & OTHER DESIGNS 217 Classroom Design Validation 220 Key Stakeholder Statements 223 American Federation Of Teachers 226 HVAC Industry 226 Virus Diffusion Other Indoor Designs 228 PERSONALLY DEALING WITH ENCLOSED SPACES 228 Virus Diffusion By Distance And Windspeed 231 Virus Density By Volume And Air Mixing 232 Virus Density By Distance And Mask Filtering Levels 234 Wells Riley Probability Of Infection 235 Public Transportation 236 Virus Exposure Risk (Ver) 239 Modeling Equations 242 AIRPLANES AND AIRPORTS 248 CERTIFICATION 255 SYSTEM OR PRODUCT CERTIFICATION 256 PFIZER BIONTECH PHASE 1 2 3 STUDY PROTOCOL 259 CERTIFICATION FAILURE 262 FDA CERTIFICATION FAILURE 263 FAA CERTIFICATION FAILURE 264 VACCINES 267 KEY VACCINE REQUIREMENTS AND REALITY 267 VACCINE APPROACHES 268 21ST CENTURY VACCINE 269 Pfizer/BioNTech Vaccine 270 Why This Works 271 Allergic Reactions 272 Unintended Consequences Of RNA Therapy 272 Healthcare Worker Assessment 273 Summary 273 Longer Summary 274 Mechanism 274 Ingredients 274 Effectiveness 274 Side Effects 275 Vaccinated Mask And Social Distancing 276 Moderna Vaccine 277 mRNA Vaccine Ingredients 278 US GOVERNMENT ACTIONS TO DEVELOP VACCINE 280 Operation Warp Speed 283 Single Privatized Contract Approach Implications 288 FDA Approval Pfizer-BioNTech Vaccine 290 FDA Approval Moderna Vaccine 293 FDA Approval Janssen Vaccine 296 VACCINE SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE 299 VACCINE DISTRIBUTION 302 SUCCESSFUL MASSIVE VACCINATION PROGRAM EXAMPLE 307 OTHER COUNTRIES 308 VIRUS DECONTAMINATION 311 DECONTAMINATION BACKGROUND AND SOLUTIONS 311 Materials 311 UV-C Lights 311 Hydrogen Peroxide Vapor 311 Hospitals, Clean Room, And Military Technologies 312 FAR-UV 222 Lights 312 DISINFECTANTS AND INACTIVATING AGENTS 313 DECONTAMINATION ARCHITECTURES 315 System Settings 316 Decontamination Architecture Approaches And System Settings 316 Vendors And Hard To Find Industrial Vendors 322 Home Protocols 323 Healthcare Based Perspective 325 Engineering Based Perspective 329 RISK AND CONFIDENCE LEVELS ANALYSIS 330 DREAM AND HORROR ARCHITECTURES 332 DREAM ARCHITECTURE 332 HORROR ARCHITECTURE 333 FACILITIES 335 ACTION PLAN 343 SYSTEM COLLAPSE 345 GOVERNMENT FAILURE 347 Government Privatization 348 Government Privatization Background 351 Key Requirements To Fix The Existing System 352 Root Cause Analysis 355 MANAGEMENT FAILURE 356 INDUSTRIAL BASE FAILURE 359 SECOND WAVE ACCOUNTABILITY 361 US INSURRECTION 2021 374 PROPAGANDA AND DISINFORMATION 378 PRESIDENTIAL IMPEACHMENTS 379 NEW ADMINISTRATION IN WASHINGTON DC 387 WHAT DOES THIS MEAN 403 SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVES 404 A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO RESEARCH 405 Fundamental and Applied Research 408 Problem Solving in a Body of Knowledge 408 Journalism 409 Industrial Revolution Research Development and Product 409 Systems Engineering 410 Applied Research Labs 412 Federally Funded Research And Development Centers (FFRDC) 414 Research and Development 418 SYSTEMS APPROACH 422 FUNDAMENTALS 424 Good and Bad Systems 424 Momentum 425 Hysteresis 426 Peak Load and Burnout 427 Timing and Sizing 427 Cause and Effect and Balance of Power 428 Key Requirements Specifications and Traceability 430 System Of Government Requirements 433 Declaration of Independence 435 Constitution and Amendments 438 Creativity and Innovation Process 456 Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs 459 Ethics 462 ORGANIZATIONAL CAPABILITIES 463 STAKEHOLDERS AND NEEDS 465 Possible Stakeholders 465 Divergent Stakeholders 468 Needs Analysis 468 Problem Solving in Mathematics and Engineering 469 Problem Solving in a Body of Knowledge 469 Filling a Market Void 470 Fulfilling the Market Need 470 Assessing Market Need Value 471 Nonmarket Social Needs 471 SYSTEM BOUNDARY 473 Context Diagram 473 Concept Diagram 476 FUNCTIONS PERFORMANCE AND SUBSYSTEMS 477 Functional Decomposition 479 Allocations 479 Balance and Performance Levels 481 Performance Allocation 483 Performance Critical Functions and Requirements 484 SYSTEM ARCHITECTURE 486 ARCHITECTURE AND VALUE SYSTEMS 489 Financial Metrics and Value 490 Economics 101 491 Supply and Demand 492 Cost Shifting and Life Cycle Costs 496 Measure of Effectiveness 497 Architecture Identification and Tradeoff Selection 499 Architecture Types 500 Centralized Architecture 501 Fully Distributed Architecture 502 MENTAL MODELS AND VALIDATION 502 SYSTEM IMPLEMENTATION 504 PREVIOUS CENTURY SYSTEMS 505 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT ARCHITECTURE CHANGE 514 MISUSE OF TECHNOLOGY 518 SUSTAINABILITY AND PROGRESS 520 Progress 521 Growth 521 Space Program 522 Internal versus External System Sustainability 523 Sustainability Push Versus Pull 525 Moving Forward 527 Going Backward 528 Approaches from Our Civilization 530 Sustainability Practitioners 532 LARGE COMPLEX SYSTEMS 532 Mission Critical Systems 532 Technology Readiness Levels 533 Safety 537 Hazards 537 Safety Mitigation 538 Security 539 Threat Assessment 540 Security Perimeter 540 Inherent Security No Security Perimeters 541 Penetration Analysis 541 Compartmentalization or Need to Know 542 Authentication 542 Access Control 543 Privileges 543 Nonrepudiation 543 Basic Security Systems 544 Security and Simplicity 545 Security Overhead Impacts 545 Security Logging and Auditing 545 Fail Secure 545 Security Monitor 546 Additional Information Security Elements 546 Secure Architectures 546 Security Abuse 547 Sources of Security Failure 547 Fault Tolerance and Fail-Safe 548 Human Factors 549 Human Factors Basics 551 Ventilation 551 Sensory Cognitive Data Information Overload 553 Protecting Humans from Themselves 554 Circadian Sleep Rest Cycles 554 Ethics in Human Factors 557 Certification 558 Non-Deterministic and Artificial Intelligence Systems 560 SYSTEM DESIGN THEORY PHILOSOPHIES AND ART 561 Art 562 Designers and Medium 564 Critical Thinking 564 Scientific Method 567 Deductive and Inductive Reasoning 569 Socratic Method 570 Rational and Action Centric Design Models 572 Linear and Nonlinear Thinking 574 Systems Thinking 577 Systems Theory Thoughts 578 SOCIAL ARCHITECTURE OBSERVATIONS 588 SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE COMMENTS 590 CLOSING REMARKS 591 BIBLIOGRAPHY 595 COVID-19 595 Research 595 Internet Databases 605 World Health Organization 605 Government 606 Books 609 Wikipedia 609 Popular Media 610 Industry 617 SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVES 618 INDEX 621 Tables Table 1 2020 COVID-19 Disaster Prediction Assumptions 1 to 3 Results 8 Table 2 Vaccination Results 10 Table 3 System To Eradicate Current and Future Viruses 17 Table 4 Virus Eradication Time 18 Table 5 Various Disease Herd Immunity Levels 19 Table 6 Stakeholder List 37 Table 7 Virus Defense Functions 42 Table 8 Epidemic Pandemic Functional Decomposition 43 Table 9 Virus Defense Functions Assessment 44 Table 10 Virus Defense Functions and Resources 45 Table 11 Infection and Death Rates (Actual and Projections) 50 Table 12 Case fatality rates (%) by age and country 52 Table 13 Case fatality rates (%) by age in the United States 53 Table 14 Infection Fatality Rates & Probability of Severe Disease 53 Table 15 US Wars Battle Deaths 53 Table 16 Early Cases & Deaths by Country 56 Table 17 Return To Life Systems Performance Green 76 Table 18 Return To Life Systems Performance Yellow 78 Table 19 Return To Life Systems Performance Orange 78 Table 20 Return To Life Systems Performance Red 79 Table 21 Life Expectancy 81 Table 22 Life Expectancy & Technology 86 Table 23 COVID-19 Long Term Health Effects - No Numbers 90 Table 24 UV Applications 100 Table 25 UV Exposure Infection Destruction Time 102 Table 26 UV Infection Destruction Power Density and AUC 103 Table 27 FAR UV-222 and Other UV Applications 109 Table 28 FAR UV-222 Virus & Inactivation Percent 110 Table 29 FAR UV-222 Virus Inactivation Power Density 110 Table 30 AUC Rates Sampling (Various Standards) 114 Table 31 ACH Rates Min and Max (Various Standards) 115 Table 32 ACH rates WHO Natural Ventilation 116 Table 33 AUC Maximum Rates 118 Table 34 Sneeze Analysis 121 Table 35 Virus Load Air Exchanges Needed 122 Table 36 Event Based Air Exchanges Needed 124 Table 37 Probability of Exposure Air Exchanges Needed 124 Table 38 CDC Airborne Contaminant Removal Model 125 Table 39 Full Picture Static Model 126 Table 40 HVAC And Open Ventilation 130 Table 41 Small Building Design Example 130 Table 42 UV Industry Vendors and Organizations 134 Table 43 Vendor Datasheet 135 Table 44 Vendor Datasheet 135 Table 45 UV-C Whole House Design 135 Table 46 UV-C HOA Club House Design 136 Table 47 UV-C Permissible Exposure Times (PET) 137 Table 48 FAR UV-222 Companies and Organizations 141 Table 49 UV-222 House Design 142 Table 50 UV-222 HOA Club House Design 142 Table 51 UV Infrastructure Cost Estimates 143 Table 52 Infection Rate Mental Model Data 164 Table 53 R0 for Diseases SARS MERS COVID-19 177 Table 54 Virus Bacteria and Sizes 181 Table 55 Virus Mitigation Subsystems Performance 187 Table 56 Mutated Virus Mitigation Architecture Tradeoff 188 Table 57 Previous Architecture Alternatives 191 Table 58 Dilution Based On Distance 194 Table 59 Dilution Based on Wind and Distance 195 Table 60 - Dilution Wind Distance Risks Locations Scenarios 195 Table 61 Indoor Space With Massive Air Mixing 197 Table 62 Indoor Space With No Air Mixing 198 Table 63 Indoor Mask Effects No Social Distancing No Ventilation 199 Table 64 Indoor Mask Effects With Social Distancing No Ventilation 200 Table 65 Wells-Riley Equation Scenarios Summary 203 Table 66 Wells-Riley Equation Scenarios Details Indoors 205 Table 67 Wells-Riley Equation Scenarios Details Outside No Masks 208 Table 68 Nuclear Engineering Model Outside Infection Scenarios 212 Table 69 Current US Infrastructure Virus Concentration 215 Table 70 Outdoor Risk Settings 231 Table 71 Indoor Ventilated Risk Settings 232 Table 72 Indoor Unventilated Risk Settings 233 Table 73 Mask Risk Settings 234 Table 74 Wells-Riley Probability Scenarios Summary 235 Table 75 Ground Public Transit Probability of Infection 238 Table 76 Virus Exposure Risk - Distance 239 Table 77 Virus Exposure Risk - Distance and Wind 240 Table 78 Virus Exposure Risk - Well-Riley Probability 241 Table 79 Modeling Equations 242 Table 80 2020 Holiday Travel Infections and Deaths 252 Table 81 Certification Approach 256 Table 82 Local Reaction Grading Scale 260 Table 83 Systemic Event Grading Scale 261 Table 84 Scale of Fever 261 Table 85 Vaccine Approaches 268 Table 86 Vaccine Platforms 268 Table 87 Vaccine Types and Immunity Responses 269 Table 88 mRNA Vaccine Ingredients 278 Table 89 Operation Warp Speed Companies 280 Table 90 Vaccine Systems Perspective 299 Table 91 Initial Vaccine Delivery Rate 304 Table 92 Vaccine Delivery Rate Model 304 Table 93 Doses Received and Vaccinations Given 304 Table 94 Vaccination Distribution Systems Performance Jan 2021 308 Table 95 Disinfectants and Inactivating Agents 314 Table 96 Decontamination Architecture Approaches 316 Table 97 Products Vendors and Associations 322 Table 98 Scenarios and Exposure Risk 324 Table 99 Home Protocols 325 Table 100 Risk of Infection with Masks and Quarantine 328 Table 101 Engaging in Life Events Risk and Confidence Levels 1 of 2 330 Table 102 Engaging in Life Events Risk and Confidence Levels 2 of 2 331 Table 103 Pre-COVID-19 Systems Engineering Design Review 335 Table 104 Safe Facilities and Vaccine 335 Table 105 Post COVID-19 Systems Engineering Design Review 336 Table 106 President Trump Quotes During COVID-19 Disaster 363 Table 107 Suffering and Happiness Potential for Conflict 376 Table 108 Suffering and Happiness Potential Conflict Ranges 376 Table 109 Suffering and Happiness Potential for System Instability 377 Table 110 Requirement Traceability Matrix (RTM) 432 Table 111 Parent Child Report 432 Table 112 Child Parent Report 433 Table 113 Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs and Democracy Stability 462 Table 114 Generic List of Stakeholders 466 Table 115 Internal Sustainability and Maturity Levels 523 Table 116 Our Progress to Date 529 Table 117 Technology Readiness Levels - NASA 533 Table 118 Security Threat Assessment Levels 540 Table 119 Penetration Analysis Criteria 542 Table 120 Caffeine Levels 556 Table 121 Socratic Method General Questions 572 Table 122 System Management Tools 582 Table 123 What Applies to All Systems 583 Table 124 Social Architecture Types and Characteristics 588 Figures Figure 1 1918 Flu Pandemic 4 Figure 2 2020 COVID-19 Disaster Prediction Assumption 1 5 Figure 3 2020 COVID-19 Disaster Prediction Assumption 2 6 Figure 4 2020 COVID-19 Disaster Prediction Assumption 3 6 Figure 5 2020 COVID-19 Disaster 7 Figure 6 2021 COVID-19 Disaster Departs 1918 Trend 8 Figure 7 Virus Defense System Functional Block Diagram 43 Figure 8 COVID-19 Life Expectancy Change 85 Figure 9 Swarthmore Public School Classroom circa 1937 - 1943 98 Figure 10 Skin UV Damage 101 Figure 11 FAR UV-222 Lights Installed 108 Figure 12 Natural and Mechanical Ventilation Buildings 128 Figure 13 Hospital Room Positive/Negative Pressure 129 Figure 14 Swarthmore Public School Classroom 133 Figure 15 Public School UV Light Installation circa 2020 138 Figure 16 Public School UV Light Installation circa 1937 - 1943 138 Figure 17 FAR UV-222 Airport Application 140 Figure 18 Airplane Passenger Compartment 146 Figure 19 Enclosed Space 146 Figure 20 Outdoor Space Tent 147 Figure 21 Outdoor Open Space 147 Figure 22 Student Desk Negative Pressure Vents 148 Figure 23 Workstation Negative Pressure Vents 148 Figure 24 Restaurant Table Negative Pressure Vents 149 Figure 25 Crowd Negative Pressure Vents 149 Figure 26 Negative Pressure Floor, Walkway, Pad 150 Figure 27 Droplet and Aerosol Transmission 151 Figure 28 Droplets and Aerosols Sneeze Cough and Exhale 152 Figure 29 Droplets and Aerosols Mask Mitigation 153 Figure 30 Airflow Airplane Passenger Area Mask Mitigation 154 Figure 31 Airflow Car Closed Windows Mask Mitigation 155 Figure 32 Airflow Car Open Windows Mask Mitigation 156 Figure 33 Airflow Hospital Mask Mitigation 156 Figure 34 Airflow Hospital Ceiling Fans Mask Mitigation 157 Figure 35 Restaurant Exposure 170 Figure 36 Workplace Exposure 171 Figure 37 Indoor Classroom Converted to Outdoor Environment 219 Figure 38 Open Windows Public School Cafeteria circa 1908 219 Figure 39 Classroom Design Swarthmore Public School 220 Figure 40 Classroom Ventilation On 221 Figure 41 Classroom Ventilation Off 222 Figure 42 R0 Airplane Flight Hong Kong to Beijing on March 15, 2003 249 Figure 43 R0 Airplane Flight London to Hanoi on March 2, 2020 250 Figure 44 Probability of Contact With Infected Person On Airplane 251 Figure 45 Probability of Being Infected On Airplane 252 Figure 46 Operation Warp Speed Distribution Process 303 Figure 47 Philadelphia Schools COVID-19 Approach 2021 339 Figure 48 Facilities Swarthmore Public School Classroom 1937-1943 340 Figure 49 Facilities Public School UV Light Installation circa 2020 340 Figure 50 Facilities Airport 341 Figure 51 Ideal System Convergence 345 Figure 52 Ideal System Loss 345 Figure 53 Organizational Effectiveness 346 Figure 54 Pre-Privatization US Federal Government 349 Figure 55 Post Privatization US Federal Government 350 Figure 56 Systems Architecture Big Picture 351 Figure 57 Second Wave Accountability 362 Figure 58 Research and Development 419 Figure 59 Pre-Privatization US Federal Government 420 Figure 60 Post Privatization US Federal Government 420 Figure 61 Systems Architecture Big Picture 421 Figure 62 Ideal System Convergence 424 Figure 63 Ideal System Loss 424 Figure 64 Organizational Failure Scenarios - Effectiveness over Time 425 Figure 65 Cause and Effect 428 Figure 66 Causal Relationships 429 Figure 67 Causal Relationship State Change 429 Figure 68 Document Tree 431 Figure 69 Creativity Innovation Event 458 Figure 70 Creativity Innovation Iteration 458 Figure 71 Creativity and Innovation Process 459 Figure 72 Less Obvious Stakeholders 466 Figure 73 Precisely Defined Stakeholders 467 Figure 74 Groups and Benefiting Stakeholders 467 Figure 75 Social and Market Needs in a Democracy 472 Figure 76 Generic Context Diagram 473 Figure 77 Context Diagram - Vacation House 474 Figure 78 Context Diagram - My House 475 Figure 79 Context Diagram - My House in the Community 475 Figure 80 Satellite System Concept Diagram 476 Figure 81 Functional Block Diagram Level 1 479 Figure 82 Functional Decomposition Level 2 479 Figure 83 Decomposition and Allocations 480 Figure 84 Functional Allocations 480 Figure 85 Functions Allocated to Physical Elements Become Subsystems 481 Figure 86 Unbalanced Architecture 482 Figure 87 Balanced Outstanding Physical Architecture Design 483 Figure 88 End to End System Performance Degradation 484 Figure 89 Breakthrough Outstanding Design Performance 486 Figure 90 System Architecture Development 487 Figure 91 System Architecture Abstraction Levels 487 Figure 92 System Architecture Development Sources 488 Figure 93 Supply and Demand Graphs 493 Figure 94 Offerings and Demand 495 Figure 95 Sustainable Architecture Depiction - Sankey Diagram 500 Figure 96 Centralized Architecture 501 Figure 97 Fully Distributed Architecture 502 Figure 98 Model Verification and Validation 504 Figure 99 Implementation Architecture Design and Industrial Base 505 Figure 100 Needs of the Highway Systems 1955-1984 506 Figure 101 Hughes NASA Surveyor Lunar Lander 507 Figure 102 Hughes Syncom 2 First Geosynchronous Satellite 508 Figure 103 Hughes Galileo Spacecraft 509 Figure 104 JPL Viking Lander and Mars Landscape 509 Figure 105 TRW Pioneer 10 Probe and Plaque 510 Figure 106 Voyager Space Probe 511 Figure 107 Space Shuttle 513 Figure 108 Pre-Privatization System Architecture 514 Figure 109 Post Privatization System Architecture 515 Figure 110 Early Bird - First Communications Satellite 516 Figure 111 Intelsat IV Communication satellite 517 Figure 112 Earth Rising Seen from Moon and Neil Armstrong on Moon 523 Figure 113 Technology and Sustainability - Sankey Diagram 524 Figure 114 Sustainable Community 525 Figure 115 Infrastructure Manufacturing Services 528 Figure 116 From Necessities to Luxuries 529 Figure 117 Security Perimeter 541 Figure 118 Human Information Processing System 553 Figure 119 Work Shifts - Daily Time Allocation Alternatives 557 Figure 120 Designers and Medium 564 Figure 121 Socratic Discourse Alternatives 571 Figure 122 Action Centric Model 573 Figure 123 Linear Thinking 575 Figure 124 Nonlinear Thinking 576 Figure 125 Linear Thinking Complex Problem 576 Figure 126 Nonlinear Thinking Complex Problem 577 Figure 127 System Transfer Function with Feedback 578 Figure 128 Potential System Outputs 579 Figure 129 Single Input Single Output System 580 Figure 130 Multiple Input Multiple Output Complex Systems 581 Figure 131 System Development as a System 581 Figure 132 System Solution 582 Figure 133 Mitigating Negative Emergence 583 Figure 134 System Evolution 584 Figure 135 Architecture Validation 584 Figure 136 Prototype Validation 585 Figure 137 System Validation 585 Figure 138 Potential SEMP Diagram 588 Systems Perspectives Privatization Observations Observation 1 Momentum 426 Observation 2 Hysteresis 426 Observation 3 Cause and Effect and Balance of Power 429 Observation 4 Key Requirements and Specifications 454 Observation 5 Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs 462 Observation 6 Ethics 463 Observation 7 Organizational Capabilities 464 Observation 8 Children Mask Needs 467 Observation 9 Divergent Stakeholder Needs 468 Observation 10 Nonmarket Social Needs 471 Observation 11 System Boundary 477 Observation 12 Functions Performance and Subsystems 478 Observation 13 Architecture Drawings 489 Observation 14 Previous Century Systems 512 Observation 15 Privatization Architecture Failure 518 Observation 16 Misuse of Technology 520 Observation 17 Sustainability and Progress 531 Observation 18 Large Complex Systems 532 Observation 19 Human Factors 552 Observation 20 Non-Deterministic and Artificial Intelligence Systems 561 Observation 21 Critical Thinking 566 Observation 22 Scientific Method 569 Observation 23 Systems Theory Thoughts 587 Observation 24 Social Architecture Observations 590
